强生2026年第一季度：尽管面临Stelara的不利影响仍实现稳健增长，医疗器械业务前景令人鼓舞

Lee Hambright+1 917 344 8429lee.hambright@bernsteinsg.com Deeksha Pandey+1 917 344 8447deeksha.pandey@bernsteinsg.com RatingMarket-Perform Price Target 251.00 USD(225.00OLD) Johnson & Johnson 1Q26: Solid growth despite Stelara headwind,and an encouraging read for medtech Solid start to 2026,as sales grew 5.3% organic (1.7% beat) despite a 540-bps headwindfrom Stelara, with strength across Innovative Medicine (5.6% growth; 2.4% beat) andMedTech (4.7% growth; 1% beat). Adj EPS of $2.70 landed in line with consensus ($2.69).There was no evidence of material weather- or flu-related procedure deferrals in JNJ Q1results, which medtech investors should find encouraging. Guidance up slightly.JNJ raised FY26 adj operational sales growth guidance by 20bpsto 5.6%-6.6% and raised EPS guidance by 2 cents to $11.45-$11.65. JNJ is on track for$100B annual revenue in 2026, and the company is confident about having line of sight todouble-digit revenue growth by the end of the decade. Strong performance continues in Pharmadespite steep Stelara headwind, 920 bps topharma growth. TREMFYA is firing on all cylinders (64% growth), INLEXZO has a permanentJ-code (effective April 1st) that should catalyze growth, and ICOTYDE is ramping quickly (seeour expert call takeaways). Management still believes several assets are underappreciated bythe Street (e.g., ICOTYDE, RYBREVANT, INLEXZO). MedTech moving along.U.S. EP growth was soft sequentially (~1% miss) due to risingcompetition, but overall results were good across the portfolio: Cardiovascular beat by 1.3%,Orthopedics by 2.4%, and Surgery and Vision Care were in line. JNJ argues that the Streetunderestimates growth potential for its next-gen PFA catheters, Impella ECP, and OTTAVA. Investment Implications We rate JNJ Market-Perform with a price target of $251(up from $225) using a targetP/E multiple of 19.5x (up from 18x to reflect improving growth outlook) against our forwardQ5-Q8 EPS estimate of $12.88 (up from $12.38). For more color, see our September Healthcare Conference highlights and our 4Q25 recap. Model: JNJ. DETAILS Solid quarter with 1.7% top-line beat despite Stelara headwind Sales of $24.1bn grew 5.3% organicdespite a 540-bps headwind from declining Stelara sales. Growth in the U.S. was 6.2%organic and 4% organic outside the U.S. Acquisitions and divestitures had a net positive impact on worldwide growth of 110bps, primarily driven by the Intra-Cellular acquisition. JNJ is on track to meet 2026 target of $100B annual revenue for thefirst time, and management is confident progress will continue to improve into 2027 with line of sight to double-digit revenuegrowth by the end of the decade. Adj EPS declined 2.5% to $2.70, in line with consensus ($2.69).COGS deleveraged by 10 bps driven by the impact oftariffs and other operational drivers in the MedTech business and unfavorable mix in the Innovative Medicine business. This waspartially offset by favorable translational currency in the Innovative Medicine business. SG&A deleveraged by 180 bps driven byheavier investment in new launches early in the year and increased investment related to the acquisition of Intra-Cellular in theInnovative Medicine business. R&D remained flat at 14.7% of sales. Looking at adj income before tax by segmentfor the quarter, Innovative Medicine margin declined from 42.5% to 39.7%,primarily driven by heavier investment in new launches early in the year, unfavorable product mix and certain favorable one-timeitems recorded in 2025, partially offset by favorable translational currency. MedTech margin declined from 25.9% to 22.3%,primarily driven by the impact of tariffs and cost of products sold and certain favorable one-time items recorded in 2025.Overall, adj income before tax for the enterprise as a percentage of sales decreased from 36.6% to 32.5%. FY 26 sales, EPS guidance comes up by just a touch Management raised sales, adj EPS guidance for FY 2026 by ~20bps at the midpoint to (1) adj operational sales growth of5.6%-6.6% (vs prior 5.4%-6.4%) and (2) adj EPS of $11.45-$11.65 (vs prior $11.43-$11.63). P&L considerations.In 2026, JNJ benefits from a 53rd week in the financial calendar worth ~100 bps to full year sales growth(53rd week impacts 4Q26). The Intra-Cellular benefit laps in Q2. Heavier investment is expected in 1H26 vs 2H26 while higher EPS growth is expected in 2H26 vs 1H26. Phasing considerations.For Innovative Medicine, JNJ set expectations for: (1) more pronounced impact from newly launchedproducts as the year progresses, (2) generic competition for OPSUMIT (second half in U.S.) and SIMPONI (first half in EU;potentially second half in U.S.), and (3) impact of voluntary agreement with the U.S. government to be evenly distributedthroughout the year. For MedTech, JNJ expects (1) continued acceleration of newly launched products as the year progresseswith normalized seasonality, (2) surgery transformation sales headwinds to increase through the year, and (3) additi