光伏产品价格持续下探 行业企业普遍亏损 仅逆变器及光伏胶膜厂商盈利

China Renewable Energy Solar Product Prices Further Dipped; Companies Loss-Making exceptInverter and PV Film Players oversupply-ledASPcuts,includingdownO.6-1.1%wowforpolysilicon,wafter,solarcellandmoduleprices.MostPRCsolarequipmentsupplierswereloss-makingin1H26Edraggedbylowproductpricesandweakdemand,except inverterandPVfilm makers.Deyeexpects its net profit tobeRmb1,480-1,540m(up81-89%yoyand25-30%qoq)in2Q26Eridingonstrongenergystoragedemandandthatof HangzhouFirstisRmb558m(+489.3%yoyand+78.8%qoq)thankstoincreasedPVfilmprices.Formodulemakers, LoNGi'snetlossreduced slightlyqoqin2Q26EwhilethatforJASolarexacerbatedyoyandqoq.PolysiliconmakerTongwei'squarterlynetlosswaslargelystableyoyand qoq.InPRC solarand ESSsector,wepreferESSmakers like SungrowandDeyewithhighshipmentvolumegrowth +852-2501-2716pierre.lau@citi.com air.ma@citi.com Polysiliconpricesfurtherdeclined-Theaveragemarketprice ofn-type grade rod-typepolysilicon declined 0.8%wowto Rmb31.6/kg,and thatforgranularpolysiliconwasunchangedatRmb31.5/kgintheweekended15Jul2026.PRCmonthlypolysiliconisexpectedtorise7.6%momtoover100ktons inJulyinfloodseason,which ismorethantheexpectedmonthlydemandof91ktons,accordingtoChinaSilicon Industry Association.Accordingto SMM,total polysiliconinventoryatproducerplantswas310ktonsasof15July,up3.0%wow. WaferandsolarcellpricesmildlydroppedwowMarketpricesofn-typewaferdeclined1.1%wowtoRmb0.86/Wfor182mmproductsand-0.9%wowatRmb1.16/Wfor210mmproducts,duetoweakdemand.SMMestimatesChinawaferproductionvolumecoulddropby3.7%momto52.3GWinJuly,and its inventorylevelincreased2.3%wowto27.9kGWasofJuly9.Capacityconsolidationhasbegunatwafer segment,withtier2and3 companies leasing outtheircapacity,accordingtoSMM.AveragesolarcellpricefurtherwasdroppedO.9%wowtoRmbO.27/WforTOPConproductsthisweek. Solarmodulepricecontinuedtodrop-AveragesolarmodulepricewasdownO.6%wowtoRmb0.71/Wfor182mmproductsthisweek.Thepricefurtherdeclineddespiteofamoderateincreaseofdownstreamdemandfromutility-scaleprojects.PRCmonthlysolarmoduleoutputisexpectedtobe+11.0%momto42.0GWinJuly,accordingto SMM. SeeAppendixA-1forAnalystCertification,ImportantDisclosuresandResearchAnalystAffiliations Notfordistribution inthePeople's RepublicofChina,excludingtheHongKongSpecial AdministrativeRegionandQualifiedForeignInstitutional Investors. citivelocity.com andatRmb15.5/m2for3.2mmones.Theindustry-wideaverageinventoryperiodwas47.8daysasofJuly9,-0.4%wow.Chinaoperationaldailysolarglassmeltingcapacityreduced2.0%wowto79,750tonnes(-15.2%yoy)asofJuly9withtwoproductionlinesbeingsuspended,accordingtoSCi99. makingin1H26duetolowproductprices,except inverterandPVfilmmaker: 30%qoqtoRmb1,480-1,540min2Q26Ewithexplosivedemandgrowthof residentialenergystoragesystem; +78.8%qoqtoRmb558m in2Q26EmainlyboostedbyhighersalespriceofPVfilms; ofRmb155m in2Q25and Rmb38m in1Q26)draggedbysharpdeclineof solarglassprices; Rmb2,363min2Q25andRmb2,444min1Q26); Rmb1,133min2Q25andRmb1,920min1Q26); :JASolarestimates itsnetlosstobeRmb2.4-2.9bn in1H26E,includingRmb1.3-1.8bnin2Q26E(vs.lossesofRmb942min2Q25andRmb1,067min1Q26). Source: SMM,Citi Research Source: SMM, Citi Research 2026 Citigroup Inc. No redistribution without Citigroup's written permission.Source: SMM, Citi Research 2026 Citigroup Inc. No redistribution without Citigroup's written permission.Source: SMM,Citi Research CompaniesMentioned:FlatGlass(6865.HK; HK$6.26;2;15Jul26;16:10)/HangzhouFirstAppliedMaterial (603806.SS;Rmb14.75;1;15Jul26; Rmb108.95;1;15Jul26;15:00)/Tongwei(600438.SS;Rmb10.8;1;15Jul26;15:00) of the graphics in this document, please call USA 1-888-500-5008 (TTY: 711), from outside theUS+1-210-677-3788 Appendix A-1 Theresearchanalystsprimarilyresponsibleforthepreparation andcontentofthisresearchreportareeither(i)designated by"Ac"intheauthorblockor(ii)listed inboldalongsidecontentwhichisattributabletothatanalyst.IfmultipleAcanalystsaredesignatedintheauthorblock,eachanalystiscertifyingwithrespecttotheentireresearch reportotherthan(a)contentattributabletoanotherACcertifyinganalystlisted inboldalongsidethecontentand(b)viewsexpressedsolelywithrespecttoaspecificissuerwhichareattributabletoanotherACcertifyinganalystidentifiedinthepricechartsorratinghistorytablesforthatissuershownbelow.Eachoftheseanalystscertify,withrespecttothesectionsofthereportforwhichtheyareresponsible:(1)thattheviewsexpressedthereinaccuratelyreflecttheirpersonalviewsabouteachissuerandsecurityreferencedandwereprepared inanindependentmanner,includingwithrespecttoCitigroupGlobalMarketsInc.anditsaffiliates;and(2)nopartoftheresearchanalyst'scompensationwas,is,orwillbe,directlyorindirectly,relatedtothespecificrecommendationsorviewsexpressedbythatresearchanalystinthisreport.IMPORTANTDISCLOSURES CitigroupGlobal MarketsInc.orits affiliatesreceived compensationforproducts and services otherthaninvestmentbanking servicesfromFlat Glass,JASolar,LONGiGreen EnergyTechnology,SungrowPower Supplyinthepast12months.services provided were non-investment-banking, securities-related:Flat Gla