【罗兰贝格】2026化工行业市值重塑：新常态下化工企业应对之道研究报告 (英文版) (12页) .pdf

Navigating the new realityfor chemical companies Managementsummary The universe of publicly traded chemicals companies is undergoing a structural reset,driven by rising index eligibility thresholds and declining valuations across nearly allsegments and regions. Large cap representation has dropped sharply—from roughly 50% in2017 to less than 15% today—while the share of small and sub-small cap companies hassurged. This shift increases the risk of index exclusion, reduced liquidity, and higher volalityfor many firms. Market caps have declined at a median CAGR of (4.8 %) since 2017, with even the mostresilient (“Winners”) companies experiencing negative trends. Smaller scale is now heavilypenalized in valuation, as large cap companies trade at materially higher EBITDA multiples.Falling below index thresholds can trigger forced selling by institutional investors, furthercompounding these challenges. At the same time, three structural headwinds are reshaping global competitiveness andlimiting near-term recovery prospects: Chinese overcapacity, Europe’s high cost base, andrising US tariff exposure. These factors are driving a fundamental reset in the industry, withconsolidation and take-private activity expected to accelerate. Looking ahead, consolidation and take-private activity are expected to accelerate andmany companies face the existential question of should they remain independent andpublicly traded. To remain competitive in this new environment, companies must focus onportfolio clarity, credible growth plans, cost competitiveness, disciplined capital structure,and a clear equity story. Contents 65% of publicly listedchemical industrycompanies arenow consideredsmall-cap orsmaller Companies losetwo turns of EV/EBITDA as theymove from mid-cap to small-cap,and another twowhen movingfrom small-capto below Only chemicalcompanies withwinning strategiesand compellingequity stories canmaintain valuationmultiples The market cap status of chemical companies isfundamentally changing The global chemicals industry is undergoing a profound transformation in its capital marketstatus, driven by a combination of rising index eligibility thresholds and declining valuations.Over the past decade, the market capitalization threshold for inclusion in major indicesincreased sharply at a 12-21 % CAGR between 2017 and 2025. The challenge in achievingthese new thresholds is not a reflection of chemical sector performance, but rather abyproduct of the outsized growth of technology companies. Technology companies havepulled index thresholds higher and left traditional sectors struggling to keep pace. The shift has led to a recategorization of chemical companies by market cap. In 2017,roughly half of chemical companies qualified as large cap. By 2025, that figure plummetedto just 14 %. At the same time, the share of small and below small cap companies has soaredfrom 8 % to 65 %. A growing number of chemical companies are now at risk of exclusion frommajor indices and from the mandates of institutional investors. The implication is stark andincreasingly unavoidable.A Chemical companies have steadily shifted from large-capto small-cap indices since 2017, 2017-2025[%] Declining market caps and rising requirements The squeeze on chemical companies is twofold. On one side, index requirements are risingat a pace that far outpaces chemical sector growth. On the other, the median market cap ofchemical companies is falling at a negative CAGR of 4.8 %. Nearly all chemical segments andregions have experienced negative CAGRs in market cap since 2017. The largest drops canbe seen in diversified chemicals with a decline of 13 % while Latin American players havesuffered an 18.9 % drop. The Roland Berger Winners model provides a critical lens for understanding whichcompanies are best positioned to withstand these pressures. The Winners model allowscompanies to understand their operating performance relative to the industry and that oftheir competitors and are placed into four categories: Winners, Cash Generators, ProfitlessGrowers, and Underperformers. These companies are defined by their ability to combinegrowth, risk-adjusted profitability, financial scale and execution – attributes that are moreimportant than ever in today’s environment. Even among these most resilient companies,market cap declines have not been fully avoided, with Winners reflecting a negative CAGR of3 %. However, the Winners quadrant stands out for having the smallest proportion ofcompanies that decreased in multiple between 2020 and 2024, underscoring the protectiveeffect of these core attributes.B Median chemical company market caps have decreased since 2017,but S&P index thresholds continue to increase, 2017-2025 [USD bn] The compounding negative effect on valuation The consequences of declining market caps extend beyond index eligibility. There is a direct,compounding impact on company valuation with scale commanding a significant premiumin the market. I