欧洲防务：进入2026年第二季度，看好莱昂纳多、泰雷兹、莱茵金属

European Defense: Into Q2'26 - Long Leonardo, Thales,Rheinmetall European Defense stocks are decoupling after a period of broad performance. Ahead ofQ2’26, we favor self-help stories (Leonardo, Thales) and superior growth (Rheinmetall). Adrien Rabier+44 20 7676 6820adrien.rabier@bernsteinsg.com Leonardo (30 July).We expect another beat-and-raise. We are +5% above consensus onEBITA and expect FCF to improve too. Growth should be broad-based. We would not besurprised to see the 2026 guidance upgraded across all metrics (except FCF). In a morechallenging environment for European defense stocks, Leonardo stands out as a self-helpstory with room for earnings upgrades and re-rating, if execution continues. The stocktrades on 11x EBITDA (vs. 14x for the sector). The correction that followed the surpriseCEO change is an opportunity, in our view, as the strategy should be unchanged. Douglas S. Harned, Ph.D.+1 917 344 8430douglas.harned@bernsteinsg.com Cyriaque Blanchet+44 20 7676 7342cyriaque.blanchet@bernsteinsg.com Specialist Sales Thales (23 July).We expect a solid Q2'26 print, driven by momentum in the core A&Dbusinesses. We are +6% above consensus on A&D, but -6% below on Cyber & Digital.We expect our tactical upgrade to materialize in Q2’26, as we believe Cyber will return togrowth and is no longer material enough to drive downgrades (8% of sales, easy comps andlower expectations). James Brady+44 20 7762 5272james.brady@bernsteinsg.com Rheinmetall (6 August).Q2'26 is the key ST catalyst for Rheinmetall. We expect thecompany to meet its implied +60% topline target. If it does, we see scope for the stock toregain some losses. The next catalyst will be the Arminius Boxer order. We expect the firsttranche to come in full by the end of 2026. This should help rebuild credibility. We are lessconfident about the following ones (end of the decade). And we see risk to LT consensusestimates, even if they have already come down. We are -18% below consensus on 2030EBIT. Yet, at these levels, we believe the risk-reward is attractive for a company that has anunmatched growth profile. Dassault Aviation (22 July).We do not expect particularly strong H1’26 results, due to thesoft Falcon deliveries. Last year’s results pushed the stock down in a similar scenario, butwe believe expectations have been managed more effectively. The key catalyst remains themega Indian Rafale order, which we expect to be finalized by the end of 2026. Longer term,Dassault benefits from unmatched visibility thanks to its Rafale backlog, but we see limitednear-term catalysts post-India order. BAE Systems (30 July).We expect a relatively soft set of H1’26 results, with growth andmargins in line with the annual guidance. The key focus for investors is likely to be the 2027US defense budget, where BAE is well positioned (45% of sales). It will come later in theyear. While we see BAE as a high-quality compounder, we do not expect earnings upgradesbefore the US budget is approved. TKMS (12 August).We saw a tactical opportunity, driven by major order wins (here). Thethesis has played out, and we do not expect large campaigns to be finalized before the endof the year, at the earliest (India, F127). Hence TKMS should revert to a fundamental “show-me” story, which we view as less attractive. We will update our expectations ahead of thequarter after speaking with the company. BERNSTEIN TICKER TABLE ESTIMATE CHANGE IN BOLD DETAILS We summarize our views into Q2’26, after speaking to most companies, in order of tactical preference below: LEONARDO (30 JULY) Another beat-and-raise.We expect Q2’26 results to be strong, and stand +5% consensus on EBITA. We also expect FCFgeneration to be stronger as Leonardo reduces the phasing impact (strong Q4, softer quarters before). We expect the strengthto be driven across all businesses. The acquisition of Iveco implies upside to forecasts on DES, in our view. We expect the 2026guidance to be upgraded across all metrics (except FCF). Combination of earnings upgrades and re-rating.As we perceive the current environment as challenging for the sector,Leonardo stands out for being more of a self-help story. We believe the stock can keep getting estimates upgrades and shouldre-rate if it keeps delivering improving fundamentals. Leonardo is also screening well to resist the “new warfare” narrative, as itsportfolio is skewed to electronics, missiles and air defense. CEO change. In early April, media sources reported that the Italian government intended to replace Leonardo’s CEO RobertoCingolani as part of the regular renewal of boards at state-controlled companies. Leonardo was among the three companiesmentioned (Leonardo, Eni, Enel). The news came as a surprise and the timing was poor, given Cingolani has been running theturn-around story since 2023. And had just hosted a positive Industrial Plan in March, where he dominated all the presentations.Despite the surprise effect and the lack of communication at the time