美国机械：建筑与租赁设备——6月道奇建筑开工及最新超级项目解析

Construction & Rental Equipment: June Dodge ConstructionStarts and the latest mega project starts What’s the latest data on mega projects and construction starts? How is mega project activitytrending? In this note, we look into these topics, update the latest Dodge construction startsdata, and provide and update on mega projects.To gain recurring access to the excel-based version of this data feed, please reach out to your Bernstein salesperson. Chad Dillard+1 917 344 8469chad.dillard@bernsteinsg.com Miguel Marques, CFA+1 917 344 8432miguel.marques@bernsteinsg.com Dodge Non Resi Construction Starts had a mixed read in June.In June, total Non Resistarts increased ~3% Y/Y in value, vs. prior month’s ~+60%. Building declined ~15% Y/Y, vs. prior month’s ~+30%, whilst Non Resi Non building grew ~35% Y/Y vs prior month’s+ ~100%. However, Nonresidential sq ft declined by ~10% YoY, vs prior month’s ~-10%.MoM Sq ft of -1% was weaker than the typical average of ~+10%. The Y/Y decline in sqft was mainly driven by warehouses and manufacturing plants, despite a strong read inmanufacturing the prior month. Non Resi pricing declined ~4% Y/Y vs prior month’s ~+40%. On the other hand, the residential sector was flat YoY in terms of value, vs ~-7%the prior month, and ~+2% YoY in sq ft (vs ~-4% the prior month). In terms of value, on andtwo-family houses rebounded +3% Y/Y each, whilst apartments declined Y/Y by 4%, adeceleration from prior month’s -13% . Housing affordability is still below the 2019-20levels. Early reads of 2026 exhibited a small deterioration after the improvement seen in2025. Will Kirkness+44 20 7676 8355will.kirkness@bernsteinsg.com Filippo Giardini+44 20 7762 4723filippo.giardini@bernsteinsg.com James Hooper+44 20 7676 6995james.hooper@bernsteinsg.com Pujarini Ghosh, CFA+44 20 7676 6807pujarini.ghosh@bernsteinsg.com June mega project construction starts decelerated after a strong May.Mega project starts totaled ~$16B in June, down ~50% from the prior month. The largest project tobreak ground during the last month was the CTA Red Line Extension Project in Illinois for~$4B, which represented ~25% of June mega projects. During the month of June, MegaProjects accounted for ~17% of all non resi starts, slightly below the TTM ~20% average.Looking over the last 12 months, LNG, public infrastructure and data centers representedthe largest portion of the mega projects (almost ~70%), followed by manufacturing,renewables and other. The manufacturing portion used to be the largest portion (23%), buthas encountered some headwinds (especially on the EVs side). Specialist Sales Steve Song+1 917 344 8401steve.song@bernsteinsg.com BERNSTEIN TICKER TABLE INVESTMENT IMPLICATIONS US Machinery & Electricals We maintain ourOutperformrating(s) on:Trimble(TRMB, TP $85),Jacobs(J, TP $163),PACCAR(PCAR, TP $142),Legence(LGN, $103),Hubbell(HUBB, $584),Eaton(ETN, $534) andUnited Rentals(URI, $1,153). We maintain ourMarket-Performrating(s) onAGCO(TP $118),Caterpillar(CAT, TP $1,002),Deere(DE, TP $615),Cummins(CMI, TP $700),Titan America(TTAM, $17) andOshkosh(OSK, TP $138), andQuanta(PWR, TP $725). European Chemicals We rateArkema Market-Perform.Our initiation is linked here, and our upgrade is linked here. The short-term will be supportedby the acrylics cycle, but we see a key part of the Arkema bull case as an improvement in US construction, as performance iscorrelated with US starts by $ value ex-infrastructure. June’s starts (non-resi -14% and resi 0%) have seen non-residentialbreaking a series of positive reads since March, with residential remaining weak after the -7% of May. This downtick inresidential starts, due to depressed housing affordability (Exhibit 23), seems to reflect the effect of higher inflation, which could upend expectations of a recovery driven by interest rates. Nonetheless, April and March were the first months since September2025 in which both measures were positive and June was not negative, so it may be too early to draw firm conclusions about thetrajectory of residential starts. European Business Services We maintain an Outperform rating on Sunbelt with a target price of $96. This is based on an unchanged 2.7x CY27e EV/IC(range 1.5-4.0x) driven by higher fleet. US & European Building Materials Amrize(TP $70.00),CRH(TP $150.00),Heidelberg(TP €230.00), andSika(TP CHF190.00) have the largest US exposureacross our coverage, and we rate all of themOutperform. Our sector initiation is linked here and our Amrize initiation here.Saint-Gobain(Market-Perform, TP €77.00),Rockwool(Outperform, TP DKK245.00) andKingspan(Market-Perform, TP€72.00) have less than 20% sales exposure to the US.Geberit(Underperform, TP CHF465.00) has virtually no US exposure. DETAILS CONSTRUCTION STARTS DATA EXHIBIT 3:The Y/Y change was mainly driven by schools and manufacturing plants EXHIBIT 9:The % of end markets (measured in value and ex resi) with a positive growth rate rebounded to 60%, inline with the histori