金蝶国际（0268.HK）2026年上半年业绩指引超预期

Kingdee International Software (0268.HK) 1H26 Guidance Beat CITI’S TAKEKingdee issued a positive profit alert for 1H26, signaling a significant turnaround from loss to profit. Total revenue is expected to increase by13–14% to RMB 3.61–3.64bn, largely in line with market consensus fromVisible Alpha (VA). Profit attributable to owners is projected to be RMB40–60mn (vs. loss of RMB 98mn in 1H25). Adjusted profit is expected atRMB 105–125mn (vs. loss of RMB 51mn), beating VA consensus by 34.8–60.5%. This positive shift is largely driven by a robust increase insubscription revenue and AI-native product growth, demonstrating thesuccess of its “AI-first, Subscription-first, Globalization” strategy andimproved operational efficiency. Net cash inflow from operating activitiesalso reversed to RMB 130–150mn from an outflow of RMB 18mn. ReiterateBuy. Price (07 Jul 26 16:10)HK$6.34Target priceHK$13.70Expected share price return116.1%Expected dividend yield0.0%Expected total return116.1%Market CapHK$22,504MUS$2,869M Kyna WongAC+852-2868-7820kyna.wong@citi.comYiming Li, CFA Validates AIOS Momentum.The 1H26 profit alert is consistent with the strategicdirection outlined at Kingdee’s AI-Native Product Launch Event in May, where thecompany officially launched Lingee (灵基), its enterprise AI operating system (AIOS).We view the financial turnaround driven by subscription revenue and AI-efficiencygains as an early validation of the AIOS pivot, ahead of Lingee’s full commercial ramp-up. Lingee as the Growth Engine.At the May launch event, management reaffirmed itsRMB 14bn revenue target by 2030, with the mix structurally upgraded to 50% AIOS(Lingee) and 50% AI+SaaS. Commercially, the overall AI suite carries a revenue targetof RMB 1bn for full-year 2026, with Lingee operating as an incremental revenue lineon top of the original budget, charged via AI credits/tokens consumed by enterpriseclients. Watching the Revenue Ramp.While the 1H profit alert is encouraging, Lingee’spricing was only guided to be released at end-May 2026. We will watch closely forconcrete revenue contributions from Lingee in 2H26 as the key catalyst for further re-rating. Key risks that remain include intensifying competition, potential IT spendingslowdown in China, rising R&D costs, and displacement risk from AI LLMs. Kingdee International Software Valuation Our target price for Kingdee of HK$13.7 is based on a sum-of-the-parts (SOTP) valuation, in which we apply 10x FY26E PE to itstraditional software division, in-line with the average PE of the China software sector, and 7.1x FY26E P/S to its cloud SaaSoperation, which is 10-Year mean. We use 10-year average as a reference for AI-ification given it covered the introductory andgrowth stage of cloudification cycle in 2015-20. The company is positioned to capture the acceleration of enterprises AImonetization. We value the software division on a PE multiple owing to its high earnings visibility and the cloud SaaS operationon PS owing to its robust growth and loss-making status. Risks Key downside risks that could prevent the shares from achieving our target price include: 1) intensifying competition amongenterprise cloud service players; 2) postponed IT spending amid an economic slowdown in China; 3) rising staff and R&D costs;4) displacement from AI LLM. If you are visually impaired and would like to speak to a Citi representative regarding the detailsof the graphics in this document, please call USA 1-888-500-5008 (TTY: 711), from outside theUS +1-210-677-3788 Appendix A-1 ANALYST CERTIFICATION The research analysts primarily responsible for the preparation and content of this research report are either (i) designatedby “AC” in the author block or (ii) listed in bold alongside content which is attributable to that analyst. If multiple ACanalysts are designated in the author block, each analyst is certifying with respect to the entire research report other than(a) content attributable to another AC certifying analyst listed in bold alongside the content and (b) views expressed solelywith respect to a specific issuer which are attributable to another AC certifying analyst identified in the price charts orrating history tables for that issuer shown below. Each of these analysts certify, with respect to the sections of the reportfor which they are responsible: (1) that the views expressed therein accurately reflect their personal views about eachissuer and security referenced and were prepared in an independent manner, including with respect to Citigroup GlobalMarkets Inc. and its affiliates; and (2) no part of the research analyst's compensation was, is, or will be, directly orindirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed by that research analyst in this report. IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES The Firm has made a market in the publicly traded equity securities of Kingdee International Software Group Co Ltd on at leastone occasion since 1 Jan 2025. Analysts’ compensation is det