埃克森美孚：伯恩斯坦SDC会议要点

Bob Brackett, Ph.D.+1 917 344 8422bob.brackett@bernsteinsg.comMinnie Xu+1 917 344 8574minnie.xu@bernsteinsg.comAnshika Bajpai+1 917 344 8306anshika.bajpai@bernsteinsg.com Exxon Mobil Corp (XOM) Presenter: Neil Chapman, Senior Vice President 5/28/26, 9:00 am Takeaway:XOM emphasizes differentiated position from technological advances, with XOM targeting a 50% resource recovery rate inthe Permian. XOM is focused on core capabilities, committing capital to assets only when cost of supply is below $35/bbl, while assessingadditional opportunities internationally. Highlights: •XOM points to several mitigating factors that have moderated oil price jumps in the short term including: sanctioned oil on water beingreleased, inventories being depleted acting as a buffer, and the release of SPRs from various countries. As inventory levels diminish tocritical levels, XOM expects an inflection of oil price to the $150/bbl range. •XOM sees depressed gas prices continuing into the future as Neil contends there exists ample additional supply at the $3.5 marginal costlevel that will supplement the market, even with demand increases.•XOM expects significant gains to resource recovery rates in unconventional wells, to 50% by the end of the decade, up from traditionally10% recovered oil. Presentation attendance:high BERNSTEIN TICKER TABLE I. REQUIRED DISCLOSURES References to "Bernstein" or the “Firm” in these disclosures relate to the following entities: Bernstein Institutional Services LLC(April 1, 2024 onwards), Sanford C. Bernstein & Co., LLC (pre April 1, 2024), Bernstein Autonomous LLP, BSG France S.A. (April 1,2024 onwards), Sanford C. Bernstein (Hong Kong) Limited盛博香港有限公司,Sanford C. Bernstein (Canada) Limited, SanfordC. Bernstein (India) Private Limited (SEBI registration no. INH000006378), Sanford C. Bernstein (Singapore) Private Limited,Sanford C. Bernstein Japan KK(サンフォード・C・バーンスタイン株式会社)and analysts employed by Société GénéraleAfrica Technologies & Services to produce Bernstein research under a Global Services Agreement in place between Bernsteinand Société Générale. Bernstein is part of a joint venture between Société Générale (SG) and AllianceBernstein, L.P. (AB). Unless specifically notedotherwise, for purposes of these disclosures, references to Bernstein’s “affiliates” relate to both SG and AB and their respectiveaffiliates. VALUATION METHODOLOGY Exxon Mobil Corp We rate XOM Outperform. We reach our target price of $182/sh by applying an 7.0x multiple to 2027E EBITDA of $96B andincorporating additional FCF to shareholders. RISKS Exxon Mobil Corp We rate XOM Outperform. Key downside risks to our price target include (a) market conditions yielding lower commodity pricesthan forecast, (b) failure to execute on critical growth initiatives (e.g. Stabroek, Permian, downstream/petrochemicals expansions),(c) lower refining margins than forecast, and (d) a prolonged polymer downcycle. RATINGS DEFINITIONS, BENCHMARKS AND DISTRIBUTION EQUITY RATINGS DEFINITIONS Bernstein brand The Bernstein brand rates stocks based on forecasts of relative performance for the next 12 months versus the S&P 500 forstocks listed on the U.S. and Canadian exchanges, versus the Bloomberg Europe Developed Markets Large and Mid Cap PriceReturn Index EUR (EDME) for stocks listed on the European exchanges and emerging markets exchanges outside of the AsiaPacific region, versus the Bloomberg Japan Large and Mid Cap Price Return Index USD (JPL) for stocks listed on the Japaneseexchanges, and versus the Bloomberg Asia ex-Japan Large and Mid Cap Price Return Index (ASIAX) for stocks listed on the Asian(ex-Japan) exchanges -unless otherwise specified. The Bernstein brand has three categories of ratings: •Outperform: Stock will outpace the market index by more than 15 pp•Market-Perform: Stock will perform in line with the market index to within +/-15 pp•Underperform: Stock will trail the performance of the market index by more than 15 pp Coverage Suspended: Coverage of a company under the Bernstein research brand has been suspended. Ratings and price targetsare suspended temporarily, are no longer current, and should therefore not be relied upon. Not Rated: A rating assigned when the stock cannot be accurately valued, or the performance of the company accuratelypredicted, at the present time. The covering analyst may continue to publish research reports on the company to update investorson events and developments. Not Covered (NC) denotes companies that are not under coverage. Bernstein brand stock ratings are based on a 12-month time horizon. Autonomous brand – common stocks The Autonomous brand rates common stocks as indicated below. As our benchmarks we use the Bloomberg Europe 500 BanksAnd Financial Services Index (BEBANKS) and Bloomberg Europe Dev Mkt Financials Large and Mid Cap Price Ret Index EUR(EDMFI) index for developed European banks and Payments, the Bloomberg Europe 500 Insurance Index (BEINSUR) for Europeaninsurer