美森轮船公司（MATX）：第一季度业绩超预期；预计第二季度业绩疲软，2025年因关税导致增长放缓存在不确定性

1Q Beat; Guides to Weaker 2Q and Uncertain2025 on Tariff-Induced Slowdown Matson's 1Q results beat on higher freight rates and steady year-over-yearvolumes. It repurchased 0.5 million shares for $67 million (over 90% of its netincome) as capex remains well-funded and debt levels low. The tariff-inducedslowdown is ahead as its China volumes were down 30% in April versus theyear-ago period. However, Matson's "catchment basin" strategy will help offsetwith added services in Vietnam. We reiterate our Buy rating and $125 target. Slight 1Q beat on higher rates and flat volumes:Matson reported EPS of $2.18, slightly ahead ofconsensus of $2.13 and beating our estimate of $2.03. Similarly, EBITDA of $132 million beat bothconsensus and our forecast of $129 million and $120 million, respectively. Total volumes of 91,500FEUs were stable compared to 1Q24 (excluding autos) of 90,800 FEUs, with its China volumesdown just 400 FEUs. Ocean operating income increased to $73.6 million, up from $27.6 million in1Q24, as higher freight rates towards the end of 2024 and beginning of 2025 offset the declinethrough February and March. We estimate Matson captured an operating spread of $800/FEU, aYoY improvement of about ~$500/FEU. Tariff-driven uncertainty ahead, Vietnam to partially offset China weakness:Matson began anew direct service in 1Q, connecting Ho Chi Minh to Shanghai for trans-loading cargo onto its CLXand MAX services. This "catchment basin" strategy attempts to maintain Matson's footprint asthe fastest Transpacific service, while diversifying from a potentially elongated trade slowdownbetween the US and China. Matson disclosed that its China volumes (roughly 36% of 2024 totalvolumes) were down 30% YoY in April, though an improvement in volumes was noticeable morerecently. Management noted that large customers previously suspending China shipments havebegun to direct higher cargo flows again, though it does not expect a full normalization until tariffshave been more permanently negotiated. Matson has carried cargo recently from other Asianorigins including its new Vietnam service, as well as Cambodia, Thailand, Indonesia, Malaysia, Indiaand the Philippines. 2Q likely to see lower consensus revisions:Matson guided 2Q25 operating income "meaningfullylower" than the $124.6 million achieved in 2Q24. Consensus is currently at $124.3 million, and weare lowering our estimate from $108.0 million to $99.4 million. Our 2Q25 EPS estimate is lowered to$2.44 from $2.67 (consensus is $3.13). While Matson's update paints a cloudy picture, we believethere is upside risk to market expectations given "regular way" China-US volumes appear to begradually returning while peak season is on approach this summer. Reiterate Buy and $125 target: Of the remaining ~$750 million of newbuilding capex, $685 millionis covered by its CCF. Despite the uncertainty ahead, Matson continues to generate decent cashflow and reiterated that share buybacks are a core part of its capital allocation strategy. We reiterateour Buy rating and $125 target. Omar Nokta * | Equity Analyst1 (212) 778-8405 | onokta@jefferies.comJaeyoung McGarry * | Equity Associate(212) 778-8358 | jmcgarry@jefferies.comEmily Harkins * | Equity Associate+1 (212) 778-8584 | eharkins@jefferies.com The Long View: Matson, Inc. Investment Thesis / Where We Differ We believe the container fleet balance has tightened considerably due toongoing re-routing of ships away from the Red Sea, and freight rates are likelyto be supported at above breakeven levels in the coming months. However,a cease-fire in Gaza sets the stage for an eventual return of normal transitsthrough the Red Sea which would lead to an influx of vessel capacity due toshorter voyage hauls. Accordingly, we see downside risks to freight rates fromthe extraordinary figures seen in 2024. Upside Scenario,$150, +36% Downside Scenario,$70, -36% Base Case,$125, +14% •A continued divergence of the majority of RedSea container shipping traffic around the Capeof Good Hope through the first half of 2025•A gradual return of vessel capacity to the RedSea during the second half of 2025•Freight rates to remain above breakevenlevels throughout the first half of 2025 beforemoderatingcloser to operating cost levelsduring the second half of 2025•2025 EBITDA amounts to $590 million•Valuation of $125 using 6.0x 2025 EV/EBITDA,consistent with average multiple over past 5years •Liners re-route ships away from Red Seathroughout 2025•Freight rates in 2025 average in-line with 2024averages•2025 EBITDA potential jumps to $715 million•Valuation of $150 using 6.0x 2025 upside EV/EBITDA, consistent with average multiple overpast 5 years •Liners return ships to Red Sea in near-term•Freight rates fall to below operating breakeven•2025 EBITDA falls to $415 million•Valuation of $70 using 7.0x 2025 EV/EBITDA,consistent with average multiple over past 5years Sustainability Matters Catalysts Top Material Issue(s): 1) Safety in the work environment:It