2026年下半年美元升值的三个主题：霍尔木兹海峡、鹰派美联储及超大规模企业资本支出

HawkishFed&Hyperscalers Global Fed (hawkish), and Al capex (hyperscalers) Alex Cohen, CFAFX StrategistBofAS . Oil market dynamics point to upside risks at time when Warsh has doubled down on2% inflation. USD views unchanged post-CPI. Al increasingly an FX factor going forward. Net bullish USD on US investment, capflows and upside inflation/rate risksHormuz Strait: Deja vu all over again +1 646 743 7015alex.cohen2@bofa.com Middle East tensions are rising, and oil has rallied roughly 20% from the post-MOU lows.While headline ping-pong may continue, there is a sizeable net-short oil position in the market and inventories remainlow.USD correlations to oil are being reasserted, even asthe wider scope of G1O currencies take this re-escalation in stride for now. This hasbeen aided in part by a quiet re-pricing of additional hikes in several G10 central banks.Hawkish Fed: Mission not accomplished We hold a well out-of-consensus Fed call, still seeing scope for 3 hikes this year. ChairWarsh has recently reasserted his commitment to 2% inflation, and while June CPl came in soft, it will take several more like-prints to confirm a trend. Nominal rate differentialshave narrowed (against the USD) on back of lower UST yields this week, but real ratedifferentials ticked marginally wider, reflecting inflation fighting credibility. If delivered,this should support the USD. Meanwhile, FX positioning is likely not as net-long asfutures markets suggest.Hyperscalers: Do believe the hype Finally,we see the Al theme as a net-positive for the USD, with ongoing cap-ex likely to keep relative growth supported. Despite recent volatility in the US tech sector, netglobal equity flows continue to point to the US on balance. Meanwhile, first ordereffects of Al could point to higherfor longer Fed policy.Labor market implicationsshould never be ignored, though remain at bay for the time being. And the build out and The FX market has several concurrent themes to digest, and we still see them as collectively adding to bullish risks in the near-term. We expect notably more Fed hikesthan both consensus and market pricing,despite the soft June CPl. Chair Warsh hasreiterated a hardened commitment to 2% inflation, keeping real rate differentialssupported. Middle east tensions are not going away, and oil market dynamics pointlimited downside price risks (if not upside risks). And Al cap-ex is poised to continue,even as tech-equity volatility persists. This should support US growth and inflation, andbe net-positive for capital flows. Trading ideas and investment strategies discussed herein may give rise to significant risk and arenot suitable for all investors. Investors should have experience in relevant markets and the financialresources to absorb any losses arising from applying these ideas or strategies.BofA Securities does and seeks to do business with issuers covered in its researchreports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict ofinterest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider thisreport as only a single factor in making their investment decision.Refer to important disclosures on page 10 to 11.12994826 Hormuz Strait: Déja vu all over againGeopolitics are heating up again, as the always tenuous Iran/Us M.O.U. has proven just that. This re-escalation has come just as the FX market was looking to turn the pagefrom this theme. While eventual de-escalation is likely still the market's base-case,theflurry of headlines should remain a source of two-way uncertainty. For now, thereimposition of the Us blockade on lran has taken oil about 2o% higher off the post-warlows, re-introducing headline inflation risks. (Exhibit 2)In FX, this has also re-introduced upside USD tail-risks, although they have yet to be discernably reflected in G1O spot (see below). The DXY's correlation to changes in Brenthad all but broken down in late-June/early-July, particularly as the "de-escalation" drop inoil mostly coincided with the reassessment of the Fed's outlook following the JuneFOMC. But these correlations have picked back up, serving as a reminder that as the oilmarket goes, so should the USD in this environment. (Exhibit 1) BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH OildynamicspointtoUSDupsiderisksThis comes at a time when a notable portion of the oil market had already positioned quite short. While futures positions in brent appear structurally biased long (to variousdegrees), the short side of the market sits at extreme levels.1 Since 2012, net futurespositioning has rarely been this close to flat. The positioning shift in the past severalweeks had corresponded with the “relief" selloff in oil on back of the initial ceasefire/MoU and supposed reopening of the strait of Hormuz. (Exhibit 3) A large spike innet-shorts was the main driver of this net-shift and has come at a time when crudeinventories are similarly at 15-year lows. (Exhibit 4). 15 yearsOil futures net positioning & front-month bren