您的浏览器禁用了JavaScript(一种计算机语言,用以实现您与网页的交互),请解除该禁用,或者联系我们。 [美银证券]:增长动力增强,重申买入,上调目标价 - 发现报告

增长动力增强,重申买入,上调目标价

2026-07-09 美银证券 陈曦
报告封面

Raise PO: Growth drivers gain momentum,reiterate Buy Reiterate Rating:BUY| PO:8,900 JPY| Price:7,309 JPY 09July 2026 RaisePO to ¥8,900 from ¥7,700, reiterate Buy Equity We reiterate our Buy rating, reflecting the growth potential ofJEOL’s core productportfolio. We lift our price objective (PO) to¥8,900 from¥7,700, driven by: (1) a 5-8%upward revision to our FY3/28-30 operating profit estimates following a higher salesestimate for direct-write lithography systems, supported by robust DFB laser demand;(2) an increase in the FY3/28 EV/EBITDA multiple applied to the Industrial Equipmentbusiness in our SOTP valuation from 10x to 11x, reflecting expanding EUV investment;and (3) a reduction in the conglomerate discount from 10% to 5% following thecompletion of the medical equipment business divestiture in May. Threecore products support renewed expansion phase We expect JEOL to re-enter an earnings growth phase, driven by MBMW, direct-writelithography systems, and in-line metrology tools. Supported by increasing EUVinvestment by leading foundries and rising demand for optical transceivers for datacenter applications, we see a high probability of continued growth in lithographyequipment sales. In addition, new products for semiconductor production-line metrologyare gaining traction ahead of the company’s targeted growth acceleration from FY3/28,supporting expectations for further market share gains. Mayako Ouchi>>Research AnalystBofAS Japan+81 3 6225 6434mayako.ouchi@bofa.com 1Q results:Focus on MBMW order resumption Weestimate 1Q FY3/27 operating profit of¥1.7bn (consensus:¥1.3bn), reflecting theseasonally weak 1Q. While we expect MBMW revenue contributions to accelerate from2H FY3/27, backlog is projected to decline to around 10 units after shipment of the 6units planned for this fiscal year. We therefore expect investor focus to shift toward thenext order cycle and will look for management's views on the timing and likelihood oforder resumption. Mikio Hirakawa>>Research AnalystBofAS Japanmikio.hirakawa@bofa.com MBMW: Multi beam mask writerDFB: Distributed feed-backEUV: Extreme ultra-violet >> Employed by a non-US affiliate of BofAS and is not registered/qualified as a research analystunder the FINRA rules.Refer to "Other Important Disclosures" for information on certain BofA Securities entities that takeresponsibility for the information herein in particular jurisdictions.BofA Securities does and seeks to do business with issuers covered in its researchreports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict ofinterest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider thisreport as only a single factor in making their investment decision.Refer to important disclosures on page 10 to 12. Analyst Certification on page 7. PriceObjective Basis/Risk on page 7.12992369 iQprofileSMJEOL (6951) Company Sector Semiconductor Capital Equipment Company Description JEOL's predecessor company, Electron Science Laboratory,was founded in 1947. Since that time, JEOL has engaged inthe development and sale ofanalytical and industrialequipment that contribute to the nanotechnology field,based on electron beam and spectral technologies. JEOL hasa market share above 80% in the core field ofsemiconductor multi-beam mask writers. Investment Rationale The keypillars of our Buy thesis are: (1) growing MBMWdemand driven by increasing leading-edge investment fromthe three major foundries, (2) higher direct-writelithography system sales supported by broader adoption ofoptical transceivers for data center applications, and (3)market share gains in Scientific & Metrology Instrumentsthrough a rising contribution from private-sectorcustomers. Key Metrics Exhibit6:TSMC’s front-end manufacturing roadmap through 2029TSMC introduced bifurcated roadmap for high-end applications (e.g., HPC/AI chipsets) and mainstream applications (e.g., mobile and consumer devices) Leading DFB laser suppliers: Forecast total capex (US$ mn) Exhibit9:Launchingproducts withenhancedthroughput andautomationfeatures forsemiconductormanufacturingJEOL (6951): Scientific & Metrology Instruments segment earnings forecast (¥bn) Price objective basis & risk JEOL (6951 / XJEOF) Our PO is¥8,900, based on the SOTP method using EV/EBITDA on our FY3/28 earningsestimates. In the industrial equipment segment, we use an multiple of 11.0x, 50% discount fromEUV-related names. In the scientific and metrology instruments segment we use amultiple of 9.0x, which as per 2.0pt discount from the average of global competitors,considering production sites, business scale, and technological complexity of products.We also apply a conglomerate discount of 5%. Upside risks are 1) a larger-than-expected earnings contribution from the MBMW-301, anew 2nm multi-beam mask writer, and development progress for MBMW-401/501 tofollow the MBMW-301, 2) progress for EUV lithography systems at <2nm and resultinggrowth in advanced node c