沃尔沃汽车2026年第一季度：EBIT显著超出市场共识，FCF略低于预期，全年指引维持

+442076768965harry.martin@bernsteinsg.com +4420 76766739alice.buckley@bernsteinsg.cor +442077625535stephen.reitman@bernsteinsg.comSpecialist Sales Volvo Cars Q1 2026: Good beat to consensus EBIT, FCF slightlybelow, FY guidance maintained Overalltake.This was a solidquarterfinanciallygiven theglobal backdrop.Sales andmargins came in ahead of consensus, whichwasmost likelydrivenbyproduction and wholesalevolumes of highermarginICEvehicles (XC60,XC9O)which werepre-producedahead of the Torslanda plantswitchingto EX60production whichhas nowstarted.While underlying retail sales were-11%YoY,wholesales were-3%andproduction was+1%-and productionwas25kunitsaboveretail salesof 153k in thequarter.AlsopositivelyFYguidancewasmaintained, inspiteofthechangingmacroeconomiclandscape,andthecompanyalsosaidQ2profitability"will beaffectedbycontinuedheadwindsandtheEx6O productionstartandramp-up"butnotquantified. Thequarter.Volvoreportedrevenue of SEk72.6bn, in linewith consensus,grossmarginof 18.5%,190bpsabove consensus,andEBITexcl.itemsaffectingcomparabilityofSEK1.6bn,asignificant(75%)beattoconsensus.Revenuebenefittedfromwholesalesoutpacing retails, whileprice/mix (where Volvo describes“heavy competition")and FX continuedto weigh on sales.Retail saleswere down YoY in all regions with the biggest declines in the US (-32%) and China (-18%). In the US, Volvo describes a tougher thanexpectedmarket, including intensifiedcompetition insegmentswithdomesticproduction.Chinais alsodescribedasverycompetitivewith transaction prices pressured. Europe is more resilient, but pricing pressure remains. EBIT benefitted from production andwholesaleofhighermargincarsandthecostandcashactionplan (whichreducedindirectspendbySEK1.4bn inQ1).Volvo'sfreecash outflowof SEK10.Obnwasslightlybelowconsensus (9.6bn outflow).Comparedtoourmodel,Volvosawa smallerworkingcapitaloutflow.Volvo's expectation tocomeback tovolumegrowthYoY in2026 aswellastopostFCF"clearlybetter"than2025isunchangedfromtheFYresults,butVolvodoesflagthatQ2profitabilitywillbeaffectedbyheadwindsintheEX6Oproductionramp/higherD&Aandalsoflags continuedmacropressurefromrawmaterialandfreight costs.Followinggood demandfortheEX6o,Volvoplanstoincreaseproductionvolumefor2026. EXPECTEDCHANGETOCONSENSUSEARNINGS Referencesto"Bernstein"orthe"Firm”inthese disclosures relateto thefollowingentities:BernsteinInstitutionalServices LLC (April 1, 2024 onwards), Sanford C. Bernstein & Co., LLC (pre April 1, 2024), Bernstein Autonomous LLP, BSG France S.A. (April 1,2024onwards),SanfordC.Bernstein(HongKong)Limited盛博香港有限公司，SanfordC.Bernstein(Canada)Limited,SanfordAfrica Technologies &Services to produce Bernstein research under a Global Services Agreement in place between Bernsteinand SocieteGenerale. otherwise, for purposes of these disclosures,references to Bernstein's“affiliates"”relate to both SG and AB and their respectiveaffiliates. peers). We discount this back using a WACC of 8% based on the 3.5% YTM where Volvo's bonds are trading today,and to takeinto account the risk premium. This gives our 17 SEK target price. RISKS VolvoCarAB Upside risks include: another short squeeze (c.21% of thefloat is shorted), any relaxation of tariffs (including US-China, EU-China,US-EU),betterthanexpected resultsfromthe costand cashactionplan. RATINGSDEFINITIONS,BENCHMARKSANDDISTRIBUTION EQUITYRATINGSDEFINITIONS Bernsteinbrand stocks listed on the U.S.and Canadian exchanges, versus the Bloomberg Europe Developed Markets Large and Mid Cap PriceReturn Index EUR (EDME) for stocks listed on the European exchanges and emerging markets exchanges outside of the AsiaPacific region, versus the Bloomberg Japan Large and Mid Cap Price Return Index USD (JPL)for stocks listed on the Japanese(ex-Japan)exchanges-unless otherwise specified. The Bernstein brand has three categories of ratings: :Outperform: Stock will outpacethe market index bymore than 15pp : Market-Perform: Stock will perform in line with the market index to within +/-15 pp .Underperform:Stock willtrail theperformanceof themarket indexbymore than15pp Not Rated: A rating assigned when the stock cannot be accurately valued, or the performance of the company accuratelypredicted,at the present time.The covering analyst may continue to publish research reports on the company to update investorson events and developments. Not Covered (NC)denotes companies thatarenotundercoverage. Autonomousbrand-commonstocks TheAutonomousbrandratescommonstocksas indicated below.AsourbenchmarksweusetheBloombergEurope5ooBanks And Financial Services Index (BEBANKS) and Bloomberg Europe Dev Mkt Financials Large and Mid Cap Price Ret Index EUR(EDMFl)indexfordevelopedEuropeanbanksandPayments,theBloombergEurope5OoOInsuranceIndex(BEINSUR)forEuropeanSelect Industry (SPSIINS) for US Non-Life Insurers coverage,and the Bloomberg Emerging Markets Financials Large, Mid andSmall Cap Price Return Index (EMLSF)for emerging market banks and insurers and Payments. Ratings are stated relative to