强生：2030年实现两位数增长；CEO会议要点

Lee Hambright+1 917 344 8429lee.hambright@bernsteinsg.com Johnson & Johnson Deeksha Pandey+1 917 344 8447deeksha.pandey@bernsteinsg.com RatingMarket-Perform Price Target 251.00 USD Johnson & Johnson: Double-digit growth by 2030; CEO meetingtakeaways We hosted JNJ CEO Joaquin Duato for a fireside chat and investor meetings on May 27thduring our 42nd annual Strategic Decisions Conference (SDC) in New York. JNJ reaffirmedthe company’s goal to achieve double-digit growth by 2030, emphasizing that this can bedriven by the company’s existing portfolio and a largely de-risked pipeline without relying onM&A. Management highlighted several areas where JNJ believes the market underestimatespotential: RYBREVANT, INLEXZO, ICOTYDE, Cardiovascular in MedTech, and Ottavarobotic-assisted surgery. The company also stressed JNJ’s resilience in a complex macroenvironment. Overall, Duato offered a confident outlook, arguing there is clear visibility tosustained growth acceleration for JNJ. [continued on page 2] Investment ImplicationsWe rate JNJ Market-Performwith a price target of $251 using a target P/E multiple of19.5x against our forward Q5-Q8 EPS estimate of $12.88. For more color, see our1Q25recap or September Healthcare Conference highlights. Model: JNJ. DETAILS Committed to delivering double-digit growth by 2030 CEO Joaquin Duato reiterated JNJ’s commitment to reaching double-digit growth by the end of the decade, and he made it clearthat the company can get there with JNJ’s existing portfolio across Innovative Medicine and MedTech—in other words, no M&Ais required to reach double-digit growth by 2030. Looking back, management sees 2025 as a “catapult year” where JNJ provedits ability to grow MSD despite the entry of STELARA biosimilars in the U.S. Looking ahead, management reiterated their growthalgorithm where 2026 should grow faster than 2025, and 2027 faster than 2026. The company stressed that these ambitionsare grounded in the current portfolio and a “largely de-risked” pipeline, i.e., not dependent on future M&A. “J&J is built for times like this” There are clearly a lot of moving pieces in the macro environment, including shifting trade policies, geopolitical tensions andregulatory changes. Duato argued that JNJ is well-equipped to navigate all types of macro scenarios given the company’sdiversified portfolio of businesses and strong balance sheet flexibility. Pricing.While JNJ believes it is important to improve access to patients in the U.S., they do not see the importing of foreign pricecontrols (via Most Favored Nation-type constructs) as an effective way to achieve that goal. Instead, the company sees reformstargeting intermediaries (which management believes capture more than 50% of the value) and a refocusing of the 340Bprogram to its original intent as more effective ways to fund lower patient out-of-pocket costs without undermining innovation. What’s the Street missing? Across their diverse portfolio, management highlighted five areas where they believe Street expectations are too low, especiallyas compared to internal projections. In Innovative Medicine, JNJ sees significantly more upside for RYBREVANT, INLEXZO, andICOTYDE, while in MedTech, management believes the Street is underestimating the earnings power of their Cardiovascularfranchise and the potential contribution from OTTAVA (robotic-assisted surgery). Aiming to be the #1 Oncology company by 2030 ($50bn revenue) Within Oncology, JNJ reaffirmed their ambition to be the #1 oncology company by 2030 with over $50bn in sales.Management emphasized that consensus was still a few billion short of that $50bn target (latest ~$47.7bn), highlightingRYBREVANT and INLEXZO as particularly underappreciated assets within this segment by the Street. RYBREVANT breadth.Management argues the Street isn’t giving RYBREVANT enough credit for its growth potential acrossmultiple indications. In EGFR-mutated non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC), RYBREVANT plus LAZCLUZE is the only chemo-free regimen to demonstrate overall survival benefit in the first-line setting, and already treats 1 in 4 patients across all therapylines. Given its strong clinical proof in chemo-free treatments and that it’s widely used in practice, Management believesRYBREVANT/LAZCLUZE growth will be steady and building over the quarters. Beyond NSCLC, JNJ is advancing RYBREVANTinto other cancer indications where EGFR and cMET are also oncogenic drivers: head and neck cancer (with second-linedata expected at ASCO, subsequent Phase 3 in first-line planned) and colorectal cancer, with development planned withinthis decade. On top of that, management believes the Jan 2026 approval of RYBREVANT FASPRO improves conveniencewith a subcutaneous formulation (injected just under the skin, rather than through an IV drip), as well as aligns with oncologistexpectations with a once-a-month dosing regimen. Together, JNJ believes this combination of strong clinical results, expandingindications, a