2026年第二季度欧洲公用事业与清洁能源发电量：除瑞典外水电产量全面下降

European Utilities & Clean Energy: 2Q26 power production - lowerhydro production across the board except in Sweden In this report, we analyse the 2Q26 power generation figures for France, Germany,Austria, Italy, Spain, Portugal, Great Britain, Finland and Sweden, with a particular focuson renewable energy output and gas demand. Overall, solar output increased yoy, drivenalmost entirely by new capacity additions. Hydropower generation was down in allgeographies but Sweden. Wind production was a mixed bag, up in France offshore, GreatBritain, Italy, Finland, Sweden and German offshore - but declining in German onshore,France onshore, Portugal and Spain. French nuclear production saw a 9% increase. Bartlomiej Kubicki+49 69 717 4418bartlomiej.kubicki@bernsteinsg.com Thibault Dujardin, CFA+33 1 58 98 59 16thibault.dujardin@bernsteinsg.com Jorge Alonso Suils+34 915 893 913jorge.alonso@bernsteinsg.com Hydropower generation down in 2Q26 in all geographies but Sweden.Hydropowerdecreased in Portugal (production -42.7%/storage level -8.5%), Spain (-27.2%/ -1.9%),Italy (-25.1%/11.8%), Finland (-14.8%/+3.4%), Austria (including pumped storage,-10.9%/-1.2%), France (-2.4%/-7.2%) and Germany (including pumped storage,production was down -0.4%). On the other hand Sweden saw a production improvement(+2.6%/-21.3%). Note, however, there is a tough comparative effect versus high 2025hydro levels in Spain and Portugal. Rory Graham-Watson+44 20 7676 7093rory.graham-watson@bernsteinsg.com Ken-Ree Choong+44 20 7676 8243ken-ree.choong@bernsteinsg.com Wind production - mixed performance.In 2Q26 wind power output varies acrossEurope once again. A decline in load factor led to reduced output in Germany onshore wind(load factor -2.8pp/generation -12.0%), France onshore wind (-1.5pp/-5.9%), Portugal(-1.6pp/-5.4%) and Spain (-0.5pp/-0.6%). France offshore wind production increased22.1% despite a lower implied load factor (-5.7pp) thanks to new capacity. A similar trendwas observed in German offshore wind (+1.3% power/-2.7pp load). Wind production rosein Great Britain (+7.3%), Italy (+4.8%), Finland (+2.4%) and Sweden (+1.9%). Specialist Sales Gareth Williams+44 20 7762 5256gareth.b.williams@bernsteinsg.com Solar output up in all geographies.In 2Q26, Austria, Spain, France, Portugal, Germany,Great Britain and Italy saw solar production rise by 27.4%, 22.3%, 19.0%, 16.8%, 6.9%,6.2% and 4.5% respectively, thanks to new capacity. Power demand slightly up.Based on Platts data, the 1H26 combined demand ofGermany, France, Italy, Great Britain and Spain amounted to 855TWh, up 0.6% yoy, but6.7% below 1H21 level. At the EU level demand was also up 0.6% yoy, using Eurelectricdata. Based on TSOs data, we estimate that power consumption in 2Q26 was up +1.6%yoy in France, +2.1% in Spain and +1.5% in Germany - which is equivalent at 1H26 levelat -0.5% yoy in France, +1.2% in Spain, and +1.9% in Germany.Gas demand rose in2Q25.We estimate that European gas demand increased 3.1% yoy in 2Q26, with industrialdemand up 3.0%, LDZ (residential and commercial) demand 2.0% higher yoy, and gas-to-power up 5.8% yoy. Alongside this, German industrial gas consumption was up 3.1% yoy in1H26, still 7.4% below 2018-21 average levels. Gas storage levels stand at 50% of totalcapacity, at the bottom of the historical range. Company impact.In our view, Enel should be negatively impacted by lower hydroproduction in Italy. In Spain and Portugal, Iberdrola, EDP and Engie should be the maincompanies impacted by hydropower’s decline, as should Endesa to a lesser extent.Similarly, Verbund should be negatively impacted by lower hydro generation in Austria. BERNSTEIN TICKER TABLE INVESTMENT IMPLICATIONS Company impact.In our view, Enel should be negatively impacted by lower hydro production in Italy. In Spain and Portugal,Iberdrola, EDP and Engie should be the main companies impacted by hydropower’s decline, as should Endesa to a lesser extent.Similarly, Verbund should be negatively impacted by lower hydro generation in Austria. DETAILS In this report, we analyse the 2Q26 power generation figures for France, Germany, Austria, Italy, Spain, Portugal, Great Britain,Finland and Sweden, with a particular focus on renewable energy output, and gas demand. Overall, solar output increasedyoy, driven almost entirely by new capacity additions. Hydropower generation was down in all geographies but Sweden. Windproduction was a mixed bag, up in France offshore, Great Britain, Italy, Finland, Sweden and German offshore - but declining inGerman onshore, France onshore, Portugal and Spain. In the nuclear sector, French production saw an increase of 9.0%. FRANCE Based on TSO data, we estimate French solar output rose 19.0% yoy in 2Q26, thanks to new capacity additions (+23% yoy)offsetting a lower load factor (-3.2pp). Similarly, offshore wind production was up 22.1% yoy, thanks new capacity addition(+49.6%) - with a negative load factor effect (-5.7pp). France’s onshore wind pr