2026欧洲化工行业结构性重构：企业如何适应欧洲新常态研究报告

How can companies adaptto the new European reality March 2026 Management Summary The European chemical industry is undergoing a fundamental transformation driven by a convergence of structural forces.Weak domestic demand, combined with limited market pull for sustainable and low‑carbon solutions, is weighing on growth. Atthe same time, persistently low‑capacity utilization across Europe contrasts sharply with rising imports from China, fuelled byglobal overcapacity. These pressures are compounded by significantly higher energy costs, which continue to erode Europe’sglobal competitiveness. Regulatory developments add another layer of complexity. The European Union is advancing impactful regulations‑includingthe Emissions Trading System (ETS1). While the system is currently under review, it remains designed to phase out free carbonallowances by 2039 without yet providing sufficient mechanisms to safeguard European industry or ensure a level playing field.Taken together, these dynamics are placing unprecedented strain on chemical and the impact is already visible. From 2022 to 2025, announced capacity closures increased sixfold to nearly 37 million tons, while new investmentannouncements have dropped sharply, resulting in a shrinking industrial footprint and a net capacity loss of over 30 million tons.Against this backdrop, companies must navigate deep uncertainty: Will Europe remain an open market or move toward greaterprotection? Will the transition to a green economy accelerate or slow under economic pressure? To remain competitive andresilient, chemical companies must act across three critical dimensions. (1) Strategically, they must develop a robusttransformation strategy based on scenario analysis and value chain positioning. (2) Tactically, they need to define theparticipation model and redesign their operating model to ensure effective execution and agility. (3) Operationally, drivetargeted performance improvements to stabilize short‑term results to fund long‑term change. In an environment shaped by geopolitical uncertainty, shifting demand patterns, and the evolving energy transition,scenario‑based decision‑making becomes critical. Strategic footprint choices must be tested against multiple futures,assessing value‑chain resilience through a combination of feedstock‑forward and market‑back analyses. Only by stress‑testingstrategic choices across scenarios can companies ensure robustness in an increasingly volatile landscape.Incremental optimization is no longer sufficient; only those who act decisively and adapt rapidly will be positioned to succeed inthe new reality. EU’s chemical industry faces a perfect storm TheEuropean chemical industry is undergoing aprofound transformation, driven by a convergence ofdisruptive forces. Companies are actively restructuring,rebalancing capacity and product flows to optimizeefficiency, while leading players seek opportunities tostrengthen their market positions in an increasinglycompetitive environment. This challenge is intensifiedby delayed volume recovery in key sectors, resulting inpersistently low utilization rates and rising costs. Globalovercapacity,particularlyfromChineseimports,continues to put downward pressure on prices, furthereroding the margins of European producers. Energycompetitiveness has become critical, as high gas andelectricity costs undermine profitability and limit theindustry’sability to electrify operations and remainglobally competitive. Regulatory pressures add furthercomplexity,with the implementation of chemicalregulationssuchasRegistration,Evaluation,Authorization and Restriction of Chemicals (REACH)andClassification,Labelling and Packaging(CLP)driving up compliance and traceability costs. Lastly thecarbon rules under the EU ETS is set to reach zero freecarbonallowancesby2039accordingcurrentregulation. The push for decarbonization, high utilitycostsanduncertaintyarounddemandrequirecompanies to fundamentally rethink their strategiesand investment priorities. The structural reset of the European chemical industry The European chemical industry stands at a pivotalcrossroadsasdetailedinourrecentstudycommissionedfor Cefic.The industry is facing atransformation of unprecedented scale and urgency.From 2022 to 2025, the sector has witnessed a dramaticsurgein announced capacity closures,increasingsixfold to nearly 37 million tons—representing close to9 % of total production capacity. Thescale and impact of closures are significant.Announcedclosures by volume have doubled from2024to 2025,with Germany and the Netherlandsrepresenting nearly half of the total. Most of theseclosuresin capacity are concentrated in upstreampetrochemicals(around 50 %),followed by basicinorganicsand polymers.The social and economicconsequencesare significant,with approximately20,000direct and 89,000 indirect jobs at risk,threatening the stability of integrated chemical clustersacross Europe, which might be leading to a cascadingand accelerating effect. The s