温室气体排放对美国气候影响的批判性综述

ClimateWorkingGroupUnited States Department of Energy气候工作组 美国能源部 2025年7月23日 Report to U.S.Energy Secretary Christopher WrightJuly23, 2025向美国能源部长克里斯托弗·赖特汇报2025年7月23日 ClimateWorkingGroup:气候工作组 John Christy, Ph.D.Judith Curry, Ph.D.Steven Koonin, Ph.D.Ross McKitrick, Ph.D.Roy Spencer, Ph.D.约翰·克里斯蒂，哲学博士 朱迪思·库里，哲学博士 史蒂文·库宁，哲学博士 罗斯·麦基特里克，哲学博士 罗伊·斯宾塞，哲学博士 This report is being disseminated by the Department of Energy. As such, this document was preparedin compliance with Section 515 of the Treasury and General Government Appropriations Act forFiscal Year 2001 (Public Law 106-554) and information quality guidelines issued by the Department本报告由能源部分发。因此，本文件的编制符合《2001财年财政拨款法案》（公共法第106-554号）第515条以及能源部发布的资料质量指南。 Copyright © 2025 United States版权所有 © 2025 美国 Suggested citation:建议引用： ClimateWorkingGroup(2025)A Critical Review of Impacts of Greenhouse Gas Emissions on theU.S. Climate. Washington DC: Department of Energy,July23, 2025气候工作组（2025）《温室气体排放对美国气候影响的批判性回顾》。华盛顿特区：能源部，2025年7月23日。 Table of Contents目录 SECRETARY’S FOREWORD.......................................................................................................................VIIIEXECUTIVE SUMMARY..............................................................................................................................IX执行摘要…… IX秘书的序言。 PREFACE...................................................................................................................................................XPART I: DIRECT HUMAN INFLUENCE ON ECOSYSTEMS AND THE CLIMATE....................................................11CARBON DIOXIDE AS A POLLUTANT..................................................................................................22DIRECT IMPACTS OF CO2ON THE ENVIRONMENT..............................................................................32.1CO2AS A CONTRIBUTOR TO GLOBAL GREENING...................................................................................................32.1.1Measurement of global greening....................................................................................................32.1.2Photosynthesis and CO2levels.........................................................................................................42.1.3Rising CO2and crop water use efficiency........................................................................................62.1.1 全球绿化测量。 32.1.2 光合作用与二氧化碳水平。 42.1.3 升高的二氧化碳和作物用水效率。 62.1.4 IPCC报告中二氧化碳施肥的好处。 61 一氧化碳作为一种污染物。2 二氧化碳对环境的直接影响。前言第一部分：人类活动对生态系统和气候的直接影响。2.1 二氧化碳作为全球绿化的重要贡献者 2.2THEALKALINEOCEANS...................................................................................................................................62.2.1Changing pH....................................................................................................................................62.2.1 改变pH值................................................................2.2 碱性海洋…… 3HUMAN INFLUENCES ON THE CLIMATE...........................................................................................11人类活动对气候的影响 113 3.1COMPONENTS OF RADIATIVE FORCING AND THEIR HISTORY..................................................................................113.1.1Historical radiative forcing............................................................................................................113.1.2Change in atmosphericCO2since 1958.........................................................................................133.1 辐射强迫的组成部分及其历史... 113.1.1 历史上的辐射强迫... 113.1.2 自1958年以来大气中二氧化碳的变化... .. 13 3.2FUTURE EMISSION SCENARIOS AND THE CARBON CYCLE.......................................................................................143.2.1Emission scenarios.........................................................................................................................143.2.2The carbon cycle relating emissions and concentrations..............................................................173.2.1 排放情景.. ..143.2.2 与排放和浓度相关的碳循环. 17未来排放情景与碳循环..143.2 5DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN MODELS AND INSTRUMENTAL OBSERVATIONS.......................................31模型与仪器观测之间的差异。31 5.1INTRODUCTION...........................................................................................................................................315.1 引言... .31 5.2SURFACE WARMING.....................................................................................................................................335.3TROPOSPHERIC WARMING............................................................................................................................345.4VERTICAL TEMPERATURE PROFILE MISMATCH....................................................................................................36，5.2 表面加热.. .335.3 对流层加热 ..345.4 垂直温度剖面不匹配.. .. 36 5.5STRATOSPHERIC COOLING.............................................................................................................................385.6SNOW COVER MISMATCH.....................