北美金属与矿业：2026年二季度预览，寻找催化剂的行业

Q2’26 preview: a sector in search of acatalyst amidst significant macro volatility Industry Overview 09July 2026 Canmanagement teams manage the Q2’26 cost spike?The North American (NA) Metals & Mining (M&M) sector isto kick off Q2’26 results reporting next week with aluminum producer, Alcoa (AA). Releases are set to pick-up thefollowing week with the copper, precious metals, and steel subsectors represented byFreeport McMoRan (FCX), Newmont (NEM), Reliance (RS), and Steel Dynamics (STLD).The ability of the sector to manage the Hormuz-driven Q2’26 inflation spike should bekey to share price performances this earnings season. Stand-outs in Q2’26 among ourbroader NA M&M coverage include: Cameco (CCJ) for its multi-faceted exposure tonuclear, including rising uranium prices; FCX as it ramps back-up its Grasberg coppermine; and Pan American Silver (PAAS) for its aggressive capital return policy. EquityNorth AmericaMetals and Mining Lawson Winder, CFA>>Research AnalystMerrill Lynch (Canada)+1 416 369 7592lawson.winder@bofa.com SathishKasinathanResearch AnalystBofAS+1 646 855 2769sathish.kasinathan@bofa.com Execution critical in down metal markets Execution is never more important in the Metals &Mining sector as when metal pricesare soft. Thus, with average Q2’26 gold, silver, and uranium prices down 7.5%, 12.6%,and 1% vs. Q1’26 (and copper (+4%) and other base metals up modestly vs. unit costincreases (+9%)), companies that effectively managethe Q2’26 cost inflation spike,are tracking well to guidance (particularly on costs), and have key projects on-budget andschedule should fare well. Otherwise, share prices could suffer materially. The preciousmetal companies are particularly exposed. Strongcapital returnsshould support shareprices. Buy-rated stocks that could beat consensus EBITDA estimates include: ALM,AUGO, CCJ, FCX, NEM, and NUE (see exhibit 7). Adam Smiarowski, CFA>>Research AnalystMerrill Lynch (Canada)+1 416 369 7780adam.smiarowski@bofa.com Key to watch by subsector; looking for the next catalyst Inaluminum, after a robust global supply response post the Middle East smelterdisruptions in Q1’26, prices have collapsed. Future production plans and the durability ofdemand are critical to a recovery in prices. A reclosure of Hormuz could also lift prices. Incopper, supply disruptions have supported prices, but supply relief on its way (i.e. theGrasberg recovery, the QB2 ramp-up, and the Kamoa-Kakula turnaround). Looking for adriver of the next lag higher in prices, look to potential U.S. copper tariffs. Innuclear fuel, we see the contracting cycle having renewed importance as new U.S.reactor builds remain elusive. We are bullish uranium prices in H2’26E. Buy CCJ. Inprecious metals, still-robust free cash flow (FCF), despite the dual headwinds of costinflation and metal price deflation, should keep capital allocation in focus (returns vs.growth). PAAS (and Newmont (NEM)) stand out for aggressive stances on capital return. Inrare earths, we see a need for clarity on a catalyst path. We point to the potential fornew offtake agreements. Buy-rated MP Materials (MP) offers unique exposure. Insteel, with U.S. hot rolled coil (HRC) up 24% year-to-date, the debate centers on pricesustainability given potentially higher domestic output and a widening import arbitrage.Buy-rated Nucor’s (NUE’s) diversification insulates it from HRC downside risk. Contents Key commodity and currency prices3Company earnings overview4Valuation comparables for our universe5BofAe vs. consensus on key Q2’26 metrics7Aluminum focus areas9Copper focus areas9Precious metals focus areas12Rare earths focus areas17Steel focus areas18Tungsten focus areas21Uranium focus areas21Zinc focus areas22Operating data comparison (Q2’26)24BofA vs. consensus estimates (2026E)25Conference call details31 Key commodity and currency prices We compare average commodity prices in Q2’26 vs prior quarters. Gold fell -7.5% QoQalongside silver down -12.6%, which should negatively impact our entire precious metalscoverage. Tungsten is up (+80.3%% QoQ). Provisional pricing impacts in Q2’26We compare average commodity prices in Q2’26 to prices at the end of Q1’26and see positive performance across Tungsten (+18%), Copper (+9%), Zinc (+8%), Nickel (+7%),Lead (+4%) and, which should positively benefit covered companies with provisionalpricing exposure. Silver (-3%) and gold (-3%) declined in performance in Q2’26. Company earnings overview Valuation comparables for our universe Exhibit4:Comparison of EV/EBITDA, FCF Yield and P/NAV across our coverage.Coverage ratings and valuation metrics. BofAe vs. consensus on key Q2’26 metrics Exhibit7: Comparison of BofA Q2’26 Production, Total Cash Costs, EBITDA, and EPS vs. Bloomberg (BBG) consensus estimates across our NorthAmerican Metals & Mining coverage.Key financial and operating metrics vs. BBG consensus Key financial and operating metrics vs. VA consensus Aluminum focus areas Alcoa (AA) •South32 acq