中国宏桥（1378.HK）稳健盈利确认估值吸引力

China (PRC) | Metals & MiningChina Hongqiao Solid earnings reaffirms attractive valuation Conclusion China Hongqiao announced 1H26 profit alert expecting NPAT to increaseby ~39% YoY, i.e. to RMB17.2bn, implying unit net profit of ~RMB6k/t. Theresult falls within our expected range of RMB17-18bn, as the companybenefited from strong aluminum price, which averaged RMB24k/t in 1H26vs RMB20.3k/t in 1H25, and we expect no CB-related FV loss. China Hongqiao is currently trading at 5.2x 2026E PE with 12%+ dividendyield assuming 65% payout. We believe the valuation is very attractive.The stock suffered from a material derating in the past months, becauseinvestors worry about capacity restarts and acceleration of ex-Chinaexpansions, which could weigh on aluminum price. While we agree a de-escalation in the Middle East brings headwinds to aluminum sentiment inthe short term, we believe the market remains in tight balance in the next6-12 months as volume recovery takes time. Related Research Company Description China Hongqiao China Hongqiao is a multinational enterprise covering the entire aluminum industry chain. Developed into one of the world’s largest aluminumproducers in 2015, Hongqiao is specialized in thermoelectric, mining, and producing aluminum products. Its diverse product portfolio includesalumina, hot liquid aluminum alloy, aluminum alloy ingots, rolled and cast aluminum alloy products, aluminum busbar, high-precision aluminumplates with foil, and new materials. It was listed on the Main Board of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange in 2011. Company Valuation/Risks China Hongqiao Our price target is based on 2026E EPS of RMB3.5 and target PE of 11x. Under our base case, aluminum and alumina prices are RMB23.2k/t andRMB2.7k/t, respectively. Risks include lower-than-expected downstream demand and lower-than-expected aluminum/ alumina prices. Analyst Certification: I, Shuhang Jiang, certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject security(ies) andsubject company(ies). I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations orviews expressed in this research report. Registration of non-US analysts:Shuhang Jiang is employed by Jefferies Hong Kong Limited, a non-US affiliate of Jefferies LLC and is not registered/qualified as a research analyst with FINRA. This analyst(s) may not be an associated person of Jefferies LLC, a FINRA member firm, and therefore maynot be subject to the FINRA Rule 2241 and restrictions on communications with a subject company, public appearances and trading securities held bya research analyst. As is the case with all Jefferies employees, the analyst(s) responsible for the coverage of the financial instruments discussed in this report receivescompensation based in part on the overall performance of the firm, including investment banking income. We seek to update our research as appropriate,but various regulations may prevent us from doing so. Aside from certain industry reports published on a periodic basis, the large majority of reports arepublished at irregular intervals as appropriate in the analyst's judgement. Investment Recommendation Record (Article 3(1)e and Article 7 of MAR) Recommendation PublishedJuly 10, 2026 8:38 A.M.Recommendation DistributedJuly 10, 2026 8:38 A.M. Explanation of Jefferies Ratings Hold - Describes securities that we expect to provide a total return (price appreciation plus yield) of plus 15% or minus 10% within a 12-month period. Underperform - Describes securities that we expect to provide a total return (price appreciation plus yield) of minus 10% or less within a 12-month period.The expected total return (price appreciation plus yield) for Buy rated securities with an average security price consistently below $10 is 20% or more withina 12-month period as these companies are typically more volatile than the overall stock market. For Hold rated securities with an average security priceconsistently below $10, the expected total return (price appreciation plus yield) is plus or minus 20% within a 12-month period. For Underperform ratedsecurities with an average security price consistently below $10, the expected total return (price appreciation plus yield) is minus 20% or less within a 12-month period. NR - The investment rating and price target have been temporarily suspended. Such suspensions are in compliance with applicable regulations and/orJefferies policies. Restricted - Describes issuers where, in conjunction with Jefferies engagement in certain transactions, company policy or applicable securities regulationsprohibit certain types of communications, including investment recommendations. Monitor - Describes securities whose company fundamentals and financials are being monitored, and for which no financial projections or opinions on theinvestment merits of the company are provided. Valua