全球宏观与市场热点：非美资产表现及驱动因素分析

Jim Reid *** The Extel (formerly II) Global Fixed-Income analyst survey launched this week.Here at DB we would all like to do as well as we can so will be campaigning hard overthe next three weeks. If you've voted before you should now have a ballot. Details ofhow to try to register for a ballot if you haven’t had one before, or instructions on howto vote for me and in what categories can be found here. The main categories I wouldlove a 5-star vote are 1) Global Macro Strategy, 2) Global Economics, 3) DevelopedEurope: Cross Asset Strategy, 4) Developed Europe: Fixed-Income Strategy and 5)Developed Europe: Economics. Many thanks. *** Global Head of Macro and Thematic Research+44-20-754-72943 Henry AllenMacro Strategist+44-20-754-11149 Luke Templeman, CPAResearch Analyst+44-20-754-10130 This year’s “Charts to make you go WOW!” pack also returned this week. It'sdesigned to surprise, challenge, and reframe the big macro and market stories of themoment. It’s become my favourite pack of the year to produce, and I hope you’ll enjoyand go “WOW!” at least once, and preferably a number of times. You can see it hereat the Deutsche Bank Research Institute. On Tuesday 14thJuly, I’ll also be hosting awebinar to run through the pack at 14:00 London time. The link to register is here. Raj BhattacharyyaResearch Associate For most of the past two decades, owning equities outside the US has often madeinvestors question whether diversification or valuations really matter. The ex-USETF in today’s CoTD, taken from the "WOW!" pack, was slightly lower in price termsat the start of 2025 than it was in June 2007, with the EM ETF similar. Over the sameperiod, the S&P 500 nearly quadrupled. While the S&P 500 has performed strongly,the more recent story has been the outperformance of the rest of the world. Whatchanged? Ex-US indices have typically been more heavily weighted towards the “oldeconomy” sectors, like financials, energy, materials and industrials, with lessexposure to the mega-cap tech stocks that powered the S&P 500 through the2010s. However, trends and momentum have shifted since then. Previously unlovedsectors in the traditional economy are now being supported by the shiftinggeopoliticalbackdrop.The renewed focus on defence and industrial self-sufficiency is just one example. In addition, AI-driven capex is spilling over intopower, hardware and materials. These are precisely the sectors where RoW and EMindices tend to be overweight. This is all being accelerated by growing fiscalactivism. Germany’s stimulus is the big DM example. But the trend is growing incountries that comprise the EM indices. In Mexico, a massive investment intraditional-economy rail infrastructure is taking place even as the country focuses 8 July 2026Thematic Research on reducing its budget deficit. As an indicator of the resurgence in the traditionaleconomy, European banks (laggards for nearly 15 years) have massively re-rated onimproved profitability. That comes as expectations that the US dollar’s 2010–2024bull run (around +40%) may plateau after it acted as a persistent drag on unhedgedoverseas returns for dollar-based investors. In 2025, it fell by over 9%, its worst yearsince 2017, even if there has been some reversal this year. That said, it is worth noting that the outperformance of both indices hasincreasingly been driven by tech. The three largest names in both indices in today’sCoTD are now TSMC, Samsung and SK hynix. Nearly 30% of the EM index isconcentrated in these three companies, and in the world index (ex US) it's nearly10%. The top 10 holdings in the world index remain relatively low at 16.8%. By contrast,the EM index has seen a sharp rise in concentration, with its top 10 now accountingfor 39.4% — above the S&P 500 at 36.7%. So, somewhat ironically, buying an EM ETF today is effectively a large tech play.That may be positive or negative, but it means that a typical EM ETF looks verydifferent from what many generalist investors might assume. Appendix 1 Important Disclosures *Other information available upon request *Prices are current as of the end of the previous trading session unless otherwise indicated and are sourced from localexchanges via Reuters, Bloomberg and other vendors . Other information is sourced from Deutsche Bank, subject companies,and other sources. For further information regarding disclosures relevant to Deutsche Bank Research, please visit our globaldisclosure look-up page on our website at https://research.db.com/Research/Disclosures/FICCDisclosures. Aside from withinthis report, important risk and conflict disclosures can also be found at https://research.db.com/Research/Disclosures/Disclaimer. Investors are strongly encouraged to review this information before investing. Analyst Certification The views expressed in this report accurately reflect the personal views of the undersigned lead analyst(s). In addition, theundersigned lead analyst(s) has not and will not receive any compensation