中国房地产：积极展望：布局核心城市成交量强劲增长

China Property Positive View: Position for a Stronger Volume Growth in Core Cities CITI'S TAKE Griffin ChanAC+852-2501-2438griffin.chan@citi.com Position for sales growth and pickup in launches from Sep; look throughweak 1H earnings— Our constructive sector view is backed by (1) likelyaccelerating sales growth in Jul-Sep on resilient transaction volumes in corecities and a favorable low base; (2) a stronger new launch pipeline from Sep;(3) expectation for a supportive tone from July’s Politburo meeting. Despitethe recent sector share price retreat, physical market activity remains firm,with primary/secondary transaction units in key cities increasing 18%/12%yoy in the first week of July. We believe 1H26 earnings weakness is widelyexpected by the market, while guidance on sales & margin could also besupportive. As such, we think the sector is well prepared for a bull run in Jul-Oct. Our updated top picks are: CRL, C&D, Beike, Jinmao & COLI. We turnedmore positive on C&D from Jun after its product upgrades & acceleratedlandbanking. Cindy Li+852-2501-2710cindy.li@citi.com Primary & secondary volume gaining strength in July— Secondary volume in thefirst week of July rose 12%yoy across 18 cities (WIND), led by tier-1 cities +21%yoy,and listings down 0.1%wow. The weekly volume of 25.3k units is healthy (6% above2025 avg) during a typically slow summer season. In the first half of July, volume+13%yoy at 15 cities (Real Estate Market Calendar), with more than 20%yoy growthfor FS/ NB/ SH/ Suzhou and 10-20% growth for CD/ SZ/ BJ/ DG. Secondary pricesin the 6 core cities continued the mom stabilization trend. New home volumein 34cities was +18%yoy (CREIS) in the first week of July, driven chiefly by improved sell-through for ongoing sales, especially luxury units & the smaller entry-level units. Forlisted names, we expect more could turn to positive sales growth in Jul–Aug, partlyaided by a low comparison base. Sales growth for leaders should also accelerate. In1H26, five names already delivered positive sales growth: COLI +12%yoy, Jinmao+8%, CMSK +8%, CRL +6%, COGO +15%. Land: reduced supply pushed up prices for quality plots; awaiting 2H window—— 1H26 land sales in 300 cities were -22%yoy by GFA (20-year low), and landpurchase from top-100 players was -25%, per CRIC. Constrained supply has pushedthe avg land premium to 13.7% in Jun (+8pts mom; e.g., SZ, HZ, SH). Leaders by landacq cost were CRL (strong in SZ), Poly Dev & Yuexiu. Elsewhere, COLI/ Jinmao/ C&D/Greentown plan to acquire in 2H26 when supply pickup could offer more attractiveland prices, after strong 2025. C&D paced up in Jun (SZ/ SH/ HZ/ Wuxi/ Suzhou/Fuzhou etc.). Policy: renewal progressing; supportive to the recovery momentum— [1] QiushiJournal (18-Jun) called for efforts to boost consumption, accelerate repair ofhousehold balance sheets and stabilize the property market to prevent negativeimpacts to confidence. [2] Renewal investment in 2026: central budget is Rmb97bn(+Rmb17bn or +21% yoy) and another Rmb160bn ultra-long-term special CGB(+Rmb25bn or +18.5% yoy). [3] We expect a supportive tone at the July Politburomeeting. Locally, easing on HPF/ trade-in programs etc. are expected amid marketrecovery to reinforce the upturn and household expectations. See Appendix A-1 for Analyst Certification, Important Disclosures and Research Analyst Affiliations. Not for distribution in the People's Republic of China, excluding the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region and QualifiedForeign Institutional Investors. Source: CREIS, Citi Research If you are visually impaired and would like to speak to a Citi representative regarding the detailsof the graphics in this document, please call USA 1-888-500-5008 (TTY: 711), from outside theUS +1-210-677-3788 Appendix A-1 ANALYST CERTIFICATION The research analysts primarily responsible for the preparation and content of this research report are either (i) designatedby “AC” in the author block or (ii) listed in bold alongside content which is attributable to that analyst. If multiple ACanalysts are designated in the author block, each analyst is certifying with respect to the entire research report other than(a) content attributable to another AC certifying analyst listed in bold alongside the content and (b) views expressed solelywith respect to a specific issuer which are attributable to another AC certifying analyst identified in the price charts orrating history tables for that issuer shown below. Each of these analysts certify, with respect to the sections of the reportfor which they are responsible: (1) that the views expressed therein accurately reflect their personal views about eachissuer and security referenced and were prepared in an independent manner, including with respect to Citigroup GlobalMarkets Inc. and its affiliates; and (2) no part of the research analyst's compensation was, is, or will be, directly orindirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed by that resea