2026年5月中国社会融资及人民币贷款数据解读：环比改善但融资需求仍偏弱

May TSF improved sequentially,demand stays weak May TSF and RMB loans showed sequential improvement, but weak demandpersists May Total Social Financing (TSF) and RMB loans showed weak but sequentialimprovement. May's monthly TSF and new loan additions came in at RMB2.0tn andRMB520bn, respectively, showing a sequential improvement from April's low base,with both figures slightly higher than consensus. However, the balance growth of TSFin May was RMB2.0tn, rebounding from RMB625bn in April but remainingbelow RMB2.3tn in May last year. This suggests that real-economy financingdemand remains weak across most channels, with the exception of corporate nGovernment bond issuanceslowed to RMB1.2tn in May from RMB1.5tnin April. While government bonds remained the largest contributor to TSF, nCorporate bond issuanceincreased to RMB172bn, up from RMB150bn inMay last year, but declined sequentially from RMB452bn in April. nCorporate equity raisingwas RMB30bn (up from RMB15bn in April 2026),indicating a sustained momentum of equity capital market activities. nOff-balance-sheetfinancing remained weak,with trust loans andundiscountedbankers’acceptances continuing to decline,reflectingongoing deleveraging trends. nOther financingslowed to RMB165bn but remained above the pre-2024run rate, likely reflecting sustained loan write-offs at an elevated level. New RMB loansrebounded to RMB520bn in May from a negative RMB10bn inApril, suggesting some stabilization in headline credit demand after April'snegative print. However, the recovery remains uneven and is still softer than May nCorporate loansimproved to RMB640bn in May compared to April butdeclined YoY, driven by a normalization in short-term loans (+RMB100bnversus -RMB460bn in April / RMB110bn in May 2025) and continued billfinancing support (+RMB557bn versus RMB75bn in May 2025, but below April’sRMB1.2tn).Medium-to-long-term corporate loans remainednegative at -RMB20bn, indicating that real investment-related creditdemand persists as weak. We view the May data as a modest relief from nHousehold loansremained negative at -RMB141bn in May, versus -RMB787bn in April. Both short-term loans (-RMB84bn) and medium-to-long-termloans(-RMB57bn)narrowed their declines,suggesting amarginal sequential improvement in consumption and mortgage demand.The medium-to-long-term loans were also impacted by alternative Housing New depositsincreased by RMB1.8tn in May, rebounding sharply from RMB270bnin April, though still below RMB2.2tn in May 2025. The increase was mainlysupported by non-bank financial institution deposits (+RMB1.1tn) and fiscaldeposits (+RMB710bn), while household and corporate deposits remained mildlynegative.Household savings declined by RMB110bn in May,narrowingsignificantly from April’s RMB1.9tn drop, but weaker than the RMB470bn increase May’s M1 and M2 growth was 5.5% and 8.6%, respectively. M1 growth improvedfrom 5.0% in April, while M2 stayed broadly stable, pointing to more ample liquiditysupported by monetary policy, a modest marginal improvement in transaction- Implication for the banksOverall, the monthly 11% and 15% decline of TSF and new loans, respectively, implypersistently weak financing demand,following April’s trend.Loans,particularly household borrowing, remain weak, while corporate and governmentfinancing remain the major contributors.We stick to our preference for large Key charts for the month Source : PBOC, CEIC, Deutsche Bank Source : PBOC, CEIC, Deutsche Bank Source : PBOC, CEIC, Deutsche Bank Source : PBOC, CEIC, Deutsche Bank Source : PBOC, CEIC, Deutsche Bank Source : PBOC, CEIC, Deutsche Bank Source : PBOC, CEIC, Deutsche Bank Appendix 1 Important Disclosures *Other information available upon request *Prices are current as of the end of the previous trading session unless otherwise indicated and are sourced from localexchanges via Reuters, Bloomberg and other vendors . Other information is sourced from Deutsche Bank, subject companies,and other sources. For disclosures pertaining to recommendations or estimates made on securities other than the primarysubject of this research, please see the most recently published company report or visit our global disclosure look-up page onour website at https://research.db.com/Research/Disclosures/EquityResearchDisclosures. Aside from within this report, Analyst Certification The views expressed in this report accurately reflect the personal views of the undersigned lead analyst about the subjectissuers and the securities of those issuers. In addition, the undersigned lead analyst has not and will not receive anycompensation for providing a specific recommendation or view in this report. Johnny Xie. Equity Rating and Dispersion Key The Equity Rating Dispersion Chart depicts the following: The proportion of recommendations that are rated "buy", "sell" and "hold" over the previous 12 months. This is shown forsecurities issued in the stated region e.g. "Europe Universe". See rating