家得宝2025年第一季度业绩快评：同店销售转负但维持全年指引，聚焦关税影响

5,963.60377,076437,979 RatingMarket-PerformPrice TargetHDAdjusted EPSF24AHD (USD)15.24Source: Bloomberg, Bernstein estimates and analysis.guide maintained; all eyes on tariff impactsHome Depot reported Q1 2025 earnings this morning with comp sales turning negative butmaintained FY25 guidance. The company will host its earnings call at 9am ET.HD saw comp sales turning negative (-0.3%) in Q1on the back of inconsistent weatherand continued weakness in big ticket projects. FX was also a 70bps headwind to comp salesgrowth. Adj. EBIT margin of 13.2% came in 20bps below consensus and adj. EPS of $3.56was a 3c miss.HD maintained FY25 guidance, which we previously viewed as conservative as HD onlybaked in the organic sales growth of SRS in 2H, without accounting for the sales lift frombolt on acquisitions that SRS continues to make. However, we will look for additional coloron the conference call about tariff and pricing assumptions baked into the guide. Given HD’s~50% overall import exposure, we believe that the company will likely need to pass on tariff-related price increases, after working with suppliers to reduce costs and absorbing somecost increases itself.The company continues to expect comp sales growth of 1.0% (vs. consensus of 1.2%),net sales growth of 2.8% (vs. consensus of 2.9%), gross margin of 33.4% (vs. consensus33.4%), adj. EBIT margin to be 13.4% (vs. consensus 13.4%) and adj. EPS of $14.94 (vs.consensus of $15.00).Given the recent de-escalation in tariff tensions,we see more moderate tariff risks butcontinue to expect muted home improvement demandwith mortgage rates elevatedat close to 7% and consumer spending power constrained. While HD should benefit fromincorporating SRS into comp in 2H25, the elasticity impact from tariff-led price increasescould weigh on traffic. Given these near term uncertainties and a lack of clear catalysts, wedon’t expect HD’s comp sales growth to return to the 3%+ range until FY27.See the Disclosure Appendix of this report for required disclosures, analyst certifications and otherimportant information. Alternatively, visit our Global Research Disclosure Website.First Published: 20 May 2025 10:46 UTC Completion Date: 20 May 2025 10:46 UTC F25EF26E14.5114.97FinancialsF24AF25EF26ECAGRReported EPS14.9114.1114.58(1.1)%Revenues (M)159,514162,981166,6142.2%Gross Profit (M)52,03152,847--Close DateSPXFYEDiv YieldEV (USD) (M)PerformanceAbsolute (%)SPX (%)Relative (%)$460$440$420$400$380$360$340$32005/24 Q1 DETAILSAfter one quarter of being positive, HD once again reported negative comp.Net sales grew +9.4% YoY to $39.9B (+1.5%above consensus) in the quarter. Comp sales decreased by -0.3% YoY (vs. consensus of -0.2%) while comp sales in the US grewby +0.2%. FX was a -70bps headwind to comp sales. While transactions grew +2.1%, ticket growth was flat (ex-SRS and HDSupply). These are weaker than the past quarter, with hurricane tailwinds fading.Gross margin of 33.8% was -40bps YoY and in line with consensus. Adjusted EBIT margin of 13.2% was -90bps YoY and-20bps below consensus. Adj. EPS of $3.56 was 3c below consensus $3.59. The company again adjusted for acquired assetamortization (~11c net impact) this quarter.EXHIBIT 1:Home Depot 1Q25 Results vs ConsensusIncome StatementNet salesNet sales growthComp sales growthCOGSGross profitGross profit marginTotal OpexOpex %Operating IncomeOperating MarginAdjusted Operating IncomeAdjusted Operating MarginIncome before TaxesTaxesTax RateNet IncomeNet Income MarginAdjusted diluted EPSDiluted SharesNumber of StoresSource: Company disclosure, Bloomberg, Bernstein estimates and analysisEXHIBIT 2:FY25 Guidance TableSales GrowthComp Sales GrowthGross MarginAdj. EBIT MarginNet Interest Expense ($bn)Effective Tax RateAdj. EPS GrowthCapex % of salesNew StoresSource: Company disclosure, Bloomberg, Bernstein estimates and analysisUS RETAILING BROADLINES & HARDLINES Q1 24Q4 24Q1 25YoY ∆Q1 25E∆ vs.BERNeQ1 25E∆ vs. Cons36,41839,70439,8569.4%39,3421.3%39,2661.5%-2.3%14.1%9.4%+1,170bps8.0%+140bps7.8%+160bps-2.8%0.8%-0.3%+250bps-0.5%+20bps-0.2%-10bps23,98526,67026,39710.1%26,0051.5%26,0891.2%12,43313,03413,4598.3%13,3370.9%13,2791.4%34.1%32.8%33.8%-40bps33.9%-10bps33.8%+0bps7,3548,5398,32613.2%7,9245.1%8,1092.7%20.2%21.5%20.9%+70bps20.1%+70bps20.7%+20bps5,0794,4955,1331.1%5,413-5.2%5,169-0.7%13.9%11.3%12.9%-110bps13.8%-90bps13.2%-30bps5,1314,6405,2722.7%5,543-4.9%5,284-0.2%14.1%11.7%13.2%-90bps14.1%-90bps13.5%-20bps4,6513,8874,542-2.3%4,825-5.9%4,677-2.9%1,0518901,1095.5%1,182-6.2%1,132-2.0%22.6%22.9%24.4%+180bps24.5%-10bps24.2%+20bps3,6002,9973,433-4.6%3,643-5.8%3,554-3.4%9.9%7.5%8.6%-130bps9.3%-60bps9.1%-40bps3.67$3.13$3.56$-3.0%3.76$-5.4%3.59$-0.8%9929949940.2%9940.0%9940.0%2,3372,3472,3500.6%2,3490.0%2,3500.0%ResultsBERNeConsensus - BBG4Q241Q25(Current Guide)Consensus∆ vs Midpointof GuideBernE∆ vs Midpointof Guide∆ vs Cons2.8%2.8%2.9%+10bps2.2%-60bps-70bps1.0%1.0%1.2%+20bps0.6%-40bps-60bps33.4%33.4%33.4%+0bps33.2%-20bps-20bps13.4%13.4%13.4%+0bps13.1%-