2026-27年中期展望：AI支撑全球经济

Content Page 3-4Executive Summary Page 5-7AI is propping up the world economy Page 8-9Peak inflation should be behind us Page 12-14Developed markets: Energy shock manageable Page 15-16Emerging markets: The Middle East takes a hit Page 17-18Corporates : Resilience on borrowed time Page 19-26Capital markets: Cautiously optimistic SummaryExecutive •Yellow card only: As the Middle East conflict de-escalates – despite temporary flare-ups – we expect only a mild slowdown in global growth in 2026 to +2.5%, followedby a rebound to +2.9% in 2027, broadly in line with our previous baseline outlook.AI is strongly propping up the global economy, offsetting the drag from the energyshock and the trade war.The energy shock is still working through balance sheets,with consumer purchasing power recovering only in Q4 2026 and firms‘ profitability stillexposed. The US is set to grow at +2.1% in 2026 supported by energy exports, a savingsrate at its lowest since 2008, AI investment (a third of growth) and fiscal support (7.3%deficit). The Eurozone (ex-Ireland) will grow by just +0.9% in 2026 but rebound to +1.2%in 2027, held back by higher energy dependence, minimal AI offset and subdued growthin Germany as bold reforms are needed on top of the fiscal stimulus. China will stayresilient at +4.7%, led by exports and high-tech manufacturing, but faces headwindsfrom weak domestic demand and US tariffs. Global trade of goods will avoid arecession, growing by +2.9% in volume terms in 2026 and +2.4% in 2027 as the US tradewar reloads with Section 301 following the expiry of Section 122 from 24 July, raising theUS effective tariff rate from 8% to 13%. Ludovic SubranChief Investment Officer& Chief Economistludovic.subran@allianz.com Jordi Basco CarreraHead of Private Marketsjordi.basco_carrera@allianz.com Julia BelousovaSenior Investment Strategistjulia.belousova@allianz.com Ana BoataHead of Economic Researchana.boata@allianz-trade.com Nils BradkeSenior Investment Strategistnils.bradke@allianz.com Maxime Darmet CucchiariniSenior Economist for UK, US & Francemaxime.darmet@allianz-trade.com Lluis Dalmau TaulesEconomist for Africa & Middle Eastlluis.dalmau@allianz-trade.com •Has inflation been knocked out? The peak should already be behind us.With oilflows normalizing and crude prices even falling back below pre-war levels, the energyshock should prove short-lived, limiting second-round effects on broader inflation andavoiding a repeat of the 2022 inflation surge. We still expect some volatility duringUS-Iran negotiations triggering temporary oil price spikes but overall we see themdropping to USD75/bbl and USD67/bbl by the end of 2026 and 2027. Gas prices are stillhigher compared to pre-war levels, but with EUR41/MWh expected at the end of 2026and EUR32/MWh in 2027 they remain in the trading range of the past three years. Thissuggests a far more muted inflationary impact than in 2022, when prices surged by over500% to above EUR300/MWh. Headline inflation should therefore reach central banktargets in 2027 in major economies. We expect the ECB to stay on hold at 2.25% (aroundneutral) after having already delivered one insurance hike in June, while the Fed willraise policy rates at least once this year to 4.0% amid persistent inflation, driven bystrong AI-related investment demand, before a normalization back to 3.5% in H2 2027. Guillaume DejeanSenior Sector Advisorguillaume.dejean@allianz-trade.com Bjoern GriesbachHead of Macroeconomic and CapitalMarkets Researchbjoern.griesbach@allianz.com America HernandezSenior Investment Strategistamerica.hernandez@allianz.com Bernhard HirschHead of Rates and Emerging Marketsbernhard.hirsch@allianz.com Alexander HirtHead of Corporate Researchalexander.hirt@allianz.com Simon KrauseEconomistsimon.krause@allianz-trade.com •The goalposts are shifting for corporates: Earnings held up in Q1 2026 but thedelayed impact will hurt down the line.Most European sectors posted positive EPSgrowth in Q1, while US earnings were buoyed by AI-driven tech. But a profitabilitysqueeze might be building: Turnover growth was revised down for 12 out of 16 sectors,led by pharma (-2.0pps to 0%), utilities (−1.6pps), and motor vehicles (−1.3pps). Onlyelectronics (+1.7pps to 11%), information & communication services (+0.7pps) and food& beverages (+0.4pp) bucked the trend. The auto sector remains most exposed viaelevated net leverage meeting higher rates. Against this backdrop, we expect globalinsolvencies to increase by +4% in 2026 before plateauing in 2027. Patrick KrizanSenior Investment Strategistpatrick.krizan@allianz-trade.com Ano KuhanathanHead of Corporate Researchano.kuhanathan@allianz-trade.com Maria LatorreSector Advisor, B2Bmaria.latorre@allianz-trade.com Maxime LemerleLead Advisor, Insolvency Researchmaxime.lemerle@allianz-trade.com •Capital markets are playing the advantage, largely looking through near-term risks.US rates should gradually decline to 4.35% by the end of 2026 and 4.1% in 2