耐克：伯恩斯坦零售论坛要点

Aneesha Sherman+1 917 344 8457aneesha.sherman@bernsteinsg.com Nike Inc Jessica Tian+1 917 344 8413jessica.tian@bernsteinsg.com Jed Hodulik+1 917 344 8594jed.hodulik@bernsteinsg.com Price Target NKE Nike: Key takeaways from Bernstein's Retail Forum Last week, we hosted Nike IR at our Retail Forum for investor meetings. The turnaround isongoing, though the tone was constructive and visibility seemingly improving. FY27 remains a transition year with Lifestyle (“Sportswear”) in modest decline untilclearance is lapped and newness comes in the Spring. While Performance continues togrow across all regions, the ~60% of company sales that is Nike and Jordan Lifestyle productcontinues to shrink, driven primarily by continued YoY declines in Classics (4 ppt headwindin FY26; we model 2 ppt in FY27). A broad set of new Lifestyle product in Spring 2027, plusmoderating YoY declines in Classics, should start to drive growth in Lifestyle in CY27 (wemodel late FY27 and into FY28). Margins should inflect before sales does, as Nike laps LY’sheavy clearance in all regions and Overheads dollar costs continue to decline. Regional color: N. America Wholesale continues to grow and DTC declines shouldmoderate. N.Am Wholesale is improving as order books to existing partners (e.g. DKS / FL)and re-established partners (e.g. Run Specialty) continue to grow and business with newpartners (e.g. Amazon) keeps building. As DTC sales finish lapping LY’s heavy clearance,the disparity between DTC and Wholesale trends should narrow over the coming quarters.China continues a multi-Q reset: cutting back low-quality sales, renovating stores,and building a local team. While marketplace sell-out is positive, sell-in remains negativeas NKE cuts low-quality discounted online sales and invests into the market (e.g. storerenovations, consumer insights in 20 cities, local design/product team). Investor Day will include mid-term guide and CY27 product showcase, under new CFODave Denton (starting Aug). We believe this is the next catalyst, with a concrete mid-term algoand visibility into product roadmap for the next 12-18 months. Investment Implications DETAILS Last week, we hosted Nike Investor Relations at our Bernstein Retail Forum for investor meetings. We recap the key takeaways below. Bernstein clients are welcome to reach out to us for more detailed takeaways and adiscussion of our views on Nike. CADENCE OF GROWTH THROUGH THE YEAR •Lifestyle (~60% of the portfolio) is still expected to decline in FY27 overall (we model ~MSD% declines for FY27- see Exhibit 1). Lifestyle Footwear (including Nike and Jordan brands) together with Lifestyle Apparel comprise nearly60% of sales, with Nike brand alone roughly ~50% and Jordan’s Lifestyle portion about HSD%. This part of the businessincludes the Classics franchises (Air Force 1, Air Jordan 1 and Dunk) which have been severely declining, and together drovea ~$2b revenue decline (~4 pt headwind on total sales) in FY26. They should continue to decline in FY27 though to a smallerextent and weighted to the first Half, particularly Dunk as it laps a heavy FY25 holiday season, while AF1 and AJ1 have largelystabilized. •We model a MSD% decline in Lifestyle for FY27, narrowing the drag on total company sales from 4 ppts in FY26 to~2 ppts in FY27. As this drag on sales fades, we expect total revenue growth to return to positive territory, which we modelhappening in H2 FY27. •China and Europe weigh on sales for Q1, driving the guidance for -LSD% to -MSD%. The impact of lapping LY’spromotional activity in Europe, as well as intentionally cutting sell-in in China, are the main drivers for Q1’s decline. N.Am isfurther along in the cleanup, but Mgmt is still managing sell-through volatility and order books partner by partner, to keep themarket clean before new Lifestyle products launch in H2'27. Q1’s guide also includes some conservatism given that Q4 exitrate was running below plan and Mgmt assumed a continuation of that trend rather than an improvement. The flip side is that,as Nike pays more attention to quality of sales and full-price selling, gross margin should improve from Q1 onward. •Q2’s sequential deceleration is not an underlying deterioration, but rather a function of tough compares in NorthAm and Europe. Nike noted that the underlying business is not expected to worsen in any way in Q2. However, two factorsmake the compare tougher: (1) EMEA’s Digital business is lapping LY’s highly promotional record Cyber Week / Black Fridayperiod, when Nike moved high volumes at steep discounts, and (2) North America’s Wholesale business is lapping +24%growth (vs roughly +10% in the other quarters) from opening up new accounts and also timing of shipments LY. •Exhibit 1 shows our view of the moving parts for FY27 total: Lifestyle (aka Sportswear) declining as detailed above;Performance Footwear growing above market from continued newness in Running, Football and soon Basketball (CaitlinClark signature produ