中国企业计划新增一体化VAM装置

China Player Plans Additional Integrated VAM Plant CITI'S TAKE ICIS notes China's Yulong Petrochemical is planning to install a 300ktpaVAM plant in Yantai City. The vertically integrated project is expected tohave a 550ktpa methanol plant and a 400ktpa acetic acid plant. Thispotential project would add ~3% to global VAM supply and ~1% to globalacetic supply on a 2026 basis. While current start up date is notannounced, the project is awaiting environmental approvals. While weview the immediate news modestly negative for CE and to a lesser extentLYB, we note that the VAM output will be mainly used for Yulong's ownEVA production, minimizing supply bleed of VAM and acetic acid. Thatsaid, continued project announcements in China across several chainspotentially indicate more pressure for merchant players. We think thisannouncement supports a trend of more integration and runs counter tothe narrative of decelerating Chinese supply additions later in the decade. Patrick CunninghamAC +1-212-816-6684patrick.cunningham@citi.com Alexander Yi+1-212-816-4220alexander.yi@citi.com Rachel Lee+1-212-816-4559rachel.lee@citi.com © 2026 Citigroup Inc. No redistribution without Citigroup's written permission.Source: Citi Research, Chemical Market Analytics Celanese (CE.N; US$46.64; 1H; 09 Jul 26; 16:00) Valuation We apply a ~8.5x target multiple to our 2027E EBITDA estimate of ~$2.2bn (after subtracting net debt of ~$10.8bn) to get atarget price of $68. Over the past 5 years, CE's forward EV/EBITDA multiple has ranged between ~4.5x and 12x, with anaverage of ~8.5x. Our valuation multiple is at historical averages due to potentially positive cyclical leverage to a globaldemand recovery, particularly autos and B&C, partially offset by structural supply pressure and potential challenges withspreads. Risks This stock is High-Risk based on our quantitative model and we believe this classification is appropriate for CE supported byrecent stock price volatility, elevated leverage, and uncertainty in execution of a volume growth strategy for both EM and ACbusinesses in the face of an ongoing global supply glut. We see the following risks that could prevent the stock from achieving our target price: Acetyl Capacity Growth: If global acetic acid capacity adds exceed GDP growth, utilization and Acetyl Intermediates earningscould decline. Price Swings in Raw Materials: CE is exposed to the volatility in prices of raw materials. CE purchases large quantities ofmethanol, natural gas, ethylene, butane, etc. The prices of these commodities can fluctuate wildly, and price increases cannotalways be passed onto the customer. On the flipside, if raw material prices decrease, it could result in margin expansion andnear-term upside. Exposure to the US Auto and Construction Markets: CE's Acetyl and EM divisions have housing and auto as their key endmarkets. A reversal of the recovery in US housing and auto end markets would be a headwind. If the impact on the company from any of these factors differs from our base case expectations, the stock could have difficultyachieving our target price or could increase more than we expect. LyondellBasell (LYB.N; US$55.39; 1; 09 Jul 26; 16:00) Valuation Our $67 target price is based on EV/EBITDA on 2027E. We apply a ~6.5x EV/EBITDA multiple to our 2027E EBITDA of roughly$4.9bn. Over the past five years, LYB’s forward EV/EBITDA multiple has ranged ~4x-14x, with an average of ~7x. We believetarget multiples below mid-cycle averages are warranted on cyclical multiple logic with near-term earnings above mid-cycle Risks We see the following risks that could prevent the stock from achieving our target price: Energy & Feedstock Prices: LYB is exposed to oil and natural gas liquid prices. Lower raw-material costs (namely ethane,propane, and butane) would be positive, as would gradually rising oil prices given their effect on plastics prices. Conversely, anarrower spread between oil and gas prices would be negative for LYB. Capacity Additions: LYB has significant commodity exposure due to its leading position in ethylene/PE. Several producersintend to add capacity in ethylene and PE over the next few years, a lot of which could come from China. If supply growthoutpaces demand growth, LYB’s ethylene and PE volumes and pricing power could come under further pressure. Macroeconomic Conditions: LYB’s segments operate in global end markets, such as durable goods and autos, which tend to benotably cyclical. A slowdown in global growth and/or industrial production could provide additional downside to ourestimates. Conversely, a period of above-average economic expansion could present upside risk to our target. FX: LYB's operations span the globe, leaving the company exposed to currency fluctuations. If the impact on the company from any of these factors differs from our base case expectations, the stock could have difficultyachieving our target price or could increase more than we expect. If you are