看好AI云服务成长：德银上调Alphabet云业务及资本支出预期

Internet Aiming for the Clouds Benjamin Black, CFA Research Analyst+1-212-250-9218Kunal Madhukar, CFA April versus the S&P500Indexup~4.5%overthe same period,primarily,inourview,on investor concerns abouta)apotential deceleration inSearch revenue,b)potential for higher capex,especially in FY27,and c) the delayed rollout of the nextversion of Gemini frontier model. At the same time, we recognize Microsoft'sshares aredown (3)%andAmazon~(7)%,suggesting that theissue maybemoreabouttherapidlygrowinghyperscalers'capex,ratherthananymodestslowdownin Search revenue and a marginaldelay in launching the next version of Gemini. Research Analyst+1-212-250-9357RaymondWong Research Associate+1-212-250-2060 On Search,web data trends appear to be improving in2Q26 sequentially.Ourchannelchecksweremoremixed,but overall,suggest Googlemaybebenefitingfrom advertisersexperimentingwithallocating budgetstotheAl-based services,includingAlOverviews.Wearemaintainingour+16.5%ylyFxNgrowthprojectionfor the quarter, and are in line with the Street. Benjamin Hui, Esq.Research Associate+1-212-250-2064 WeexpectGoogleCloud revenuetokeepaccelerating intothesecondhalfoftheyear.For 2Q26, we are projecting +70% yly FXN growth (up from +65% prior),modestlyabovetheStreet,and expectgrowthtofurtheraccelerateto+75%in2H26(versus+70%previously)despitetoughercomps. That said,fastergrowing capex is an increasing concern.Basedon our analysis ofbacklog trends,wethink Google likely may need toadd~9GW of incrementalcapacity inFY27inthebasecase.At~$35bnperGW,that impliesatotal capexof~$325bn.Accordingly,weareraisingourestimateforFY27capexto$325bnfrom~$250bn previously,and forFY28,to~$365-$370bn from~$290bn prior.Havingmix,wherethecosts to Google would be significantlylower compared withpurchasingNvidiaGPUs. We think our model may be conservative; while we are raising our capexprojections forFY27andFY28materially,wehaven'tfullyflowedthatthroughtoCloud revenue.In our base case forFY27, our analysis suggests Cloud revenuecould be~$190-$195bn,significantly higher than the Street at $142bn.If theincremental~$5obnofCloudrevenueweretoflowthroughthebottomlineconservatively,at30%margins,thatwouldbe anadditional~$15bn inGAAPOl,which would translate into an incremental~s1per share in earnings. InternetAlphabet 3 was a critical inflection that materially increased users and engagement.WhiletheremaybeadelayinthelaunchofthenextiterationofthefrontierGeminimodel,we do notseea deterioration in theusageforthe service,eitheron theweb orinapp.Moreover, the performance gains from deploying the model across the coreadvertising platform likely continues to deliver more durable revenue growthvs.expectations.Taking a longer-term view,we do notbelieve thatamodest delay intherollout of the next frontier model could impactthe underlying fundamentalsacrosstheadvertisingorcloudbusinesses. trend of commerce and services shifting from offline,physicalvenues to digitalstorefronts.Sitting atthe intersectionofmerchantsand consumers,GOOG clearlystandstobenefitfrome-commercebecoming anever-increasingchannel withinglobal retail. Its recent initiatives with agentic commerce builds on itsoverwhelming strength in Search and video. We think Alphabet's durable growthin Search,new and growing surface areas,increased verticalized shoppingexperience all serve to drive steady upward earnings revisions in Search.Separately, Cloud's growing scale could drive the timeline to profitability (andultimatelymargins)well ahead of Streetexpectations (cloudisalreadyprofitable).In addition, Waymo could beanothervectorofgrowth. The company has recentlyraised a significant amount of capitalundermultipletranches;assuch,despitehighercapex,wethinkAlphabetisadequatelyfundedfor 2026 within our coverage. We value the shares at $430 (unchanged),whichaligns with 29x (unchanged) ourFY27GAAPEPSestimate. WethinktheStreet'srevenueexpectationsforSearchmaybemodestlyhigher,but it's lower on CloudWearemaintaining our+16.5% ylyFXNgrowth outlook for Search revenue,with FXNgrowtha5Obpsaccelerationq/qona30bpseasiercomp.Ourcurrentestimateimpliesa+4.6%q/qgrowthforthequarter,whichcompareswithanaverageof~5%q/q growth in the secondquarterin the2019-2025period,excluding the moreanomalous 2020 and 2021.Our channel checks were mixed.We have heard thatsome advertisers are either keeping their spend on Search flat or reducing itmodestly given lower volume on the back of the growing focus on Al-Overviews,which reduces the need for consumers to click through to third-party sites. At thesame time,we haveheardfrom ourchecksthat some advertisers increased theiroverall spend on Search --particularly later in 2Q -- testing advertising within Al-Overviews.This likely was in conjunction with a broader push into Al-advertising,with advertisers experimenting with both Google Search and ChatGPT, and couldtougherin3Q26;weareprojecting14%ylyFXNgrowthforthequarter,unchanged,andmodestlybelowtheStreet. InternetAlphabet twoquarters,andfacestougherco