亚洲基金经理调查：美联储逆风 vs 人工智能顺风

Asia Pacific note), starting in Sep. FMS investor views on the implications for Asia are mixed: nearlyhalf would maintain their Asia equity exposure following Fed hikes, a similar proportion BofA would reduce allocations.Looking ahead to the next phase of the Al cycle, Japan (28%)and the US (28%) have overtaken Taiwan (11%)as the biggest beneficiaries. Investoroptimism toward Asia ex-Japan equities improved further,reaching 89thpercentileMacro: APAC ex-Japan growth expectations have rebounded to pre-Middle East conflictlevels. China and Japan growth expectations remain sharply divergent, with Japan growth AnalyticsKaspar Lam >Research Analyst sentiment staying robust while sentiment toward China remains subdued. On Japanesemonetary policy, 60% of investors surveyed expect the next Bo) rate hike in 4Q26 (Octor Dec), broadly consistent with our Japan economist's base case for an Oct'26 hike (seenote).Valuations: 6o%of investors surveyed believe the positive impact of Al on equities isonly partially or mostly not priced in, suggesting continued scope for Al-driven upside. kaspar.lam@bofa.comWinnie Wu>Research AnalystMerrill Lynch (Hong Kong) winnie.wu@bofa.comMasashi Akutsu >>StrategistBofAS Japan Themes:Earnings continue to be the dominant driver of Japan equities,cited by 64% ofinvestors surveyed vs. 41% in Jun (Exhibit 13). Power & Energy (28%, up from 9% in Jun) masashi.akutsu@bofa.comAmish Shah, CFA >>Research AnalystBofAS India stands out as a key beneficiary within the Al value chain (Exhibit 16).Positioning: Taiwan surpassed Japan to become the most favored market, while India shah.amish@bofa.com and Indonesia stay at the bottom of investor preferences (Exhibit 18). Within Asia exJapan, Tech Hardware/Semis retained its leadership position, while Industrials rosesharply to rank third (Exhibit 19). In Japan, Semis holds onto the top spot, Banks gainedfavor,and Tech Hardwarelost somemomentum vs.June (Exhibit 21).Exhibit 1: Nearly half of investors would maintain their Asia equity exposure following Fed rate APAC: Asia PacificNotes to readers A total of 210 panelists with $555bn hikes, while an equal proportion would trim allocationsIf the US Fed were to hike rates, how would you adjust exposure to Asia equities? AUM participated in the July survey.181 participants with $484bn AUMresponded to the Global FMS questionsand101participants with $274bn AUMresponded to the Regional FMSquestions.Survey period: Jul 2-9, 2026 Reduce significantly16% Investors/clients are encouraged to sign up to participate in the Survey.This can be done by contacting MichaelHartnett or your BofA salesrepresentative. Trading ideas and investment strategies discussed herein may give rise to significant risk and arenot suitable for all investors. Investors should have experience in relevant markets and the financialresources to absorb any losses arising from applying these ideas or strategies.>> Employed by a non-US affiliate of BofAS and is not registered/qualified as a research analystunder the FINRA rulesRefer to'Other Important Disclosures'for information on certain BofA Securities entities that take Participants in the survey receive thefull set of results for the months inwhich they participate. responsibility for the information herein in particular jurisdictions.BofA Securities does and seeks to do business with issuers covered in its research Exhibit 2: APAC ex-Japan growth expectations have recovered to pre-Middle East conflict levels Exhibit 3: Inflation expectations continue to ease in July,moving closer to the long-termaverageNet % expecting higher inflation in Asia Pacific ex-Japan in the next 12 months at 11th percentile historicallyNet % deeming consensus EPS estimates for the coming year as high remaining robust while China sentiment stays negativeNet % expecting stronger Chinese and Japanese economies in the next 12 months When do you think the BOJ next rate hike will be? Exhibit 8: Investor optimism toward Asia ex-Japan equities rose to 8gth percentile in July Expected upsidefor APAC ex-Japan equities over the next 12 months FMS views on expected upside for Japan equities over the next 12 months Exhibit 12: Within China, Al/semis and buybacks/dividend remain key investor priorities Exhibit 15: Japan and US have overtaken Taiwan as the clearest beneficiaries of the next phase of theAl cycleWhich market benefits most from the next phase of the Al cycle? Exhibit 17: The lack of a clear Al exposure remains the key concern for Indian equities, with weakgrowth emerging as the next most important riskWhat is your key concern for Indian market? PositioningExhibit 18:Taiwan surpassed Japan to become the most favored market, while India and Indonesia remain the least favoredAsia Pacific market sentiment: Net % overweight Exhibit 19: Tech Hardware/Semis retained the top spot, while Industrials climbed sharply to rank thirdAsia Pacific ex-Japan sector sentiment: Net % overweight Healthcare/P