IT硬件与通信设备：服务器模型更新，企业板块超预期，AI动能强劲

Server Model Update: EnterpriseSurprises Up, AI MomentumRemains IT Hardware and CommunicationsEquipmentNEUTRAL We update our detailed Server model following recent resultsand industry conversations. Enterprise strength surprisedmaterially to the upside across server players with AImomentum still strong this earnings cycle. We believe ASP isdriving a majority of the upside, with unit growth also cited. IT Hardware and CommunicationsEquipmentTim Long+1 212 526 4043tim.long@barclays.comBCI, US Alyssa Shreves+1 212 526 7570alyssa.shreves@barclays.comBCI, US Following recent results and industry conversations, we adjust our Cloud and Enterprise serverestimates. Recall, this year we changed our model methodology where we now break out Cloud(inclusive of AI) and Enterprise servers vs previously where we used AI vs Traditional. Mary Lenox+1 212 526 6277mary.lenox@barclays.comBCI, US Our Cloud estimates move higher, in line with major hyperscalers'liftedcapex expectations, andwe now estimate Cloud growing at a 5-year CAGR of ~62% (2022-27E) up from our prior estimateof ~59%. We view our revenue estimates moving higher as impressive, especially given howlarge our revenue estimates now are. Clarisse Yu+1 212 526 7025clarisse.yu@barclays.comBCI, US Enterprise surprised materially to the upside this past Q across server players. Although webelieve the majority of the upward movement was pull-in and ASP driven, companies also citedhow agentic AI and inference are driving a new opp for traditional servers. However, we do notexpect traditional server growth to continue into next year, and estimate LSD moving forward.Because of this year's expected outsized traditional server growth (we now estimate 33%growth assuming some unit growth coupled with higher ASPs), our Enterprise 5-year CAGRthrough 2027 is now MSD (~6%) vs our prior estimate of ~flat. Positive capex commentary continues from hyperscalers with >$700Bn in capex now expectedin CY26, up from ~$423Bn in CY25. Recent results from DELL, HPE, and SMCI are positive proofpoints to this higher capex directly translating into AI-related network infrastructureinvestments. Despite memory-related headwinds, we now expect Enterprise to grow >30% thisyear, assuming significant ASP increases and some unit volume. We are of the view that forEnterprise players, where purchases are on bits not necessarily units, pricing actions will fill thegap with potentially lower unit volumes. However, we do expect ~1% growth in CY27, given ourestimates this year on top of two strong years of growth in 2024-25 are hard to sustain,especially given continued price increases may erode demand more than current expectations. THE 2026 EXTEL SURVEY IS NOW OPEN Support our industry-leading analysts with 5-Starvotes in this year’s Extel All-America ResearchSurvey View Analysts Server Model Wrap Up •Our CY26Cloud server revenue forecasts move lower and CY27 move higher, accounting for•the above-mentioned strength in hyperscaler capex and focus on technical infrastructureinvestments. However, we do acknowledge some lack of visibility on AI server builds couldmake numbers lumpy (like we've previously seen with SMCI). °Our new Cloud server revenue estimates are $567Bn/$885Bn in CY26/27 vs our prior°estimates of $585Bn/$817Bn, respectively. We model growth of 77% and 56% in 2026/2027vs our prior estimates of 84% and 40%. xPU server estimates and updated segmentationfrom HPE (we adjusted our 2025 metrics), primarily accounted for the drop in 2026 growthvs prior estimates (not a fundamental change). DELL (and to lesser extent SMCI) drove thetick up in our estimates on the OEM front, with another increase in implied ODM growth. °Despite the move higher in CY27 estimates, we expect there is potential upside bias to our°estimates, given the strong capex announcements from the large hypers, the rising interestin enterprise/inferencing opportunities, and if large AI training deals get appropriatefunding. However, there is also a scenario in which we could see a push-out in revenues,given some of the larger sovereign deals are scheduled for the Middle East, although wehave yet to hear of any deployment delays. •We now estimate Enterprise server revenues up ~33% in CY26 (vs prior estimate of ~2%),•given the material outperformance and commentary from OEM players. DELL now expectstraditional servers to grow >60% for the FY, and HPE cited traditional server orders increasedDDD in the Q. DELL also mentioned that despite ASP increases, the company saw traditionalserver unit growth in the Q. We believe OEM players are enjoying multiple ASP increasescoupled with customer buying behavior holding up better than expected. We believe unitsmay be up MSD-HSD, although ASPs are up most likely closer to 40-50%. We expect furtherASP increases and the cyclicality of the enterprise business to normalize growth next yeardown to ~1% growth (with downside bias to estimates, if unit volumes and demand erodefurther than