关于中国AI芯片的专家会要点

Research Analyst +852-220-36240 OnJuly15,wehostedanexpertcall withMr.Patrick,aSeniorDirectorofR&Dat a leadingdomestic Alchip company,to discuss thelatestdemand-supplytrends,competitive landscape, and technological evolution within China's domestic Alchipspace.TheexpertbelievesthedomesticAlchipsmarketremainsaseller'smarket, characterized by strong demand and manufacturing capacity as theprimary binding constraint. Regarding competitive dynamics,the experthighlighted supplychain capabilityas thekeydifferentiatoramongmajorChinesedevelopers,noting that hardware capabilities appearlargelycomparable.Forthegrowthoutlook,heexpectstoseeaCAGRofover30%fordomesticshipmentsoverthe next 2-3 years. Aseller'smarketwithsupplyconstraintsTotal shipments reached approximately 4mn units in 2025, and the expert anticipatesittoexpandtowards5mnby2o26.Thisgrowthisaccompaniedbyasignificantlocalizationtrend,withthedomesticshareexpectedtorisefromaround40%toover50%.Capacity is primarilyconcentrated in two foundries,SMIC andHua Hong,whichareanticipatedtorampupproductiongradually.Havingsaidthat,the supply-demand gap will likely persist through 2026 and 2027, and the expertattribute this to existing limitations in capacity,manufacturing processes,andtechnologygeneration. Domesticcompetitivelandscape Domestic Al chip vendors are categorized into four tiers based on their marketpresence and influence. Huawei is Tier 1. Tier 2 includes T-Head (Alibaba),Cambricon,andKunlunxin(Baidu).Tier3comprisescompanieslikeHygonandthe"four little dragons"(e.g.,Metax,Moore Threads, Iluvatar, etc.).Finally,Tier 4consistsofotheremergingsmallerplayers Technologyandsystem-levelgapsversusglobal leadership While certain domestic chips, such as Huawei's Ascend 950,is comparable toNVIDIA's H100/H200 in memory capacity,they still exhibit a lag in computeperformanceandoverall system-levelintegration.Furthermore,NViDIA'sofferingsextendbeyondstandaloneacceleratorstocomprehensiveAl-factoryarchitectures,domestically. Software&ServicesExpertcall Thedomestic Alchip install baseis heavilyskewedtowards inference workloads, with a ratio of approximately 10:1 compared to training. While current domesticchips are well-suited for inference tasks, challenges persist in effectively handlingtraining workloads, particularly for pre-training large models. chips,requiringadequatecomputepower,substantialmemorycapacitywithhighbandwidth,and rapid interconnect.Domesticplayers generally offer comparablehardwarecapabilities,withHuaweileadingincomputeandsomevendorsexcellingin software compatibility.Pricing,however, varies across different marketsegments and product cycles. CustomersegmentationandprocurementstrategiesAl chip customers are segmented into two primary groups, internet companies (CloudServiceProvidersorCSPs)andtelecommunications/state-ownedenterprises (Telcos/SOEs),eachexhibiting distinctprocurementpriorities.InternetCsPs prioritizeperformance,price-performanceratios,and robust supply chaincapacity, often requiring suppliers to deliver upwards of 50,o00 units. In contrast,Telcos and SOEs tendto favor Huawei and other vendors,valuing innovation andthe flexibility of heterogeneous deployments. The qualification process forfollowedbyrigorousprocurementbenchmarks-withbuyerscommonlyadoptinga multi-vendor sourcing strategyto mitigate risks. Software&ServicesExpert call Appendix 1 *Other information available upon request Software&ServicesExpertcall Theviews expressed inthis report accuratelyreflect the personal views of the undersigned lead analyst about the subject issuers and the securities of those issuers.In addition, the undersigned lead analyst has not and will not receive anycompensation for providinga specific recommendation orview in this report.Leo Chiang. Software&ServicesExpertcall EquityRatingandDispersionKey TheEquityRatingDispersionChartdepictsthefollowing: Theproportionofrecommendationsthatarerated"buy","sell"and"hold"overtheprevious12months.Thisis shownforsecurities issued in the stated region e.g."Europe Universe".See rating definitions below.This is represented by the"Companies Covered"bars inthechart.Thepercentagevaluedisplayed abovethebaristheproportion as apercentage.E.g.50%abovethe"buy"/"CompaniesCovered"barmeansthat50%ofDB'sequityresearchcoveredcompaniesoverthe past 12 months have a"buy" rating. Next to each of the three respective bars showing the proportion of"buy","sell"and"hold"recommendations we providetwo additional barstoshow: Theproportionof"buy","sell"or"holdrecommendationswhereDeutscheBank andor/Affiliates providedMiFIDInvestment or Ancillary Services in the past 12 months.This is represented in the"MIFID Investment and AncillaryServices"bar.ThepercentagevaluedisplayedabovethebarshowstheproportionofCompaniesCoveredwiththegivenratingwhereDBhas alsoprovided MFIDInvestment andAncillaryServices inthepast12months.E.g.50%abovethe"Cos.w/MiFIDInvestmentandAncillaryServices"barmeans50%oftheCompaniesCoveredwiththeratingstatedhavealsore