agl：伯恩斯坦sdc的要点

www.bernsteinresearch.com How AGL helps practices.AGL said their practices are very satisfied with the value AGL brings to the table, with promoter scores from theirphysicians in the 70s and 80s. AGL spends a lot of time trying to get the basics of VBC right, including attribution work to make sure thatthey are taking the right risks, implementing burden of illness and quality programs, and making sure that they are identifying and prioritizingcomplex patients. The latter is incredibly important as chronic diseases drive the majority of the spend. Thus AGL focuses on getting complexpatients enrolled into advanced illness management programs to stabilize and manage them.ACO REACH.AGL said they generate higher PMPMs in their ACO REACH program. This is due to the gap on revenue and cost that exists withinMA and its catch up. ACO REACH corrects within a year. AGL also gets rewarded for beating the cost trend at the local level, which they havedone consistently. Also, there is no supplemental benefits and no payer bidding in ACO REACH.AGL comments on J curve.AGL follows a capital light model which improves the performance of the J-curve. Typically, they break even onyear 1 with a range of $30-60 in PMPM. They decided not take risk in 25 but ultimately they plan to move the 25 cohort to full risk with 26 MArate giving them a good start. Ultimately AGL still believes they can generate $150-200 in PMPM once the cohort matures.U.S. HEALTHCARE SERVICES2 BERNSTEIN TICKER TABLETickerRatingAGLSPXO - Outperform, M - Market-Perform, U - Underperform, NR - Not Rated, CS - Coverage SuspendedSource: Bloomberg, Bernstein estimates and analysis.U.S. HEALTHCARE SERVICES I. REQUIRED DISCLOSURESReferences to "Bernstein" or the “Firm” in these disclosures relate to the following entities: Bernstein Institutional Services LLC(April 1, 2024 onwards), Sanford C. Bernstein & Co., LLC (pre April 1, 2024), Bernstein Autonomous LLP, BSG France S.A. (April 1,2024 onwards), Sanford C. Bernstein (Hong Kong) Limited盛博香港有限公司,C. Bernstein (India) Private Limited (SEBI registration no. INH000006378), Sanford C. Bernstein (Singapore) Private Limited andSanford C. Bernstein Japan KKOn April 1, 2024, Société Générale (SG) and AllianceBernstein, L.P. (AB) completed a transaction that created a new joint venturein which their respective cash equities and research businesses operate in a new business combination. Although their respectiveownership percentages in the joint venture differ between North America and the rest of the world, the creation, production andpublication of research is handled collaboratively on a global basis across the two research brands, “Bernstein” and “Autonomous”.Unless specifically noted otherwise, for purposes of these disclosures, references to Bernstein’s “affiliates” relate to both SG andAB and their respective affiliates.VALUATION METHODOLOGYagilon healthWe arrive at price target of $7.50 using a DCF approach. We believe DCF is the appropriate valuation methodology given AGLearnings reside several years in the future. We assume a cost of equity of ~17.5% in the model until we expect the company toreach cashflow breakeven in 2027, reflecting the higher risk associated with the stock as the company is yet to reach breakeven.Beyond that we assume cost of ~11.5%, with lower cost of equity reflecting the lower risk associated with AGL stock after reachingbreakevenRISKSagilon healthDownside risks: The biggest downside risk is the scenario whereby it is clear that AGL needs to raise capital. We see several factorsthat could bring about such a scenario. These include acceleration in utilization trends in MA, medical margins for new cohorts notdeveloping as expected, unfavorable outcome in payer contract negotiations, turnaround plans not producing strong outcome,and poor execution by PCP partners leading to higher costs.RATINGS DEFINITIONS, BENCHMARKS AND DISTRIBUTIONBernstein brandThe Bernstein brand rates stocks based on forecasts of relative performance for the next 12 months versus the S&P 500 forstocks listed on the U.S. and Canadian exchanges, versus the Bloomberg Europe Developed Markets Large and Mid Cap PriceReturn Index (EDM) for stocks listed on the European exchanges and emerging markets exchanges outside of the Asia Pacificregion, versus the Bloomberg Japan Large and Mid Cap Price Return Index USD (JP) for stocks listed on the Japanese exchanges,and versus the Bloomberg Asia ex-Japan Large and Mid Cap Price Return Index (ASIAX) for stocks listed on the Asian (ex-Japan)exchanges -unless otherwise specified.The Bernstein brand has three categories of ratings:•Outperform: Stock will outpace the market index by more than 15 pp•Market-Perform: Stock will perform in line with the market index to within +/-15 pp•Underperform: Stock will trail the performance of the market index by more than 15 ppCoverage Suspended: Coverage of a company under the Bernstein research brand has been suspended. Ratings and price targetsa