2026-27年中期展望：AI助力增长，增速放缓至2.5%
Half-Time Outlook2026-27:AI HoldstheScore,GrowthSlows to +2.5% Allianz ResearchEnd of Q2 2026 updated economic andcapital markets outlook 8July 2026 Half-Time Outlook 2026-27:AI Holds theScore,Growth Slows to +2.5% (1/2) 1Yellowcardonly:AstheMiddleEastconflictde-escalates–despitetemporaryflare-ups–weexpectonlyamildslowdowninglobalgrowthin2026to+2.5%,followedbyareboundto+2.9%in2027,broadlyinlinewithourpreviousbaselineoutlook.AIisstronglyproppinguptheglobaleconomy,offsettingthedragfromtheenergyshockandthetradewar.Theenergyshockisstillworkingthroughbalancesheets,withconsumerpurchasingpowerrecoveringonlyinQ42026andfirms'profitabilitystillexposed.TheUSissettogrowat+2.1%in2026supportedbyenergyexports,asavingsrateatitslowestsince2008,AIinvestment(athirdofgrowth)andfiscalsupport(7.3%deficit).TheEurozone(ex-Ireland)willgrowbyjust+0.9%in2026butreboundto+1.2%in2027,heldbackbyhigherenergydependence,minimalAIoffsetandsubduedgrowthinGermanyasboldreformsareneededontopofthefiscalstimulus.Chinawillstayresilientat+4.7%,ledbyexportsandhigh-techmanufacturing,butfacesheadwindsfromweakdomesticdemandandUStariffs.Globaltradeofgoodswillavoidarecession,growingby+2.9%involumetermsin2026and+2.4%in2027astheUStradewarreloadswithSection301followingtheexpiryofSection122from24July,raisingtheUSeffectivetariffratefrom8%to13%. 2Hasinflationbeenknockedout?Thepeakshouldalreadybebehindus.Withoilflowsnormalizingandcrudepricesevenfallingbackbelowpre-warlevels,theenergyshockshouldproveshort-lived,limitingsecond-roundeffectsonbroaderinflationandavoidingarepeatofthe2022inflationsurge.WestillexpectsomevolatilityduringUS-IrannegotiationstriggeringtemporaryoilpricespikesbutoverallweseethemdroppingtoUSD75/bblandUSD67/bblbytheendof2026and2027.Gaspricesarestillhighercomparedtopre-warlevels,butwithEUR41/MWhexpectedattheendof2026andEUR32/MWhin2027theyremaininthetradingrangeofthepastthreeyears.Thissuggestsafarmoremutedinflationaryimpactthanin2022,whenpricessurgedbyover500%toaboveEUR300/MWh.Headlineinflationshouldthereforereachcentralbanktargetsin2027inmajoreconomies.WeexpecttheECBtostayonholdat2.25%(aroundneutral)afterhavingalreadydeliveredoneinsurancehikeinJune,whiletheFedwillraisepolicyratesatleastoncethisyearto4.0%amidpersistentinflation,drivenbystrongAI-relatedinvestmentdemand,beforeanormalizationbackto3.5%inH22027. 3Thegoalpostsareshiftingforcorporates:EarningsheldupinQ12026butthedelayedimpactwillhurtdowntheline.MostEuropeansectorspostedpositiveEPSgrowthinQ1,whileUSearningswerebuoyedbyAI-driventech.Butaprofitabilitysqueezemightbebuilding:Turnovergrowthwasreviseddownfor12outof16sectors,ledbypharma(-2.0ppsto0%),utilities(−1.6pps),andmotorvehicles(−1.3pps).Onlyelectronics(+1.7ppsto11%),information&communicationservices(+0.7pps)andfood&beverages(+0.4pp)buckedthetrend.Theautosectorremainsmostexposedviaelevatednetleveragemeetinghigherrates.Againstthisbackdrop,weexpectglobalinsolvenciestoincreaseby+4%in2026beforeplateauingin2027. Half-Time Outlook 2026-27:AI Holds theScore,Growth Slows to +2.5% (2/2) 4Capitalmarketsareplayingtheadvantage,largelylookingthroughnear-termrisks.USratesshouldgraduallydeclineto4.35%bytheendof2026and4.1%in2027asinflationpressuresandmonetarytighteningfadenextyear.GermanBundswillhoveraround3%amidongoingsupplypressuresfromquantitativetighteningandahighfiscaldeficitaround4%ofGDP–aboveItalyandSpain.EquitiesremainsupportedbynominalgrowthandAIupside,althoughvaluationsleavelittleroomfordisappointmentandrelativevaluebecomesmorerelevant.Afterstrongyear-to-dategains,furtherupsidein2026lookslimitedwithourfull-yearforecastof13%totalreturnfortheS&P500and14%fortheEurostoxx,butin2027weseeongoingsolidperformanceof11%onbothsidesoftheAtlantic.EMstocksareleadingthecharts(29%totalreturnexpectedfor2026)drivenbythestrongweightoftopSouthKoreanandTaiwanesesemiconductorcompaniesintheindex.Creditmarketsshouldcontinuetodeliverattractivecarry,evenasultra-tightspreadsleavevaluationsstretchedandskewrisktothedownside.Risingissuanceandfallinginterestcoverageratiosarelikelytodriveamildwideninginspreadsoverthenexttwoyears–butelevatedcarryshouldstillbeenoughtooffsetthosevaluationlosses.Privatemarketsremainastoryofrisingdispersion,withAI-relatedinfrastructureandhigh-qualityprivatecreditoutperformingmorechallengedsegments. 5Moreshocksahead?Thenumberofrisksaheadhascertainlynotdecreased.AIisdoingtheheavyliftingthatgeopoliticsandfiscalpolicycannot.Butitisalsoconcentrated,unevenlydistributedanditselfasourceofdownsideriskifdeliverydisappointsasitwouldhittrade,investmentandconsumption.Inaddition,globalpolicyuncertaintyremainswellabovetrend,withmanyrisksaheadincludingareloadedescalationofthetradewar,USmidtermelections,asubduedGermanfiscalpushandpolarizationaheadofupcomingelectionsinkeyEuropeancountries.Climaterisksremainomnipresent–thelatestheatwaveinEuropehaspassed,butrisksofasevereElNinoyeararestilllooming.Labormarketsarestilltight,butthemedium-termoutlookismorefragile.InseveralEuropeaneconomies,AI-drivenlayoffscouldoutweighproductivitygains,ultimatelyweighingongrowth.