美国机械设备：5月道奇建筑开工与最新大型项目启动情况

Construction & Rental Equipment: May Dodge Construction Startsand the latest mega project starts What’s the latest data on mega projects and construction starts? How is mega project activitytrending? In this note, we look into these topics, update the latest Dodge construction startsdata, and provide and update on mega projects.To gain recurring access to the excel-based version of this data feed, please reach out to your Bernstein salesperson. Chad Dillard+1 917 344 8469chad.dillard@bernsteinsg.com Miguel Marques, CFA+1 917 344 8432miguel.marques@bernsteinsg.com Dodge Non Resi Construction Starts had a mixed read in May.In May, total NonResi starts increased ~60% Y/Y in value, vs. prior month’s ~+30%. Building increased~30% Y/Y, vs. prior month’s ~25%, whilst Non Resi Non building grew 100% Y/Y vs priormonth’s + ~30%. However, Nonresidential sq ft declined by almost ~10% YoY, vs priormonth’s ~+10%. MoM Sq ft of +12% was weaker than the typical average of ~+15%.The Y/Y decline in sq ft was mainly driven by warehouses and misc, despite a strong readin manufacturing and offices. Non Resi pricing increased ~+40% Y/Y vs prior month’s ~+15%. On the other hand, the residential sector declined ~+7% YoY rate in terms of value,vs ~+3% the prior month, and ~-4% YoY in sq ft (vs ~+2% the prior month). In terms ofvalue, two-family houses reverted the negative trend as the category grew almost 15% Y/Y in terms of value, whilst apartments and one-family houses declined Y/Y by 13 and 3%,respectively. Housing affordability is still below the 2019-20 levels. Early reads of 2026exhibited a small deterioration after the improvement seen in 2025. Will Kirkness+44 20 7676 8355will.kirkness@bernsteinsg.com Filippo Giardini+44 20 7762 4723filippo.giardini@bernsteinsg.com James Hooper+44 20 7676 6995james.hooper@bernsteinsg.com Pujarini Ghosh, CFA+44 20 7676 6807pujarini.ghosh@bernsteinsg.com May mega project construction starts also continued growing as they exhibit a~420% Y/Y growth(vs ~+150% the prior month).Mega project starts totaled ~$33Bin May, up ~100% from the prior month. The largest project to break ground during thelast month was the LNG Export Facility in Loiusiana for ~$14B, which represented ~40%of May mega projects. During the month of Apr, Mega Projects accounted for ~30% of allnon resi starts, well above the TTM ~20% average. Looking over the last 12 months, LNG,public infrastructure and data centers represented the largest portion of the mega projects( ~65%), followed by manufacturing, renewables and other. The manufacturing portionused to be the largest portion (23%), but has encountered some headwinds (especially onthe EVs side). Specialist Sales Steve Song+1 917 344 8401steve.song@bernsteinsg.com Jacobs Solutions: Biotech Construction Site Tour.Earlier this month, we visiteda biotech manufacturing construction jobsite where J designed the facility and is theconstruction manager. Shares have underperformed massively on AI-disintermediationconcerns, but our visit brought to light why these concerns are misguided. Not only is J amassive beneficiary of the advanced manufacturing build-out, but also AI is enhancing itsoperating model and the market misunderstands this.(Full details here) BERNSTEIN TICKER TABLE INVESTMENT IMPLICATIONS US Machinery & Electricals We maintain ourOutperformrating(s) on:Trimble(TRMB, TP $85),Jacobs(J, TP $163),PACCAR(PCAR, TP $138),Legence(LGN, 103),Hubbell(HUBB, $584),Eaton(ETN, $534) andUnited Rentals(URI, $1,153). We maintain ourMarket-Performrating(s) onAGCO(TP $118),Caterpillar(CAT, TP $879),Deere(DE, TP $615),Cummins(CMI, TP $700),Titan America(TTAM, $17) andOshkosh(OSK, TP $138), andQuanta(PWR, TP $725). European Chemicals We rateArkema Market-Perform.Our initiation is linked here, and our upgrade is linked here. The short-term will be supportedby the acrylics cycle, but we see a key part of the Arkema bull case as an improvement in US construction, as performance iscorrelated with US starts by $ value ex-infrastructure. May’s starts (non-resi +29% and resi −7%) continue to be strong for non-residential, with resilient developer profit margins (Exhibit 21), following April (non-resi +33% and resi +3%) and March (non-resi +5% and resi +2%). However, the downtick in residential starts, due to depressed housing affordability (Exhibit 23), seemsto reflect the effect of higher inflation, which could upend expectations of a recovery driven by interest rates. Nonetheless, April and March were the first months since September 2025 in which both measures were positive, so it may be too early to drawfirm conclusions about the trajectory of residential starts. The fundamentals remain weak for both resi and non-resi. European Business Services We maintain an Outperform rating onSunbelt(SUNB, TP $86). SUNB’s target price is based on an 2.7x CY27e EV/IC (range1.5-4.0x) which drives a $86 PT for SUNB US and GBp 6,300 for SUNB LN. Building Materials The companies in our co