IT硬件及通信设备：AI隐含倍数—阶段性调整

Implied AI Multiples – OpticalTaking A Break We are back to looking biweekly at how our AI-bucketedstocks have trended. Material movement was focused aroundoptical names with most others not seeing much movementsince the last reading. We also took a look at 'non-AI' plays inour coverage. IT Hardware and CommunicationsEquipmentNEUTRAL Tim Long+1 212 526 4043tim.long@barclays.comBCI, US Roughly two weeks ago (Implied AI Multiples - Rising TidesLiftSome, 06.01.26) we updated ourbiweekly AI exposure math that we debuted four months ago (AI Update, 02.11.26). We also nowtrack how implied AI multiples have trended across our AI bucketed stocks since we started thisseries. Recall, we started this analysis to assess what was embedded for our AI-related stocksacrossdifferentsub-segments and exposure percentages. Alyssa Shreves+1 212 526 7570alyssa.shreves@barclays.comBCI, US Mary Lenox+1 212 526 6277mary.lenox@barclays.comBCI, US Since the last report, on average, our AI-bucketed stocks' share prices have trended down MSD(vs SPX -2% and NDX -2% from 5.29.26-6.17.26), with SMCI's (-40%), FN's (-11%), and CIEN's(-25%) share price movement driving down the average. HPE continues to see upward shareprice movement (+12% in the same time period), whereas most of the other stocks were up/down LSD%. AI multiples across the group moved down on average since the last reading,driven by SMCI, FN, CIEN, and GLW – with CIEN earnings also moving FN in sentiment. These AI-bucketed stocks' share prices are still up on average almost 80% YTD, despite the recentpullback. Clarisse Yu+1 212 526 7025clarisse.yu@barclays.comBCI, US As a reminder, the select companies under our coverage that are commonly bucketed as 'AIplays' represent ~20% of total Cloud/AI capex, per our estimates, and these companies areexperiencing meaningful revenue growth in their respective Cloud/AI businesses. In our originalreport, most of these stocks implied AI multiples of 20-40x, with some much higher (GLW, KEYS,CIEN) and a few much lower (SMCI, HPE). In this latest update, most are now in the 40-60xrange, with GLW, KEYS, CIEN still higher, and DELL, HPE, and CSCO significantly higher vs earlierreadings and SMCI still much lower (due to company-specific issues). Below is our latest breakdown of these AI-bucketed stocks' percent of revenue from Cloud/AI aswell as as a percentage of total AI spend, and their estimated cloud AI revenue growth fromCY25-27. With Cloud AI growth moving higher across the industry, and the latest round of hyperscalerearnings highlighting increased capex expectations, our average cloud AI revenue growth CAGRfor 2023-27E is ~62% on average vs our initial estimate of ~53%. Below is a side-by-side comparison of current implied AI multiples vs May 29th. In the last update, within our illustrative math, we moved DELL's, HPE's, and CSCO's corebusiness multiples up by a turn, given each's recent legacy business outperformance (on-premseems to be doing better), ability to handle the current constrained component environment,and AI business momentum. Despite CIEN's strong earnings print, given the run-up in the stock intra-Q (+107% vs SPX +11%,NDX +22% from 3.05.26-6.03.26), the print was not enough to drive the stock price higher,tumbling the stock and implied AI multiple. FN also saw downward pressure given its CMrelationship to CIEN. SMCI announced $7Bn equity and equity-linked financing transactions tofund AI orders early June, tumbling the stock on the implied dilution expectations. •SMCIsaw the largest share price movement in the bucket of stocks (-40% since 5.29.26) dueto the financing announcement mentioned above and the implied share dilutionexpectations. In conjunction with the financing announcement, SMCI highlighted it received~$39Bn of incremental AI orders since Q-end that are expected to be fulfilled in the next ~2-3Qs. However, the company has had issues in the past with hitting top-line expectations (withcustomer readiness usually cited), so it is unclear to us the realistic timeline on this orderfulfillment. •CIENalso saw material downward share price movement (-25% since 5.29.26), though webelieve this largely due to the run-up in the stock into earnings ~two weeks ago. We do notview this as a slowdown in the optical space, but more so earnings not matching the high barset by the share price run-up. However, because CIEN's earnings failed to meet streetexpectations, the stock also dragged down other optical plays, notably FN. •HPEwas a notable share gainer (+12% since 5.29.26), given strong earnings, news circulatingaround another activist fund taking a stake in the company, and follow-oneffectsfrom thepositive sentiment from DELL earnings late last month. Interestingly, the implied AI multiplesaw rapid acceleration since we began this series, moving from HSD to now >50x. Wecontinue to like the stock, given the company's higher margin networking business andconservative guide for the year. We also take a loo