美元树公司2025年第一季度-同店销售强劲，但预计关税将导致第二季度收益波动

Jeremy Miles+1 917 344 8370jeremy.miles@bernsteinsg.com RatingMarket-Perform Hazel Wang+1 917 344 8346hazel.wang@bernsteinsg.com Price Target DLTR Quick Take: DLTR 1Q25 - Strong comp sales but tariffs expected todrive earnings volatility in Q2 DLTR reported Q1 earnings this morning with a Q1 top line beat while reiterating FY25 salesguidance and expecting tariff-driven volatility in earnings in Q2. Q1 results came in above sellside expectations on the top line, with a 5.4% comp(above the high end of DLTR’s guidance of 3-5% and above consensus of 3.7%). Marginswere broadly in line with consensus while adj. EPS of $1.26 was a 6c beat. For FY25, DLTR set a high bar in Q4 (with 3-5% comp expectation) and largelymaintained guidance, which we view as prudent. DLTR reiterated FY25 sales guidance,continuing to expect net sales of $18.5B-$19.1B (vs. consensus of $18.9B) and compsales growth of 3-5% (vs. consensus of 3.8%). The company raised its adj. EPS guidancefrom $5.00-5.50 to $5.15-5.65 (vs. consensus of $5.28) to reflect the impact of YTD sharerepurchases, supported by the Family Dollar divestment. There could be additional upside tothe EPS guidance as we expect DLTR to repurchase more shares with its cash on hand. The guidance reflects expectations of current tariff levels remaining in place forthe rest of the year. This is in line with most retailers’ approach to guidance so far. Incomparison, Dollar General’s assumption about a potential reversal of Chinese tariffs back to54% after the 90-day pause stands out as conservative. Notably, while DLTR expects to mitigate most tariff impacts, it expects earningsvolatility in Q2, which could pressure adj. EPS to be down as much as 45%-50% in Q2 to$0.34-0.37 (vs. consensus of $0.66). This is despite the company expecting Q2 comp salesgrowth to come in at the higher end of the 3-5% range. Overall, we see the Family Dollar divestment and multi-price rollout as near- to medium-termpositives but remain on the sidelines as deglobalization (beyond one-off tariff impacts) couldpose more structural challenges to DLTR’s business model over time. Dollar Tree comp sales grew by +5.4% (vs. consensus of +3.7%), driven by a +2.5% increase in traffic and a +2.8% increasein ticket. The Dollar Tree banner has now rolled out multi-price to 3,500 stores (from 2,900). Net Sales grew 11.3% (vs. 8.7%consensus) to ~$4.6B. There are now 9,016 Dollar Tree stores in operation, after a net 130 net openings in the quarter, and 5were converted from FDO banner. Gross margin increased +20bps to 35.6% (in line with consensus), driven by lower freight, improved mark-on and loweroccupancy costs due to sales leverage, partially offset by increased distribution, shrink, and markdown costs. Adj. operating income margin decreased -80bps to 8.4% (vs. consensus 8.3%), as SG&A rate increased by 100bps dueto higher depreciation from store investments, higher staff payroll, liability claims and utilities, offset by lower incentivecompensation, and lower temporary labor related to multi-price store conversions. Adj. diluted EPS of $1.26 was a 6c beat, helped by $500M share repurchase YTD, $436.8M of which was completed in Q1(5.9M shares). INVESTMENT IMPLICATIONS We rate DLTR Market-Perform with a TP of $82. BERNSTEIN TICKER TABLE I. REQUIRED DISCLOSURES References to "Bernstein" or the “Firm” in these disclosures relate to the following entities: Bernstein Institutional Services LLC(April 1, 2024 onwards), Sanford C. Bernstein & Co., LLC (pre April 1, 2024), Bernstein Autonomous LLP, BSG France S.A. (April 1,2024 onwards), Sanford C. Bernstein (Hong Kong) Limited盛博香港有限公司,Sanford C. Bernstein (Canada) Limited, SanfordC. Bernstein (India) Private Limited (SEBI registration no. INH000006378), Sanford C. Bernstein (Singapore) Private Limited andSanford C. Bernstein Japan KK(サンフォード・C・バーンスタイン株式会社). On April 1, 2024, Société Générale (SG) and AllianceBernstein, L.P. (AB) completed a transaction that created a new joint venturein which their respective cash equities and research businesses operate in a new business combination. Although their respectiveownership percentages in the joint venture differ between North America and the rest of the world, the creation, production andpublication of research is handled collaboratively on a global basis across the two research brands, “Bernstein” and “Autonomous”.Unless specifically noted otherwise, for purposes of these disclosures, references to Bernstein’s “affiliates” relate to both SG andAB and their respective affiliates. VALUATION METHODOLOGY Dollar Tree Inc We set a $82 target price using a P/E multiple of 13.5x against our forward Q5-Q8 EPS estimate of $6.07. RISKS Dollar Tree Inc Our DLTR price target is subject to several macroeconomic and company-specific risks. Upside risks include: •Dollar Tree could sell Family Dollar for a higher price than expected, resulting in more EPS accretion for the remaining DollarTree business.•Dollar Tree’