亚太炼油与化工行业：预计韩国炼油化工二季度表现稳健

Expect solid 2Q for Korea refining/chemicalcompanies Price Objective Change 09 July 2026 GRM remains above US$20/bbl; Saudi cuts August OSP2Q26 Asia GRM rose64% QoQ to US$35/bbl after Middle East tensions, with diesel and EquityAsia PacificRefining & Chemicals jet/kero cracks reaching US$61/bbl and US$67/bbl, up 51% and 48% QoQ, respectively.Notably, GRM remains at US$26/bbl in July’26, above the pre-war level of US$11/bbl in4Q25. Saudi Arabia also cut the August OSP for Arab Light crude to a US$1.50/bbldiscount to the regional Oman/Dubai benchmark, down US$11.0/bbl MoM fromUS$19.5/bbl, US$15.5/bbl, and US$9.5/bbl in May, June, and July, respectively, whichshould support earnings in 2H26. BofA commodities team expects crude oil to stabilizeat US$70-80/bbl for most of 2H26, vs. US$94/bbl in 1H26, and remain aroundUS$70/bbl in 2027 (seereport 'Oil gets the memo'). Sun Jung Lee>>Research AnalystMerrill Lynch (Seoul)+82 2 3707 0538sunjung.lee@bofa.com Taekyoung Ha>>Research AnalystMerrill Lynch (Seoul)taekyoung.ha@bofa.com Petchem: 2Q beat but spread narrows; prefer KKPC 2Q26 ethylene-naphtha spread rose 45% QoQ to US$240/MT, mainly driven by a 31%QoQ increase in ethylene prices vs. a 28% QoQ rise in naphtha prices, which wouldsupport solid 2Q for chemical companies. However, the spread fell to US$147/MT inJuly’26, with ethylene and naphtha prices down 31% and 27%, respectively, from 2Q26,remaining below the pre-war level of US$187/MT in 4Q25. We expect NCC names topost weaker earnings in 2H26, reflecting negative lagging impacts from lower productprices and elevated naphtha costs. Among Korean chemical names, we prefer KKPC,given its operating leverage to solid SBR spreads (US$740/MT in July, up 58% fromUS$469/MT in 2Q26), and NB latex spreads (US$784/MT in 2Q26, up 372% QoQ). Abbreviations GRM = gross refining marginOSP = official selling priceNCC = naphtha cracking centerMT = metric tonneNB Latex = nitrile butadiene latexSBR = styrene butadiene rubberUTR = utilization rateKKPC = Kumho Petrochemicallubes = lubricants S-Oil: 2Q likely above consensus on solid GRM/strong lubes We estimate S-Oil to post 2Q OP of W1.0tn (-15% QoQ), coming in above consensus by7%. We estimate the Petroleum division to post OP of W698bn, supported by solid AsiaGRM (spot margin at US$35/bbl, up 64% QoQ). Dubai crude declined US$7/bbl in May-Jun vs. Feb-Mar, but higher OSP (average of US$17.5/bbl in May-Jun vs. US$0.2/bbl inFeb-Mar) should mitigate the QoQ decline in inventory gains (+W525bn in 1Q), in ourview. We also expect the Lubricant division to post OP of W332bn (+99% QoQ) on tightsupply. While we expect S-Oil’s 3Q OP of W320bn to come in below consensus by onnegative lagging impacts (one-month adjusted Asia GRM at US$3/bbl in Jul’26 vs.US$29/bbl in 2Q) and inventory losses from lower crude oil prices and OSP, we expectS-Oil to benefit from solid GRM from 4Q26 onward amid tight supply. KKPC: 2Q likely beat on strong SBR/NB latexspreadsWe estimate KKPC’s 2Q OP to rise 149% QoQ to W148bn, above consensus by 30%, with SBR margin improving to US$469/MT (+62% QoQ) and NB latex margin rising toUS$784/MT (+372% QoQ), despite lower UTR of 65% in 2Q vs 80% in 1Q. Notably, SBRmargin remained solid at US$740/MT in Jul’26, up 58% from 2Q26. While NB latexspread moderated 32% MoM to US$651/MT in June, it remains above 2025 average ofUS$282/MT. We believe tight rubber supply should support 2H earnings. We update ourestimates for refining/chemical coverage, reflecting 2Q forecasts. >> Employed by a non-US affiliate of BofAS and is not registered/qualified as a research analystunder the FINRA rules.Refer to "Other Important Disclosures" for information on certain BofA Securities entities that takeresponsibility for the information herein in particular jurisdictions.BofA Securities does and seeks to do business with issuers covered in its researchreports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict ofinterest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider thisreport as only a single factor in making their investment decision.Refer to important disclosures on page 10 to 14. Analyst Certification on page 8. PriceObjective Basis/Risk on page 7.12992160 Source:Bloomberg, BofA Global Research Exhibit4:Saudi Arabia cut the August OSP for its Arab Light crude, setits OSP for its Arab Light at a discount of US$1.50/bbl to the regionalOman/Dubai benchmark, down by US$11.0/bbl MoM (US$19.5/bbl,US$15.5/bbl, and US$9.5/bbl in May/June/July, respectively)Saudi Arabia OSP trends Exhibit5: Brent crude price has been corrected by42% from end-1Q,to the pre-war levelBrent crude oil price trends Source:Platts, Bloomberg, BofA Global Research Exhibit10:Ethylene and naphtha pricesdeclined by31% and 27% inJul’26 from 2Q26, respectivelyEthylene and naphtha price trends SBR-butadiene spread Source:Platts, Bloomberg, BofA Global Research Exhibit12:SBR margin at US$740/MT in Jul’26, up 58