IT硬件及通信设备：园区网络模型更新，增长回归常态

Campus Networking ModelUpdate; Growth Normalizing We update our detailed Campus Networking model followingrecent company moves and industry conversations. Ouroverall numbers show ~8% Y/Y growth in 2026 and ~7% in2027, moderating from ~10% growth in 2025. IT Hardware and CommunicationsEquipmentNEUTRAL IT Hardware and CommunicationsEquipmentTim Long+1 212 526 4043tim.long@barclays.comBCI, US Alyssa Shreves+1 212 526 7570alyssa.shreves@barclays.comBCI, US THE EXTEL SURVEY IS CLOSING SOON Support our industry-leadinganalysts with 5-Star votes inthe 2026 Extel All-AmericaResearch Survey. Mary Lenox+1 212 526 6277mary.lenox@barclays.comBCI, US Clarisse Yu+1 212 526 7025clarisse.yu@barclays.comBCI, US In this report, we provide an update to our Campus Networking modelafterrecent companyevents and industry conversations. We are now forecasting overall growth of 8% and 7% for2026 and 2027, respectively, decelerating from ~10% growth in 2025. The campus market hasexperienced healthy demand this year. Our model includes splits for wired switching, WLAN andWLAN Cloud, routing, and SD-WAN. Our conclusions are as follows: •We adjust overall 2026/2027e Campus Networking growth to 8%/7% from 10%/7%. The•market typically grows MSD but expanded above trend post pandemic on hybrid worktailwinds, growing ~20% in 2021 and mid-teens in 2022 and 2023. 2024 was a correction year,declining 16%, and now we see the market back to more normalized growth levels. •We now expect the total Campus Networking market CAGR of 6% from 2021-2026 (vs. prior•estimate of 7%). Barclays Capital Inc. and/or one of itsaffiliatesdoes and seeks to do business with companiescovered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have aconflict of interest that couldaffectthe objectivity of this report. Investors should consider thisreport as only a single factor in making their investment decision. Please see analyst certifications and important disclosures beginning on page 7.Completed: 09-Jun-26, 22:15 GMTReleased: 10-Jun-26, 04:10 GMTRestricted - External •Wired Switching constitutes the largest segment within the total campus market with•industry players reporting robust order and revenue growth. We believe refresh activity isback to normal, so enterprises are upgrading and also preparing their networks for AIinferencing. •For total WLAN market, we are estimating ~12% growth in 2026 and ~8% in 2027 as WiFi 7 is•ramping. The Cloud WLAN market grows faster than the rest of the WLAN market, as weforecast a 2021-2026 CAGR of 17% (vs. prior 15%) compared to our overall market estimate of8% (vs. 6% prior). We believe Cloud WLAN is a mid teens percentage of total WLAN revenues. •Enterprise Routing is the smallest part of the market and slower-moving. We expect modest•growth this year and forecast low to mid single digit growth in 2026 and 2027. We expect theEnterprise SD-WAN market to grow at ~11% 2021-2026e CAGR. This market saw very highgrowth from 2020-2023 with a MSD decline in 2024. From a vendor standpoint: •ANET (OW rated) entered the Campus market later and has grown its LSD share over the•years. In the most recent earnings call, the company campus revenue guidance was $1.25Bfor 2026. Arista's market share in campus was 0.3% in 2020 which we expect to rise to 3.4% by2027. With the VeloCloud acquisition completing their campus portfolio and ToddNightingale, COO, focusing on building out the campus portfolio, we think ANET is set up wellin this market. •CSCO (EW rated) has the lion's share of the market (~50%). Networking revenues contracted•in 2024 across the industry, but CSCO was hit harder on inventory correction. Since then,performance has been strong. In F3Q26, Cisco campus networking orders grew more than25% Y/Y and wireless orders grew more than 40% Y/Y. While Cisco has meaningful marketshare in the campus market, we tend to see shareshiftsthere, with Cisco likely being a sharedonor to other vendors like Arista. Despite the refresh/end-of-life in the campus segment, weexpect the non-AI business to grow LSD in FY26 and FY27, with campus networking a littlehigher than this number given the lower growth being seen insoftwaresolutions. •HPE (OW rated) has historically controlled low-DD share. Like CSCO, HPE experienced a•bottoming of its Aruba business in 2024, and we model a strong return to growth in theNetworking segment this year. We expect HPE to maintain the low DD market share level butwith growth moderating through 2026 and 2027. Campus Networking Market The campus market corrected with a sharp 16% decline in 2024 following elevated growth in2021-2023. We expect strong growth of 8% in 2026 and more normalized growth of 7% in 2027. CSCO dominates the campus market and has close to 50% share by our estimate. ANET cameinto the market much later, and, though a LSD player currently we expect it to continue gainingshare in 2026 and 2027. HPE has maintained low DD share. The Enterprise DC