为2026年第二季度布局：奖励计划启动以奖励流量增长

Cheesecake Factory Inc (CAKE.O) Setting the Table for 2Q26: Rewards Launch Rewarding Traffic Growth CITI'S TAKE Out of the gate rewards/app momentum (Figures 1-4) may be enough toreturn Cheesecake Factory to positive traffic, with reasons for ongoingoptimism from here: a relevant/flexible menu, a more engaging social mediastrategy, growing relevance with younger consumers, “the mall is back”, andrewards as a new platform for ongoing engagement. We continue to seeupside to estimates (4%/7% ahead of Street in ‘26/’27 EPS), and we believea firmer view of the SSS trajectory would warrant the valuation range re-setting higher. nBuy Price (09 Jul 26 16:00)US$78.42Target priceUS$90.00↑from US$76.00Expected share price return14.8%Expected dividend yield1.7%Expected total return16.4%Market CapUS$3,896M Key topics/questions for the call – 2Q26 due 7/28 AMC, call 5PM ET—(1)Howmuch did the free slice promo attached to the launch of app/rewards benefit trafficin 2Q? How has engagement trended since then and how else is CAKE using thischannel to interact with customers?(2)Has bites/bowls continued to be a minimalnet impact to check?How has its success informed future menu innovation?(3)What data does CAKE have that suggests it is improving its engagement withyounger customers?How might its social strategy continue to evolve to furthercapitalize on this?(4)An early read on restructured NI lunch pricing. Have there beenoverflow effects to the dinner daypart in terms of customer reaction and/or thoughtson its pricing architecture?(5)Flower Child’s unit growth trajectory from here–whatare the proof points in terms of consistent economics/portability and could the pacepick up from here? What the data says—(1)2Q Yr/Yr footfall moved to positive in the quarter (+2.9%from -1.4% in 1Q) and share gains inflected positive, with CAKE reaching multi-yearseasonal highs of share at times in the quarter.(2)Second Measure data alsoimproved with transactions/sales accelerating to -0.6%/+2.9% from -2.1%/+1.0%.(3)Dairy prices were mixed in 2Q and we are curious how growth in demand couldbe impacting specific components CAKE buys. Adjusting estimates and PT—Adjusting our 2026E/2027E EPS to $4.18/$4.74 from$4.09/$4.55 on better 2Q-4Q SSS. Our PT moves to $90, or a 12x multiple (~0.8xthe market multiple, up from 0.7x on a stronger expected SSS trajectory) applied toour NTM, 12 months from now, EBITDA estimate. Jon Tower, CFAAC+1-212-816-6238jon.tower@citi.com Karen Holthouse, CFA+1-212-519-9385karen.holthouse@citi.com Gautam Nanda+1-212-816-9397gautam.nanda@citi.com © 2026 Citigroup Inc. No redistribution without Citigroup’s written permission.Source: Citi Research, Sensor Tower © 2026 Citigroup Inc. No redistribution without Citigroup’s written permission.Source: Citi Research, Sensor Tower © 2026 Citigroup Inc. No redistribution without Citigroup’s written permission.Source: Citi Research, Company Reports © 2026 Citigroup Inc. No redistribution without Citigroup’s written permission.Source: Citi Research, FactSet © 2026 Citigroup Inc. No redistribution without Citigroup’s written permission.Source: Citi Research, FactSet © 2026 Citigroup Inc. No redistribution without Citigroup’s written permission.Source: Citi Research, FactSet © 2026 Citigroup Inc. No redistribution without Citigroup’s written permission.Source: Citi Research, FactSet Cheesecake Factory Inc Company description The Cheesecake Factory (Ticker: CAKE), founded in 1972, is a leader inexperiential dining. CAKE currently owns and operates multiple restaurantconcepts across the full-service and limited service formats throughout theUS and Canada. Internationally, CAKE restaurants operate under licensingagreements. The bakery division operates two facilities that produce qualitycheesecakes and other baked products for CAKE restaurants, internationallicensees, and third-party bakery customers. Investment strategy We rate CAKE Buy. We see consistent comp growth at the core CheesecakeFactory brand and an acceleration in new unit growth providing greatervisibility into ongoing HSD revenue growth, with less labor volatility/inflationoffering a path to ongoing modest margin expansion, which supports greaterfree cash flow growth and a higher multiple for shares. Valuation Our $90 target price reflects a 12x EV/EBITDA multiple on our NTM, 12months from now, EBITDA estimate. The 12x multiple in turn reflects ~0.8xthe S&P, or ~1 stabdard deviation ahead of CAKE's five-yearaverage. Alternatively, this represents a 5.5% NTM, 12 months from now, FCFyield. Risks Risks to the downside to our target price: 1) an unexpected slowdown intraffic at the core Cheesecake Factory brand, which would disproportionatelyimpact profits; 2) signs that new growth concepts (e.g., North Italia, FlowerChild) are no longer resonating with consumers, weighing on returns andputting new store growth at risk; 3) a material slowdown in off-premise sales(~20% of mix); and 4) an unexpected spike