IT硬件及通信设备行业：光学模型更新与增长展望

Updated Optical Model We update our detailed Optical model that include splits forLong Haul/Submarine/Metro/Pluggable (ZR/ZR+) and Telco/Cloud breakouts. We continue to model DD growth onaverage over CY26E-27E, given sustained cloud strength andtelco momentum. IT Hardware and CommunicationsEquipmentNEUTRAL IT Hardware and CommunicationsEquipment Tim Long+1 212 526 4043tim.long@barclays.comBCI, US In this report, we update our expanded Optical model, moving up our 2027 estimates based onstrength across end markets and products. For this market, we are looking at the total OpticalNetworks market, with splits for Long Haul, Submarine, and Metro, as well as Pluggable (ZR/ZR+) breakouts. Additionally, we include a breakout of customer verticals (Telco, Cloud,Enterprise) and the estimated market share CIEN has in each. Alyssa Shreves+1 212 526 7570alyssa.shreves@barclays.comBCI, US Overall growth has been choppy the last few years (prior to 2025), given telco digestion (macro)and cloud lumpiness, though beginning 2025 and now moving into CY26-27 we expect growth tosustain at DD levels. We are encouraged by the strength we see across end markets andproducts. We now expect DD growth this year, and an acceleration on this growth into 2027,given current dynamics around AI. Mary Lenox+1 212 526 6277mary.lenox@barclays.comBCI, US Clarisse Yu+1 212 526 7025clarisse.yu@barclays.comBCI, US Driving our estimates is the expanding cloud applications (i.e. scale across, hyper-rail, DCOM,etc) and cloud demand acceleration, as well as growing MOFN opportunities (~10-15% of CIEN'stelco business) and BEAD funding moving through the market. Our CY26 estimates move to 10%from 8%, and our CY27 estimates move to 12% from 13% (given nuances between FY and CY, aswell as the higher base of CY26). We could see upward bias to our estimates with cloud demandacceleration continuing. In alignment with our estimates, CIEN raised its FY26 guidance and gave high level commentaryaround FY27 - management expects "meaningful uptick" in revenue in FY27 due partially tohyper-rail and expects to see continued operating leverage into FY27+ (hyper-rail is bettermargin product). Despite the impressive book-to-bill and backlog posted the prior Q, the mostrecent Q book-to-bill was over 1 (~1.3x) and management still expects backlog to grow throughthe year. We would highlight that we view these backlog dynamics fundamentallydifferentthatsome of the backlog dynamics in our space post pandemic/supply chain crisis - managementmentioned, given their relationships with the hyperscalers, they can see that the products arebeing deployed (not sitting in warehouses). Our conclusions are as follows: •AI-related spend has already propelled the Optical market over the past few years (CY19 and•CY22 notable standouts as telco spend and hyperscalers built out networks). We continue to Barclays Capital Inc. and/or one of itsaffiliatesdoes and seeks to do business with companiescovered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have aconflict of interest that couldaffectthe objectivity of this report. Investors should consider thisreport as only a single factor in making their investment decision. Please see analyst certifications and important disclosures beginning on page 6.Completed: 16-Jun-26, 19:17 GMTReleased: 17-Jun-26, 04:10 GMTRestricted - External expect DD growth in the cloud vertical in CY26-CY27, as AI-related cloud build-outs broadenand continue to accelerate. •We currently do not forecast meaningful coherent Optical inside the data center in CY26•(potentially could see 2H26), and believe that to be more of a CY27+ opportunity. •We continue to expect the total Optical market to have a LSD CAGR from CY22-27, taking into•account the down years of CY23-24. °Within this, we expect Metro to drive the lion's share of growth (down MSD in CY25 though°+DD on average in CY26-27), as pluggables accelerate. We expect LH to grow this year andnext (+HSD on average), as longer distance scale across (utilizes more LH networkapproaches vs synchronous scale across applications), MOFN-related demand, and telcogeneral re-architecture of LH networks takes shape. We expect LH to remain roughly half ofthe total Optical market through CY27. °We expect growth in Metro to largely be driven by the rise of ZR/ZR+ Pluggables (+72% and°+33% market growth during CY26-27, respectively). We believe the Metro market exPluggables is down HSD on average over the same time period. •We expect Pluggables to remain a small piece of the overall Optical market (on average high•teens % of the total market through CY26-27), given their limited use cases and pricingdynamics (as well as continued growth in other equipment types). •We expect Sub to see +DD recovery in CY27 (on easy comps),aftermultiple down years•through CY26. Sub is MSD-HSD% of the total market. •Despite the expected cloud growth opportunity, we expect telco to remain the lion