埃克森美孚：伯恩斯坦SDC会议要点

www.bernsteinresearch.com BERNSTEIN TICKER TABLETickerRatingXOMSPXO - Outperform, M - Market-Perform, U - Underperform, NR - Not Rated, CS - Coverage SuspendedSource: Bloomberg, Bernstein estimates and analysis.AMERICAS ENERGY & TRANSITION I. REQUIRED DISCLOSURESReferences to "Bernstein" or the “Firm” in these disclosures relate to the following entities: Bernstein Institutional Services LLC(April 1, 2024 onwards), Sanford C. Bernstein & Co., LLC (pre April 1, 2024), Bernstein Autonomous LLP, BSG France S.A. (April 1,2024 onwards), Sanford C. Bernstein (Hong Kong) Limited盛博香港有限公司,C. Bernstein (India) Private Limited (SEBI registration no. INH000006378), Sanford C. Bernstein (Singapore) Private Limited andSanford C. Bernstein Japan KKOn April 1, 2024, Société Générale (SG) and AllianceBernstein, L.P. (AB) completed a transaction that created a new joint venturein which their respective cash equities and research businesses operate in a new business combination. Although their respectiveownership percentages in the joint venture differ between North America and the rest of the world, the creation, production andpublication of research is handled collaboratively on a global basis across the two research brands, “Bernstein” and “Autonomous”.Unless specifically noted otherwise, for purposes of these disclosures, references to Bernstein’s “affiliates” relate to both SG andAB and their respective affiliates.VALUATION METHODOLOGYExxon Mobil CorpWe rate XOM Outperform. We reach our target price of $140/sh by applying a 6.0x multiple to 2026E EBITDA of $97.9B andincorporating additional FCF to shareholders.RISKSExxon Mobil CorpWe rate XOM Outperform. Key downside risks to our price target include (a) market conditions yielding lower commodity pricesthan forecast, (b) failure to execute on critical growth initiatives (e.g. Stabroek, Permian, downstream/petrochemicals expansions),(c) lower refining margins than forecast, and (d) a prolonged polymer downcycle.RATINGS DEFINITIONS, BENCHMARKS AND DISTRIBUTIONBernstein brandThe Bernstein brand rates stocks based on forecasts of relative performance for the next 12 months versus the S&P 500 forstocks listed on the U.S. and Canadian exchanges, versus the Bloomberg Europe Developed Markets Large and Mid Cap PriceReturn Index (EDM) for stocks listed on the European exchanges and emerging markets exchanges outside of the Asia Pacificregion, versus the Bloomberg Japan Large and Mid Cap Price Return Index USD (JP) for stocks listed on the Japanese exchanges,and versus the Bloomberg Asia ex-Japan Large and Mid Cap Price Return Index (ASIAX) for stocks listed on the Asian (ex-Japan)exchanges -unless otherwise specified.The Bernstein brand has three categories of ratings:•Outperform: Stock will outpace the market index by more than 15 pp•Market-Perform: Stock will perform in line with the market index to within +/-15 pp•Underperform: Stock will trail the performance of the market index by more than 15 ppCoverage Suspended: Coverage of a company under the Bernstein research brand has been suspended. Ratings and price targetsare suspended temporarily, are no longer current, and should therefore not be relied upon.Not Rated: A rating assigned when the stock cannot be accurately valued, or the performance of the company accuratelypredicted, at the present time. The covering analyst may continue to publish research reports on the company to update investorson events and developments.AMERICAS ENERGY & TRANSITION Sanford C. Bernstein (Canada) Limited, Sanford(サンフォード・C・バーンスタイン株式会社).3 Not Covered (NC) denotes companies that are not under coverage.Autonomous brandThe Autonomous brand rates stocks as indicated below. As our benchmarks we use the Bloomberg Europe 500 Banks AndFinancial Services Index (BEBANKS) and Bloomberg Europe Dev Mkt Financials Large and Mid Cap Price Ret Index EUR (EDMFI)index for developed European banks and Payments, the Bloomberg Europe 500 Insurance Index (BEINSUR) for Europeaninsurers, the S&P 500 and S&P Financials for US banks and Payments coverage, S5LIFE for US Insurance, the S&P InsuranceSelect Industry (SPSIINS) for US Non-Life Insurers coverage, and the Bloomberg Emerging Markets Financials Large, Mid andSmall Cap Price Return Index (EMLSF) for emerging market banks and insurers and Payments. Ratings are stated relative to thesector (not the market).The Autonomous brand has three categories of ratings:•Outperform (OP): Stock will outpace the relevant index by more than 10 pp•Neutral (N): Stock will perform in line with the market index to within +/-10 pp•Underperform (UP): Stock will trail the performance of the relevant index by more than 10 ppCoverage Suspended: Coverage of a company under the Bernstein research brand has been suspended. Ratings and price targetsare suspended temporarily, are no longer current, and should therefore not be relied upon.Not Rated: A rating assigned when the stock cannot be accurately valued, or the performance of the compan