欧洲洪灾的宏观经济成本与经济适应研究报告

09 July 2026 Content Page 3-4Executive Summary Page 5-9The scale and cost of flooding in Europe Page 10-14The macroeconomic impact of flood events inEurope Page 15-19Adaptation to flood-proof our economies Page 20-24Appendix SummaryExecutive Flood losses are rising rapidly as economic activity continues to concentrate in high-risk areas.Floods are Europe’s most frequent and costliest natural hazard, with totaleconomic losses climbing steadily, to EUR226bn in the first quarter of this century. Whileflood frequency in Europe has remained broadly stable at 46 per year since 2000, theircost has risen sharply. Losses from floods climbed 17.8% from EUR63.1bn between2000-2009 to EUR 74.3bn from 2010–2019. From 2020-2025 alone, the cost reachedEUR88.6bn, a 40% increase from the first decade of the century. Insurance covers only afraction of the damage: The July 2021 floods alone caused a record EUR38bn in damage,of which only EUR9bn was insured, leaving households, businesses and governmentsto bear the remainder. Looking ahead, annual river-flood losses across the EU and UKcould rise more than six-fold, from EUR7.8bn today to nearly EUR50bn by 2100 in a 3°Cwarming scenario, driven by more intense rainfall and continued development in exposedareas. Hazem KricheneSenior Economist, Climatehazem.krichene@allianz.com Markus AichingerSenior ExpertAllianz Reinsurancemarkus.aichinger@allianz.com Floods are local events in their physical origin, but their economic consequences ripplethrough the entire economy.To quantify these economic effects, we simulate a one-off flood in 2027, calibrated to each country‘s average historical maximum flood depthover 2015–2024, and compare the economic trajectory with a no-flood baseline through2030. The analysis links observed flood depth to real gross fixed capital formation andreal household net disposable income, tracing how flood damage spreads throughinvestment, consumption and public finances. Investment is hit hardest: cumulative grossfixed capital formation losses between 2027 and 2030 range from 10.5% in Norway to14.6% in the Netherlands, with Germany at 12% recording the largest absolute loss ataround EUR84bn. Real household net disposable income meanwhile falls by 3.9–5.4% in2027-30 as reconstruction costs and labour-market effects accumulate, in turn reducinghouseholds‘ capacity to absorb uninsured losses and rising insurance costs. Katherine WenigmannFlood Lead - Natural Catastrophe R&DAllianz Reinsurancekatherine.wenigmann@allianz.com Rozalia PapaioannouResearch Assistantrozalia.papaioannou@allianz.com Floods create a stagflationary shock, raising prices, slowing growth and erodingfiscal space.Consumer prices rise as damaged infrastructure, disrupted logistics andlower local availability of goods and services create supply bottlenecks. The cumulativeprice-level impact remains contained, from +0.2% in the United Kingdom to +1.0%in Greece, but it still adds pressure on households already facing an income shock.Private consumption declines in all countries, with cumulative losses ranging from-0.3% in Norway to -0.9% in Czechia; in absolute terms, the United Kingdom recordsthe largest loss at about EUR61bn, ahead of Germany and France. GDP losses thenrange from around -0.4% in Norway to -1.0% in Spain, with Germany and France losingapproximately EUR108bn and EUR79bn respectively. The impact on public finances isalso visible, with cumulative 2027-2030 government deficits widening by 1.3pp of GDP onaverage, from -0.3pp in Norway to -2.4pp in Spain. Katharina UtermoehlHead of Thematic and Policy Researchkatharina.utermoehl@allianz.com The economic case for flood prevention is overwhelming: well-targeted adaptationpays for itself many times over.Adapting to flooding requires more public capitalthan any other climate hazard, accounting for around 65% of all predominantly publicmeasures in our adaptation taxonomy. Yet target adaptation investments in naturalflood retention, resilient infrastructure and risk-sensitive land-use planning can largelyoffset future losses. Concretely, flood adaptation means keeping people and assets awayfrom high-risk floodplains where possible, restoring natural retention areas, upgradingdikes, drainage, sewers and stormwater systems, and flood-proofing buildings andcritical infrastructure. These measures should be combined according to the type ofrisk: basin-level retention and land-use planning for fluvial floods, local drainage andblue-green urban infrastructure for pluvial floods, supported by early-warning systems,emergency planning and insurance incentives. Flood resilience investments yield roughlyfour times their cost in avoided damages. Land-use planning offers similarly highreturns: prohibiting development in floodplains and integrating green, water-retaininginfrastructure into cities offer similarly high returns. This shows that more than climatepolicy, adaptation is preventive fiscal policy. Europe‘s challenge is to deliver eff