2026年5月中国社会融资及人民币贷款数据解读：环比改善但融资需求仍偏弱

Johnny Xie, CPA May TSF and RMB loans showed sequential improvement, but weak demandpersists May Total Social Financing (TSF) and RMB loans showed weak but sequentialimprovement. May's monthly TSF and new loan additions came in at RMB2.0tn andRMB520bn, respectively, showing a sequential improvement from April's low base,with both figures slightly higher than consensus. However, the balance growth ofTSF and loans decelerated to 7.7% and 5.5%, both reaching historical lows. TSFin May was RMB2.0tn, rebounding from RMB625bn in April but remainingbelow RMB2.3tn in May last year. This suggests that real-economy financingdemand remains weak across most channels, with the exception of corporatebonds and equity financing, which increased 15% and 95% YoY, respectively. nGovernment bond issuanceslowed to RMB1.2tn in May from RMB1.5tnin April. While government bonds remained the largest contributor to TSF,the slower pace suggests moderate fiscal support compared with theprevious month. nCorporate bond issuanceincreased to RMB172bn, up from RMB150bn inMay last year, but declined sequentially from RMB452bn in April.nCorporate equity raisingwas RMB30bn (up from RMB15bn in April 2026),indicating a sustained momentum of equity capital market activities.nOff-balance-sheetfinancing remained weak,with trust loans andundiscountedbankers’acceptances continuing to decline,reflectingongoing deleveraging trends.nOther financingslowed to RMB165bn but remained above the pre-2024run rate, likely reflecting sustained loan write-offs at an elevated level. New RMB loansrebounded to RMB520bn in May from a negative RMB10bn inApril, suggesting some stabilization in headline credit demand after April'snegative print. However, the recovery remains uneven and is still softer than May2025's RMB620bn. nCorporate loansimproved to RMB640bn in May compared to April butdeclined YoY, driven by a normalization in short-term loans (+RMB100bnversus -RMB460bn in April / RMB110bn in May 2025) and continued billfinancing support (+RMB557bn versus RMB75bn in May 2025, but below 15 June 2026BanksChina Banks April’sRMB1.2tn).Medium-to-long-term corporate loans remainednegative at -RMB20bn, indicating that real investment-related creditdemand persists as weak. We view the May data as a modest relief fromApril’s weakness, but it demonstrates broadly persistent corporate creditweakness. nHousehold loansremained negative at -RMB141bn in May, versus -RMB787bn in April. Both short-term loans (-RMB84bn) and medium-to-long-termloans(-RMB57bn)narrowed their declines,suggesting amarginal sequential improvement in consumption and mortgage demand.The medium-to-long-term loans were also impacted by alternative HousingProvident Fund loans, which provide a lower rate than commercialmortgages. That said, continued negative household borrowing points tostill-cautious consumer behavior and deleveraging of household balancesheets. New depositsincreased by RMB1.8tn in May, rebounding sharply from RMB270bnin April, though still below RMB2.2tn in May 2025. The increase was mainlysupported by non-bank financial institution deposits (+RMB1.1tn) and fiscaldeposits (+RMB710bn), while household and corporate deposits remained mildlynegative.Household savings declined by RMB110bn in May,narrowingsignificantly from April’s RMB1.9tn drop, but weaker than the RMB470bn increasein May 2025. Corporate deposits also fell modestly by RMB170bn, compared with-RMB1.25tn in April and -RMB418bn in May last year, suggesting some sequentialstabilization and marginally improved cash collection and liquidity conditions. Non-bank FI deposits remained the key contributor, though the increase moderatedfrom April’s high base of RMB2.5tn, indicating that deposit migration towardwealth management/capital-market-related products is still ongoing but lessintense than in April. May’s M1 and M2 growth was 5.5% and 8.6%, respectively. M1 growth improvedfrom 5.0% in April, while M2 stayed broadly stable, pointing to more ample liquiditysupported by monetary policy, a modest marginal improvement in transaction-related money demand, and accelerated government spending. Implication for the banks Overall, the monthly 11% and 15% decline of TSF and new loans, respectively,implypersistently weak financing demand,following April’s trend.Loans,particularly household borrowing, remain weak, while corporate and governmentfinancing remain the major contributors.We stick to our preference for largebanksthat have larger corporate business exposure,resilient operatingperformance, and fair dividend yields. Our top picks in the banking sector areCCB-H and BOC-H. 15 June 2026BanksChina Banks Key charts for the month 15 June 2026BanksChina Banks Source : PBOC, CEIC, Deutsche Bank Source : PBOC, CEIC, Deutsche Bank Source : PBOC, CEIC, Deutsche Bank 15 June 2026BanksChina Banks Appendix 1 Important Disclosures *Other information available upon request *Prices are current as of the end of the previous trading