能源、交通和食品领域行为转变对温室气体减排的有效影响：全球定量综合研究

The effective impact of behavioral shiftsin energy, transport, and food A global quantitative synthesis of the greenhouse gas emission reductionpotential of behavioral changes in the transportation, energy, and food sectors Gordon Kraft-Todd, Mindy Hernandez, and Jordana Composto Highlights▪ CONTENTS Meeting global climate targets requires widespread shifts in human behav-ior. Research to date has emphasized individual-level behavior change.▪ Executive summary. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .2Introduction. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3Methodology. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8Results. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .11General discussion. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .24Areas for future research. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27Conclusion. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .27Appendices A–L. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .28Endnotes. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 47References. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .49Acknowledgments. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .56About the authors. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .56 To quantify the achievable emissions reductions through individualbehavior change, this study combines research on the projected emissionsimpact of key behaviors with data on the feasibility of changing thosebehaviors through behavioral interventions.▪ Behavioral interventions demonstrate modest but consistent suc-cess, increasing target behaviors by 10 percentage points compared tocontrol groups.▪ Intervention design matters: analysis of intervention methods reveals thatchoice architecture and commitment devices are the most impactful tools,while information-based approaches (e.g., carbon footprint calculators) areamong the least.▪ While combined behavioral changes could theoretically offset all theaverage global citizen’s per capita emissions, real world, individual-levelinterventions typically achieve only 10% of that—highlighting the need forboth individual actions and systemic supports.▪ Working Papers contain preliminary research, analysis,findings, and recommendations. They are circulated tostimulate timely discussion and critical feedback, andto influence ongoing debate on emerging issues. Four “Priority Shifts” emerge as highest-impact behaviors: Suggested Citation:Kraft-Todd, G., M. Hernandez,and J. Composto. 2025. “The effective impact ofbehavioral shifts in energy, transport, and food: Aglobal quantitative synthesis of the greenhouse gasemission reduction potential of behavioral changesin the transportation, energy, and food sectors.”Working Paper. Washington, DC: World ResourcesInstitute. Available online at doi.org/10.46830/wriwp.21.00151. ▪Reducing gas-powered vehicle use▪Decreasing air travel▪Lowering residential fossil fuel consumption▪Reducing animal product consumption ▪The impact difference between behaviors is massive—eliminating car usereduces emissions 78 times more effectively than composting.▪ Realizing the emissions reduction possible will require focusing on PriorityShifts, effective tools and policy, and industry support. Executive summary Background Achieving the necessary greenhouse gas (GHG) emissionsreductions to avoid the most destructive effects of climatechange depends on shifting behaviors(IPCC 2014; O’Rourkeand Lollo 2015; Creutzig et al. 2018). Modern climate changeis largely driven by GHG-emitting human behavior (Masson-Delmotte et al. 2021), especially in the energy, food, andtransport sectors. Therefore, changing behavior—at both anindividual and systems level—is key to reducing emissions andpreserving human society and natural systems. Using a harmonized categorization system, we combinedata on emissions reductions and real-world interventions(representing over 1.3 million individuals). The result is anevidence-based assessment of which individual behavior shiftsoffer the greatest emissions reduction potential when accountingfor both theoretical potential and real-world feasibility. Specifically, we focus on behavior shifts in the energy, trans-portation, and food sectorsand explore the following questions: ▪What behaviors can most significantly lower GHGemissions, and to what extent?▪Which interventions and specific tools (e.g., defaults,incentives, choice architecture) have demonstrably andeffectively changed these behaviors, and to what extent?▪What is the difference between the projected and effectiveemissions impact of key behavior changes? Systems- and individual-level actions are needed to unlockthe full potential of behavior change.Comprehensive behaviorshifts that include technological advancements, policies, andindustry practices could reduce global GHG emissions by 40–70percent by 2050 (IPCC 2022). This estimate encompasses bothsys