大陆集团2026年第一季度：第一季度业绩超预期并维持全年指引。中东潜在影响或达中低三位数百万欧元

Alice Buckley+44 20 7676 6739alice.buckley@bernsteinsg.com Stephen Reitman+44 20 7762 5535stephen.reitman@bernsteinsg.com Price Target Continental Q1 2026: Q1 beat and FY guidance maintained.Potential low-mid triple digit million Middle East impact Continental reported Q1 results this morning. There is a conference call at 12:30pm CEST (11:30am UK time). Overall take.A good quarter and maintained outlook. Similarly to Michelin, Continental expects to see a potential gross impact in thehundreds of millions to raw materials & other costs from the situation in the Middle East, but positively is “confident that we can offsetthe vast majority of the negative impacts as we have proven in the past”. Consensus is likely little changed and the print should be takenwell. The quarter.Continental reported revenue of €4,396mn, in line with consensus, and adjusted EBIT of €522, a 4.5% beat toconsensus. The beat was driven by stronger than expected margins in both Tyres and ContiTech. Adjusted free cash flow of €35mnwas below our expectation for €41mn, driven primarily by a larger working capital outflow. •Tyres.Tyres volume of -4.3% was slightly below our expectation for -4% and underperformed Michelin (+1.3% passenger, -1.4%group), despite Continental’s higher exposure to Europe where passenger tyre markets have been stronger. Tyres price/mix of +4%was a strong performance, accelerating sequentially from +3.4% at Q4, and outperforming Michelin (+1.1%). Tyres margin beatconsensus, benefitting from growth in replacement, success in >18” tyres, lower raw mat costs and cost focus. •ContiTech.ContiTech organic growth came in slightly below our expectations, weighed by OESL. ContiTech EBIT margin was asignificant beat to consensus, and benefitted from a focus on high margin products, a rebound in the distribution business, lowerraw mat costs and cost control. This strength is positive in the context of the upcoming sale of the business. Excluding OESL, theContiTech margin would have been 8.7%. •Guide.Continental confirms its guide despite the conflict in the Middle East. We expected this given the wide guidance range.Continental expects a gross impact from the conflict in a low-to-mid triple-digit million euro range for Tyres, mainly driven by rawmat, expected to materialize from Q2 onwards which is in line with Michelin's expectation for €400m. Continental is confident it canoffset the majority of negative impacts as it has proven in the past. ContiTech sale.The presentation says the ContiTech sale is “on track” but doesn’t give any further details. EXPECTED CHANGE TO CONSENSUS EARNINGS BERNSTEIN TICKER TABLE I. REQUIRED DISCLOSURES References to "Bernstein" or the “Firm” in these disclosures relate to the following entities: Bernstein Institutional Services LLC(April 1, 2024 onwards), Sanford C. Bernstein & Co., LLC (pre April 1, 2024), Bernstein Autonomous LLP, BSG France S.A. (April 1,2024 onwards), Sanford C. Bernstein (Hong Kong) Limited盛博香港有限公司,Sanford C. Bernstein (Canada) Limited, SanfordC. Bernstein (India) Private Limited (SEBI registration no. INH000006378), Sanford C. Bernstein (Singapore) Private Limited,Sanford C. Bernstein Japan KK(サンフォード・C・バーンスタイン株式会社)and analysts employed by Société GénéraleAfrica Technologies & Services to produce Bernstein research under a Global Services Agreement in place between Bernsteinand Société Générale. Bernstein is part of a joint venture between Société Générale (SG) and AllianceBernstein, L.P. (AB). Unless specifically notedotherwise, for purposes of these disclosures, references to Bernstein’s “affiliates” relate to both SG and AB and their respectiveaffiliates. VALUATION METHODOLOGY Michelin We value Michelin on 7.8x EV/EBIT, in line with the multiple the market has been willing to pay over the long-term. Together withour NTM+1 EBIT forecast of €3,850mn gives our €38 target price. Continental AG We value Continental on a SOTP. For the RemainCo, we put the Tyre business on 8.1x EV/EBIT, at a premium to Michelin basedon higher margin expectations. We value the ContiTech business at 6.5x EV/EBIT and the Central/HQ at the average RemainComultiple. Together, these give our €66 target price. RISKS Michelin Downside risks to our price target include 1) New success from low-cost Chinese competition investing in R&D/European andAmerican capacity; 2) Today’s temporary slowdown in EV adoption lasts longer than expected; 3) Michelin makes value-destructiveM&A investments with the cash on hand Continental AG Upside risks to our price target include 1) The planned sale of the ContiTech unit attracts higher multiples than embedded SOTPscontain today; 2) Tyre margins return to industry leading levels and allow substantial increase in shareholder cash returns. Downside risks to our target price include 1) Continental delevers slower than expected, driven by a lower ContiTech sales priceor lower tyre earnings, which delays cash returns; 2) Continental does not deliver