IT硬件行业2026年5月CIO调查结果：支出水平、AI、个人电脑及服务商视角

IT Hardware: May 2026 Cl0 survey results - Perspectives onspending levels, Al, PCs, and vendors InformationOfficers(ClOs)amongGlobal1000companies. +12128457822mark.newman@bernsteinsg.com sinceourNov25survey,although sentimenthas diverged regionally,with EuropeanClOsbecomingmorepessimisticthanAmerican counterparts.WeforecastITspendinggrowth in 2026 to bein line with Gartner's estimated 12%.Historically, IT spendinghas shown a positive correlation with both GDP and corporate earnings growth (which hasimproved significantly to 24.4% vs.15.3% last Nov). +19173448339 +1917 344 8481phoebe.sun@bernsteinsg.com ClOsprioritizespending oncybersecuritysoftware,withGenAland storagerankingremainweakestfortraditionalinfrastructurecategories,includingx86servers,mainframesand printers.Despite growing enterprisefocus on generative Al, CiOs remain relativelycautious on"on-prem"Al server spending.Mainframe sentiment remains negativeoveralland broadly stable versus our Nov25 survey,with 14% of mainframe usersintendingto add capacity. While enterprises appeartoremainlargelyin theexplorationphaseforAlandLLMs,theMay26survey shows encouraging signsof adoption.75% of ClOsbelieveapplications.Moreover,the net shareof CIOs whobelieve AI/LLMs havemeaningfullychangedthewaytheir company's employees performtheirwork has increasedto+21%, suggesting that Al adoption is beginning to translate into tangible benefits. CiOsexpecttodecreasespendingonPCsoverthenext12monthsandonly12%believe PCs will be replaced more frequentlygoingforward.This is likely due to componentinflation since 39% of surveyed CiOs indicatedtheyareextending PCrefresh cycles due tohigher costs such as memory inflation.However,CiOs increasinglyagree that PCs will bemore richly configured goingforward.We forecast teens%PC unit decline in 2026, butexpectAsPtailwindsdueto memory-costpass through,andricher configurations. Publiccloud adoption data continuestoappear somewhatnoisy.Followinga lullintobe slightly increasing, reaching 40% of expected workloads versus 11% a decadeago. Most CiOs also report using multiple public clouds. CiO spending intentions remainpolarized across vendors.Net spending intentionsremain deeply negativeforIBM (deteriorating), HPQ,and HPE(both improving),whileDELLcontinues tofarebetterthan its infrastructurepeers andalso improved versusprior surveys.When asked about hardware and infrastructure spending over the next fiveyears,Applewas the onlyvendortoachievenon-negativenet spending intentions.Incloudandsoftware,Microsoft,Amazon,andServiceNowrankedhighest.MicrosoftandOpenAl were also viewed astheleadinglong-term Al platforms. INVESTMENTIMPLICATIONS Within IT Hardware, we prefer Seagate, SanDisk, Dell, and Apple, all of which are rated Outperform. We rate HPE, HPQ, IBM andSMCI Market-Perform. CIO Spending PrioritieAl / Large Language Models.13PC Market Outlook...18Cloud Adoption and its Impact On On-Premise Spending..20CIOPerceptions of IT Vendors and Cloud Vendors...24Perceptions Of Cloudand Al Vendors And Capabilities27 Global1000companieswithaveragerevenuesof~$6.5B.Wewill behostingaconferencecall forclientswithenterpriseClOsonJuly 16th to briefly review the survey results and provide an opportunity for open Q&A with the CIOs. Please stay tuned for moredetails. CIOSPENDINGOUTLOOKAmerican CIOs are increasinglymoreconstructiveaboutYoYIT spendinggrowthfor2026thantheirEuropean counterparts.C0s areexpecting3.3%growthforthefull year2026,matching the expectationfor2026 in November 2025but diverging regionally, with the US expecting 4% growth but Europe only expecting 1.8% (Exhibit 1). In 2026,the expected spending growth is fractionally lower than 2025's expected growth, but exceeds 2020-2024's expectedlevels (Exhibit 2-Exhibit 3) However,Cl0expectationsfor2H2026areslightlylesspositivethanforthefull year2026.Overthepast3months,more COshavebecome incrementallypositiveonthefull yearIT spending outlook for2026butthespendingoutlookforthesecond half of 2026 is relatively more muted (Exhibit 4). That said,we remind investors that historically our ClO surveys have been good directionalindicators of changes in IT spending,but poorabsolute indicators. growth is expected to slow down a bit vs.2025, it well exceeds the levels seen in 2022 - 2024. Past 3 Months Ourforecastfor2026global IT spendingis12%atconstant currency.HistoricallyIT spending hasbeenpositivelyMoreover,theexpectationsfor2026S&P500earningsgrowthincreasedcomparedtoNov2025. Ourforecastfor2026global ITspendingis12%YoYatconstantcurrency,upfromour9%forecast inJanuary.US Real GDP growth sits at 2.1%, in line with 2% in 2025, while the 2026 EU GDP growth sits unchanged at 1.4%. WorldGDP growth for 2026E is at 3.1%, slightly lower than 3.4% in 2025, and then flattish at 3.2% from 2027-28E (in line withexpected long term growth-Exhibit 6).Therefore,GDPforecasts remain largely steady.Moreover,the expectations for2026 corporate earnings growth have increased to 24.4%,much better than our previous