FY1Q27E预览：云增长与更高利润率保持完好

FY1Q27E Preview: Cloud Growth On Higher Margins Intact; CMR Soft Alicia Yap, CFAAC+852-2501-2773alicia.yap@citi.com CITI'S TAKE Onthe back of soft retail sales data in April-May and muted 6.18promotional campaign, we estimate Taobao/Tmall GMV to slow down toLSD in the June Q. After factoring contra-revenues impact which could bemagnified further this quarter amid 6.18 activities, we forecast CMR todecline by 8.7%yoy vs our expectation of +1% like-for-like growth. Withmore rational competition, we expect loss from Shangou to narrow andforecast China commerce EBITA to be flattish at Rmb38bn. Due to strongdemand, we model Cloud revs to accelerate to 45%yoy with cloud marginimproving to 11.5%. Into CY2H27, we expect a stable/unexciting macro withcounter-revs impact on CMR persisting for a few quarters while cloud revsto accelerate further and maintain high-level growth with low-teens %margin. Post-revision, our TP is adjusted to US$192/HK$191, reflectinglower multiple on AIDC and All Others. Maintain Buy on attractive valuationand AI play. Vicky Wei, CFAvicky.wei@citi.com Nelson Cheungnelson.cheung@citi.com Estimatesrevision–For FY1Q27,we adjust revs/non-GAAP net profit by+0.8%/+8% reflecting lower CMR, offset by higher cloud and all other revs. Narrowerquick commerce loss and improving cloud margins are likely to support higher yoyprofit.For FY27-29E,we adjust our revs/non-GAAP profit by+0.9%/+5%,+0.5%/+6.2% and +0.2%/+6.2%. FY1Q27E preview– We now model total consolidated revs at Rmb269.8bn (+8.9%YoY) and non-GAAP NP of Rmb27.1bn (10.1% margin) vs Bloomberg consensus ofRmb269.2bn/Rmb24.9bn.We model China Ecommerce Group revs to beRmb136.9bn. Of which, we model CMR to decline 8.7% yoy to Rmb81.5bn andestimate quick commerce loss of ~Rmb10bn. We forecast cloud revs to rise +45%YoY to Rmb48.4bn and AIDC revs to be Rmb36.4bn (+4.9% YoY). We forecastconsolidated adj. EBITA to decline -35.3% YoY to Rmb25.1bn or 9.3% margins andChina ecommerce Group EBITA flattish at Rmb38bn or 27.8% margins. We nowforecast cloud EBITA to be Rmb5.57bn or 11.5% margin. We model adj. EBITDA ofRmb37.5bn or 13.9% margins vs previous estimate of Rmb33.96bn or 12.7% margin. Business update–Leadership changes at DingTalk, latest agent and cloudproducts, Shangou UE target, food delivery regulation, 6.18 recap. Business Update & FY1Q27E Preview Leadership changes at Dingtalk & reorg of enterprise AI According to local news report including Sohu dated June 11, Alibaba announced amanagement change where the founding leader of DingTalk, Chen Hang wouldstep down as CEO of the business unit and hand over to Chen Yusen. Alibaba alsoannounced DingTalk would move into a new development cycle fully embracing AI.According to the press report in Sohu, Chen Yusen began his career as a hacker andstarted his own business at 22 right after graduation; at 27, he sold the company hefounded to Alibaba Cloud and is now taking over DingTalk. In 2025, he led thedevelopment of the AI Agent product MuleRun at Alibaba Cloud. ThePaper.cn dated June 11 reported that in recent days, Alibaba has beencontinuously iterating its organizational and management changes, adopting anew formation amid the AI era. Earlier this year, Alibaba successively establishednew types of organizations such as Alibaba Token Hub (ATH) and Token Foundry toincubate AI innovations through small team structures. This has been followed by aseries of innovations like Happy Horse, Happy Oyster, MuleRun, and Qoderemerging rapidly, along with a group of young technical talent distinguishingthemselves. Per another news article (36kr, dated July 3) Alibaba decided to reorganize andconsolidate three of its enterprise-level AI Agent products with desktop AI agenttool “QoderWork” as its foundation and integrate the capabilities of “Wukong” (anenterprise collaboration agent incubated by DingTalk) and “MuleRun” (an agentexecution engine developed by Chen Yusen and team). This could suggest animportant turning point for Ali’s enterprise AI strategy to centralize internalresources and better compete with other desktop agents products like Bytedance’sCoze and Feishu Agent and Tencent’s WorkBuddy. AI and cloud computing update Launch of HappyHorse-1.1 On Jun 23, Alibaba officially released HappyHorse-1.1 which is available onHappyHorse website, Qwen Cloud and AliCloud Bailian platform. Compared to 1.0 version, Alibaba stated that HappyHorse-1.1 features betterdynamic vision, subject consistency, command instruction, visual quality andaudio presentation. HappyHorse-1.1 further improves professional content creationquality, controllability and application efficiency. The 1.1 version also supports 9reference inputs to video to maintain visual quality for merchandise, brands andcharacters. As part of the promotion activity, HappyHorse-1.1 will offer limited sales at 40%discount at Rmb0.54 per second for 720p resolution (vs. standard price of Rmb0.9per second) and Rmb0.72 per second for 1080p resol