6月新增人民币贷款及社融仍偏弱，2026年下半年政策支持可期

June TSF and RMB loans remained weak despite improved seasonalityJune Total Social Financing (TSF) and RMB loans improved sequentially due to quarter-end seasonality,buttheoverall credit impulseremained softerthanlastyear.MonthlyTSFand newRMBloan additions in June came inat RMB3.4tnandRMB1.6tn,respectively,reboundingfromMay'sRMB2.0tnandRMB520bn.However,both figures were below June2025levels and consensus estimates,while outstanding TSF and loan growth slowed further to 7.4% and 5.2%,respectively,withloan balance growth reaching a new historical low. TSFinJunewasRMB3.4tn,upfromRMB2.Otn inMaybutbelowRMB4.2tn inJunelastyear and theRMB3.7tnconsensus.TheTSFbalancegrowthwas7.4%YoY,deceleratingfrom7.7%inMay.Thestructurelargelyalignedwithpreviousmonths,withgovernment,corporatebondsandequityfinancingstill thekeysupport,whileloancontributioncontinuedtoweaken GovernmentbondissuanceslowedtoRMB768bninJunefromRMB1.2tninMay.WhilegovernmentbondsremainthelargestcontributortoTSFafterloans,this slower sequential run rate suggests that more fiscal support islikelytobedeployedin2H26tostabilize economicgrowth. Corporatebondissuance increased to RMB401bn inJune,up fromRMB242bnlastyearandRMB168bn inMay.This improvingmomentumsuggests corporations arenow utilizing thelow-interest-rate environmentto lower financing costs.Equityfinancing increasedtoRMB63bn,maintaining strongmomentumdue to robust capital financing from innovative tech companies'listings.Off-balance-sheet financing remained weak, reflecting sustaineddeleveraging trends by corporate.OtherfinancingincreasedtoRMB456bn inJune,primarilyduetoagreateramount of write-offs amid mid-yearand accelerated book clean-up,likelyhintingat stabilizing NiM and revenue forbanks NewRMBloansincreasedsequentiallytoRMB1.6tninJunefromRMB52ObninMay.However,this figurewas softer thanJune 2025's RMB2.2tn and theconsensus of RMB1.9tn, reflecting sustained underlying credit demandConsequently,loanoutstandingbalancegrowthdeceleratedtoanewrecordlowof5.2%. BanksChina Banks termcorporateloanswere45%lessthanJuneoflastyear,offsetbybillfinancing surgingtoRMB114bn.This reflects a sustained cautious stanceon investmentby corporationsdespiterecent improvements inPMI andindustrialproduction.Household loans turned positive sequentiallyat RMB265bn in June,after contractingby RMB141bn in May.This pickup primarily reflectsseasonality.However, the increase remains weak compared to historicallevels,indicatingpersistentlyweakhouseholdcreditdemand.Wecontinueto observe caution among households,with proactive deleveraging NewdepositsincreasedbyRMB2.Otn in June,acceleratingfromRMB1.8tn inMaybut less than June 2025 (RMB3.2tn).This increase was mainly driven by strongdeposits from households(+RMB2.Otn)and corporates (+RMB1.9tn).Householdnew depositsturned positive from a RMB11Obn decline in May, while non-bankfinancial institution deposits_declined by RMB99Obn. This mainly reflects aslowdown of funds flowing into wealth management products due to fewerinvestment opportunities in June amid increasing market volatility.Corporatedepositsalso rebounded from a RMB17Obn contraction in May,primarily due toquarter-end seasonality.Fiscal deposits decreasedbyRMB939bn in June,nearingthe June2023level (RMB1.1tn),reflectingaccelerated government spending andseasonalityafterthetax season. May's M1and M2growth was 8.0% and 4.0%,respectively.Both slightly droppedfrom 8.6%and 5.5%in May,pointingto a moderate contraction of liquidity at thequarter-endand a weakeningof economic activities since Q2. ImplicationforthebanksOverall,TSFandnewloans continuedtoindicatesubdued financingdemandfrom the real economy.The slower fiscal spending pace in1H26 suggests greaterfiscalsupportin2H26.ThePBOC's2QMonetaryPolicyCommitteemeetingreiteratedanaccommodativepolicy stance,emphasizing counter-cyclicaland cross-cyclicaladjustmentsaswellasstrongercoordinationbetweenmonetaryandfiscalpolicies.Given the economic slowdown since 2Q, we expect an accelerated rollout ofpoliciesdesignedtosupportdomesticdemand,withacceleratedgovernmentbondissuance and fiscal spending in 2H. Meanwhile, the PBOC's increasing focus onfunding efficiency and loan quality, rather than headline loan growth, suggests agradual moderation in bank loan growth over time. We stick to our preference for large banks that have larger corporate businessexposure,resilientoperatingperformance,andfairdividendyields.Ourtoppicksinthebanking sectorareCCB-H(lastcloseHKD8.19)andBOC-H(lastcloseHKD5.10). BanksChinaBanks BanksChina Banks Source :PBOC, CEIC, Deutsche Bank BanksChina Banks Appendix 1 *Otherinformationavailableuponrequest subjectofthisresearch,pleaseseethemostrecentlypublishedcompanyreportorvisitourglobaldisclosurelook-uppageonourwebsiteathttps://research.db.com/Research/Disclosures/EquityResearchDisclosures..Aside from,within this report,important risk andconflict disclosures canalsobefoundathttps://research.db.com/Research/Disclosures/Disclaimer. AnalystCertificationThe views