1H26利润复苏：因低基数及非经常性收益

Estun Automation 1H26 Profit Alert: Profit recovery thanksto a low base and non-recurring gainsEstunreleasedaprofitalertintheeveningof14July.Thecompanyisscheduledto ResearchAnalyst+852-2203-5884 releaseitsfull1H26resultsin21August. and non-recurring gainsFor 1H26, Estun reported net profit of RMB165mn (RMB7mn in 1H25),and recurring net profit of RMB68mn (RMB18mnloss in 1H25) at the midpoint, bothpointing to a strong recovery off a very low base in1H25.The results came in(link to our preview).That said, we note that non-recurring gains contributedRMB98mn,accountingfor60%ofnetprofit.Detailsoftheprofitalertareavailablein Figure 1. 2Q26is impliedtohaverecordednetprofitofRMB67mn(RMB6mn loss in2Q25)and recurringnet profit of RMB48mn(RMB22mn loss in2Q25),markingthebestquarterly recurring net profit in the company's history. Estun attributed the strong profit recovery in 1H26 to: Higher GPM and improved efficiency:thanks to optimised productstructure (focusing on high-value-added products and high-qualityorders),price increases, supply chain and design optimisation, and leanmanufacturing;2.Loweroperating expense ratio:through strict budget control measures,despitethecontinuedoverseasexpansionHighernon-recurringgainsofRMB98mn:resultingfromanincreaseinfairvalue due to an equity transfer of an equity investment.The non-recurringgainconcentratedmainly in1Q26. Forsales,weestimateEstuntohaveachieved5-10%YoYgrowthfor1H26,and15-20% YoY for 2Q26,following a decline of 2% in 1Q26. This should be lifted by:(1)soliddemandfrombatteryandelectronicsendmarkets;(2)therealisationofthe5-15%price increaseadopted in1Q26;and (3)a lowerbase.WethinkGPMhaslikelyimprovedto~31%in2Q26and1H26,from29.5%in2025and27.6%in1H25. ManufacturingEstunAutomation result given higher sales and automotive-related sales with long receivablesduration. Keepourforecasts,ratingsandtargetpricesunchangedAlthough the recovery in 1H26 is encouraging, Estun still needs to execute well in ordertoreachmanagement'stargetof RMB6bnsalesandRMB30Omnnetprofit/5% NPM. After all, non-recurring gains contributed 60% of net profit in 1H26. For2026,weforecastsalesofRMB6bn(+23%YoY),netprofitofRMB305mn(5.1%NPM; +578%YoY)and recurring net profit of RMB205mn (3.4%NPM;+2714%YoY), in line with the company's guidance For the A shares,we reiterate our SELL recommendation with a target price ofRMB31.4.Estun'sAsharesaretradingon2026E/2027EP/Esof122x/82x,aboveitslong-term one-yearforward P/Eof 67.5x.Thecompany is trading ona 2026EP/S of6.2x. FortheH shares,we reiterate our HOLD recommendationwithatargetpriceof HK$23.6.Estun'sHsharesaretradingon2026E/2027EP/Esof56x/38x,anda2026EP/S of 2.9x. Potential acquisition of humanoid robot business Codroid lifts sentiment In the evening of 2 July,Estun announced thatthe company is consideringfullyacquiring Codroid by cash.We think the potential acquisition is somewhatexpected,as Codroid is closelylinkedto Estun-Estun already owns13.9535%ofCodroid,andEstun'sparentcompanyNanjingPeresteTechnologyowns39.0698%ofCodroid. Foundedin2022,Codroidmanufacturescollaborativerobots(cobots),embodiedrobotsandcorecomponents.ThekeyendmarketsforCodroidincludeautomotive,householdappliance,electronicsandfoodlogistics. In2025,Codroidgenerated revenueofRMB50.2mnwithanetlossofRMB53mn.Therefore, we expect the acquisition to contributeminimal financiallyto Estun inthe near future.However, we think Codroid's exposureto the humanoid robotbusinesswill lift/has liftedmarketsentimentof Estun. ManufacturingEstunAutomation Financial performance of Codroid 70kg.Total degree of freedom is29 or 31.Payload per arm is 5kg.c05-U:A wheeled humanoid robot withheightof 138-168cm and weightof 32kg.C05-L:Awheeledhumanoidrobotwithheightof138-168cmandweightof32kg. Figure3:Embodied robotsfromCodroid:Codroid02 (LHS)andC05-L (RHS) Source : Company data ManufacturingEstunAutomation ManufacturingEstunAutomation Figure8:Chinese robot makers led by Estun havebeengaining share in the China industrial robot market (marketshare overtime) ManufacturingEstunAutomation OurA/H-sharediscounttracker(wetrackcloseto50companies;contactusforthetrackerdetails)showsthatthesharesofcompaniesthatweredual-listedpost2H24are trading on average at a ~35% discount for the H-shares vs the A-shares.However, the H-share discount for humanoid robot related names appears to bewiderat50%asshowninthechartbelow,suggestingrelativelymoreconservativeattitudetowards thehumanoid robotopportunities among investors intheHongKong stockmarket. Figure12:Compsheetforlistedpeers ManufacturingEstunAutomation China Automation Market Monthly tracker: June stayed solid, finishing 2Q26strongerthan1Q26:Growthcoulddeceleratein2H26E-14Jul2026Humanoid Robot: Comparing Unitree, UBTECH, DEEP, Dobot and Leju:Opportunities and risks coexist-15 Jun2026Catalyst road map: for next 3M-8 Jun 2026Humanoid Robot (ll): Six visions for 2026 - Scaling, iterating anddiversifying-6Mar2026Foreign shareholdingquarterlywatch (4Q25):Abroad-b