德意志银行：安川电机订单量大幅增长超预期，2026年业绩指引有上调空间

RatingBuy CompanyYaskawa ElectricReutersBloomberg 13 April 2026Date Forecast Change JapanJapan Machinery Strong orders continuing; Upside to FYguidance; Strong semis; BUY Valuation & Risks Iris Zheng, CFAResearch Analyst Yaskawa reported 4Q FY2/26 (3M ending February 2026) results and hosted ananalyst briefing after market close on 10 April 2026. Yaskawa hosted a secondbriefing after market close today (13 April). Its shares closed up +7% today, The strong order momentum outshined the slightly light profit in FY4Q and led tothe share price outperformance of Yaskawa today. More encouragingly, therobust order trend is continuing into FY1Q thanks to Yaskawa's favourableexposure to semiconductors, data centres and O&G. The conservative FYguidance sets the bar low given the current geopolitical uncertainties, and we seeupside to the guidance given the healthy orders and the FX tailwinds (we Upside to FY26 guidance from robust orders, favourable FX and O&G exposureYaskawa targets FY26sales/ operating profit/ net profitof ¥580bn/ ¥60bn/ ¥47bn, representing+7%/+27%/+33%YoY growth,respectively.We note thatmanagement has had a history of providing overly optimistic guidance; however,since the guidance downgrade at 1Q FY25 results in July 2025, we feel that We see upside to theFY guidancebecause: 1.Theannualised order level for Motion Control(45-50% of group revenue)hit ¥290bn in 2H FY2/26,higher than the guided revenueof ¥280bn for 2.The healthy order momentum for Motion Control is continuing into FY1Q,but management is adopting a cautious approach when providing the FY 3.Managementassumes the Middle East situation will continue, andtherefore hasfactored in the guidancean impact on order growth (from 4.Whilst the Middle East situation creates uncertainties and inflation, we 13 April 2026Machinery note that Yaskawa could benefit from itsinverter sales from the O&G andthe solar end-marketin the US, and elsewhere. O&G associated ordershave grown strongly for two quarters in a row for Yaskawa. 5.Management assumesvery conservative FX ratesat USD/JPY of 145 (vslatest at 160), EUR/JPY of 170 (vs latest at 187) and CNY/JPY of 20.5 (vslatest at 23). We calculate thatusing the latest FX rates could add ¥33bn/~6% to the FY sales guidance and ¥7bn/ ~12% to the operating profit Strong orders: FY4Q driven by semiconductor as well as data centre, HVAC andO&G demand; Robust momentum continuing in FY1QInFY4Q,order intake grew strongly by +20%YoY(DBe+17% YoY ex-FX) to ¥152.4bn, continuing the solid trend for two quarters in a row and hitting the highest level in the past 17 quarters. The book-to-bill ratio was 1.02x. By division,Motion Control delivered exceptional growth of +47% YoY. UnlikeFY3Q where the growth was mainly driven by Drives (+62%), both Servo (+44%YoY) and Drives (+50% YoY) achieved robust growth in FY4Q. Servo growth waslifted by thesemiconductor recovery globally, led by the US, and followed bySouth Korea and Taiwan, and then Japan. Management believes that Yaskawa isbenefiting from the the global shortage of memory chips and the resultantproduction expansion of the two major South Korean manufacturers. Drives andInverters were driven bydemand from data centres, HVAC, and Oil & Gas— By region,Americas(+48% YoY)delivered the highest growth in FY4Q.This wasfollowed byJapan(+22%),Other Asia(+10%), andChina(+6%), whilstEurope(- IntoFY1Q, management is witnessingcontinued positive momentum for MotionControl. On a group level, management expects the orders to be flattish or slightlyhigher QoQ in FY1Q, indicatinganother quarter of strong YoY growth of 20% and FY4Q profit light of consensus but broadly inline with company guidance; Somerestructuring costs brought forward In4Q FY2/26, Yaskawa deliveredsales/ operating profit/net profitof ¥147bn/¥14bn/ ¥9.7bn, representing a YoY growth of +2%/ -11%/ -16%, respectively.Compared with Bloomberg consensus, sales were 5% ahead, butoperating profit/ ForFY2/26, Yaskawa recorded sales/ operating profit/net profitof ¥542bn/ ¥47bn/¥35bn,broadly inline with the company's profit guidanceof ¥48bn/ ¥37bn foroperating profit/ net profit, with sales ahead of company's guidance of ¥525bn. By division, sales of both Motion Control and Robotics came ahead of expectation,but operating profit missed. System Engineering and Other businesses, in contrast, nMotion control:therestructuring project in Chinacontinued in the quarteras Yaskawa is consolidating operations and slightly scaling back the 13 April 2026Machinery which was pulled forward from next quarter as the negotiation went well. nRobotics:Yaskawa is implementingrestructuring measures in Europe.Some measures planned for next year got pulled forward to FY4Q.Additionally, customer mix was also unfavourable — the low-margin large-scale projects totalled ¥20bn in FY25 with no order backlog left. However,as the large-scale projects subside in FY26E, management expect to focusmore on standalone robot sales and a