中观周报：上游下游延续弱态

中观总览 上游：本周上游原材料行业整体呈现分化偏弱态势。能源方面，国际油价与国内成品油价格大幅回落；有色金属锌、镍、铜和铅价格小幅上行；黑色系中多数商品小幅回落；化工品涨跌互现，苯乙烯、聚乙烯和PTA价格回升，整体以弱势整理为主。 中游：本周中游制造业延续分化格局。有色方面，铜精矿加工费持续处于历史低位，冶炼利润归零压制生产积极性，整体冶炼开工率较此前小幅回落；能源方面，全国用电负荷创历史新高，电厂日耗高位运行；农业方面，棉花检验量处三年同期高位，生猪屠宰开工率小幅回落，大豆压榨量较上期明显回升；化工方面，聚乙烯下游开工偏弱震荡，PTA开工降至低位整理。 下游：本周下游消费延续弱态。汽车方面，整体销售延续弱态。地产方面，北京、上海、福州等城市新房销售较此前回升，多数城市销售较此前回落；必选消费中，粮油食品等刚需品类线上销售保持韧性，但饮料、烟酒等可选消费增速仍偏弱，整体需求端复苏动能尚待观察。 细分行业 大农业：棉花、玉米价格回落，棕榈油价格小幅上行；苹果、玉米持续去库。 能源：国际原油和液化天然气价格大幅回落。 采矿业：有色价格方面，锌、镍、铜和铅价格小幅上行。有色库存方面，铅、铝和铜去库延续；黑色价格方面，炼焦煤、铁矿石和螺纹钢小幅回落。黑色库存方面，炼焦煤回落，其余较先前持平。 化工：苯乙烯、聚乙烯和PTA价格回升，甲醇延续回落；尿素库存堆积，MTO库存回落。 基建：水泥、混凝土价格与此前持平；水泥供给、混凝土产能小幅回落。 地产：本周重点监控城市中，北京、上海、福州新房销售套数较此前提升，多数城市新房销售套数较此前回落。 物流运输：美西航线和欧洲航线延续上行。邮政、铁路货运上行。国际航班班次季节性上行。 风险 上游价格快速上涨，外部风险冲突 目录 一、中观总览............................................................................................................................................4二、行业总览............................................................................................................................................52.1生产行业............................................................................................................................................................................52.2服务行业............................................................................................................................................................................6三、行业定价............................................................................................................................................7四、细分行业跟踪....................................................................................................................................104.1广义农业..........................................................................................................................................................................104.2化工行业..........................................................................................................................................................................104.3有色行业..........................................................................................................................................................................114.4黑色行业..........................................................................................................................................................................114.5基建行业..........................................................................................................................................................................124.6物流运输..........................................................................................................................................................................134.7汽车制造业......................................................................................................................................................................144.8地产行业..........................................................................................................................................................................14 图表 图1：全社会用电量....................................................................................................................................................................4图2：GDP分产业........................................................................................................................................................................4图3：通胀....................................................................................................................................................................................4图4：PMI....................................................................................................................................................................................4图5：生产行业PPI......................................................................................................................................................................5图6：生产行业工业增加值同比................................................................................................................................................5图7：纺织市场景气指数............................................................................................................................................................6图8：上海出口集装箱结算运价指数........................................................................................................................................6图9：邮政数据............................................................................................................................................................................6图10：社会消费品零售同比......................................................................................................................................................6图11：行业市场定价...................................................................................................................................