机械与电气：CEO会议要点 - 电力、建筑及农业周期更新

Machinery & Electricals: Takeaways from our CEO conference -updates on the power, construction & ag cycles Last week, we hosted 7 companies at our 42ndannual CEO-focused Strategic Decisionsconference (CMI, DE, HUBB, J, LGN, PWR, and TTAM). Below are the takeaways: Chad Dillard+1 917 344 8469chad.dillard@bernsteinsg.com Power scarcity is structural, and the winners will be those controlling infrastructurechoke-points.Following last week’s highly anticipated analyst day,CMIreiterated itsdisciplined approach into prime power. With pilot programs expected by 2H28 and greaterscale come ‘29-30, mgmt views the prime opportunity as a call option through the endof the decade. The new nat gas recip engine represents ~$100M of the total announced$450M investment, representing a low risk, high reward outcome given CMI has a right-to-win on the back of its track record: they have relationships with large hyperscalers, engagein strategic conversations about capacity beyond 2030, and already see firm orders fortheir core 95L diesel genset out to 2028. Competitors like GNRC or MTU (Rolls Royce)either don’t have a well-established product or industrial channel. ForPWR, growth iscentered on vertical integration driven by M&A increasing both its total scope of work andthe transmission opportunity, particularly from 765 kV (see here). Their most interestingdata point:for every mile of high-voltage transmission line that is built, it results in ~10miles of interconnected transmission lines, substations and distribution upgrades.HUBBserves 85-90% of SKUs on high-voltage transmission lines, has 2x the portfolio breadth vs.peers, and is already winning early 765 kV projects.LGNis leveraging its modular capacity(300k last year to 1.3M sqft currently), enabling customers’ enhanced speed-to-market,accelerating revenue/backlog growth, and improved cash conversion. ForJ,~10% of itsrevenues are generated from the AI ecosystems, growing at a 40% CAGR, with energy &power being another 5%, growing at strong double-digits. Miguel Marques, CFA+1 917 344 8432miguel.marques@bernsteinsg.com Specialist Sales Steve Song+1 917 344 8401steve.song@bernsteinsg.com Non-resi has bottomed and continues improving.ForLGN, data centers remain theprimary growth driver (60% of backlog, growing 200%+ Y/Y) though growth is broadeningout (life sciences+7%, education +15%, and gov’t +104%).Jexpects the BUILD America250 Act will catalyze another 3-4ppts of growth in its civil business from low-to-mid singlegrowth (IIJA).HUBBis also siting a steady improvement in non-resi order books over thelast few months. ForDE, C&F has been a standout, and mgmt is focused on volumes andmargin improvement viaa)increasing tech adoption in roadbuilding,b)bringing its largeexcavator in-house by ‘29, andc)more aggressively focusing on rental (creating furthercompetitive pressure for incumbents). The ag cycle has yet to inflect, but there are multiple levers that could trigger arecovery.This includesa)policy support following the House’s recent approval of year- round E15 sales (which now awaits Senate approval), the EPA’s higher biomass-baseddiesel volume blend requirements, and SDRP payments doubling;b)elevated fleet ages(combines at 7 years vs 6-year avg; large tractors 2-3 years above normal) and much-improved inventories. DE sited that MY22 used 8R tractors are 70-80% of where they wantto be, but current progress points to an improved outlook by year-end; andc)Brazil couldbenefit from interest rate cuts, subsidized credit programs, and/or election-driven stimulusbefore year-end. All in, considering DE’s most profitable segments (US & Brazil large ag) areat cycle lows, an even modest demand recovery can drive significant margin expansion. BERNSTEIN TICKER TABLE INVESTMENT IMPLICATIONS We maintain our ratings/target prices onCMI(MP, $700),DE(MP, $615),HUBB(OP, $584),J(OP, $163),LGN(OP, $103),PWR(MP, $725), andTTAM(MP, $17). DETAILS RELATED RESEARCH: •25 May 2026 - Eaton: The portfolio transformation underway and what the market is missing(SDC best Idea pitch)•21 May 2026 - Deere: Construction gives, Ag takes•21 May 2026 - Cummins: 2026 Analyst Day - Entering prime power market, but guide falls short•20 May 2026 - US Industrials & Tech: The Data Center Project Pipeline - Capacity, Construction & Cancellations (April '26)•31 Mar 2026 - Quanta 2026 Investor Day: The organic and inorganic flywheel•17 Mar 2026 - U.S. Machinery: The Reshoring Report - 2026 manufacturing capital budgets signal start of the next wave•8 Feb 2026 - The Long View: Powering AI: 765 kV transmission deep dive - the pipeline, TAM, and winners FIRESIDE CHAT TAKEAWAYS QUANTA SERVICES (PWR) Presenter(s):Duke Austin (CEO) & Jayshree Desai (CFO); May 28, 2026 - 1:30 pm EST Key takeaway(s):Positive tone behind long-term durable tailwinds from growth in transmission and distribution, and datacenters. Conversations with utility customers extend beyond 2030 and scope of work is growing due to vertical