美银大宗商品技术优势黄金失意之年2026年下半年易承压2026071623页

Gold’s lost year Market Analysis 16 July 2026 View:Gold’s lost year may leave 2H26 vulnerableGold'sYTD correction reset an extremely stretched advance, but evidence of a durable Technical StrategyGlobalFICC and Equity low is questionable. While a TD Sequential downtrend exhaustion signal remains valid, adeath cross signal, elevated net-long positioning and similarities to major peaks in 1980and 2011 raise the risk of a longer, deeper correction. If offered, we favor modestaccumulation below $4,000, but with downside risks remaining more so adding in the$3,700-3,600 area and being allocated in the $3,450-$3,250 area. Paul Ciana, CMTTechnical StrategistBofAS+1 646 743 7014paul.ciana@bofa.com Yearly: Secular uptrend at risk of a 2011-style correction Jonathan Hartley, CMTTechnical StrategistBofASjonathan.a.hartley@bofa.com The current cycle shares similarities with the major peaks of 1980 and 2011.Thisincludes an ominous peak candle, a TD Setup“green 9”uptrend exhaustion signal andRSI reaching 90. The three bear markets since 1970 retraced at least 50% of the prioradvance, implying downside risk toward $3,315, if 2026 proves to be a major top. For more about technical analysis,please see our primer:TechnicalsExplained: In 2026, get to knowtechnical strategy 26 January 2026 Weekly:This correction may need more timeThe current correction is only 24 weeks old versus the prior 121-week advance. While gold has exceeded the 38.2% retracement at $4,149, the correction remainsdisproportionately short relative to the preceding uptrend. A rebound toward $4,325-$4,500 may precede a decline toward the 50% retracement near $3,702. We alsoconsider a 174wk look back, which implies $3,605 is a possibility. For abbreviations, please see theAppendix: Acronyms & abbreviations. For trades, please see theChartAlphasection. Daily: Bearish Death cross vs bullish TD Sequential On June 26, 2026, gold registered a "death cross" at $4,088.74 as the 50-day SMAcrossed below the 200-day SMA. Across thirty signals since 1975, gold was lower 40-50trading days later roughly 67%-70% of the time. This suggests downside risk throughlate August and early September. Conversely, a TD Sequential "red 13" signal in mid-Junesignaled downtrend exhaustion. That signal remains valid while gold holds above $3,827. Relative Strength: Goldand Newmont continue to lead We assess twelve relative trends across gold,miners, and commodities. Relative trendsfavor gold versus GDX, GDXJ, and silver; GDX versus GDXJ; and Newmont versus GDX. Top Five GDX Holdings: Prefer NEM > GDX Along with gold, the five largest GDX constituents are correcting after strong 2024-2025advances. All have broken below their 50-week SMAs, RSI trends have weakened, andMACD has crossed below zero. While several names are approaching support near keyFibonacci retracements, prior gaps, and longer-term moving averages, evidence ofdurable lows remains limited. Relative to GDX, Newmont remains the preferred name,while Barrick and AngloGold have generally held up better than Agnico Eagle andWheaton. Overall, the group remains in a correction phase rather than a new uptrend. Trading ideas and investment strategies discussed herein may give rise to significant risk and arenot suitable for all investors. Investors should have experience in relevant markets and thefinancialresources to absorb any losses arising from applying these ideas or strategies.BofA Securities does and seeks to do business with issuers covered in its researchreports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict ofinterest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider thisreport as only a single factor in making their investment decision.Refer to important disclosures on page 21 to 23. Analyst Certification on page 20.12994854 Gold daily chart Downtrend intact, conflicting signals suggest tactical approach.Gold’s downtrend since the late January spike technically remains, however buyers are defending the ~$4,000/oz area as support. Technical signals are conflicting. Bear case: The YTD downtrend remains. A June 26“Death cross”signal—when the 50dSMA crosses below the 200d SMA—favors more weakness (See next page for detail).Our wave count suggests a fifth wave lower may be required before a durable low forms.Ideally for bears, gold remains below the downtrend line and prior high near $4,202. Bull case: In mid-June, a TD Sequential "red 13" signaled downside exhaustion with arisk level at $3,827. RSI subsequently formed a bullish divergence, also suggestingselling pressure may be waning. A breakout above the downtrend line and $4,202 wouldfavor a rebound toward the 50-day SMA near $4,320, the June 17 high at $4,382, andpotentially the 200-day SMA near $4,490. Support:3943, 3866, 3827, 3703, 3500, 3384Resistance:4302, 4382, 4490, 4890 Exhibit1:Gold’sin adowntrendchannel. Death cross implies further downside however TD Sequential suggest price may tu