耐克中国线上策略三种情景下的个股影响

China Sportswear Stock implications on three scenarios of Nike China’s online strategy CITI’S TAKEIn our view,Topsports‘ continuous share price decline last Fri (after its clarification announcement on Thur night, seeCiti’s Jun 25 note) indicatesthe market’s pessimistic expectation thatNikewill terminate its onlinedistributorship with its top China retailers (i.e.,Topsportswill lose itsentireNike’s online biz, which represents ~22% of group sales). WeanticipateNiketo give some color on its future China online distributionstrategy upon 4QFY26 results on morning of July 1, HKT, with three likelyscenarios (detailed below). IfNikeconfirms its intention to terminateChina retailers’ online distributorship, we expect positive stockimplication on Chinese & other int’l sports brands (includingAnta/PumaChina,Li Ning, Adidas China) and negative stock implication onNikeChinaeco-system companies. IfNikereiterates its collaboration with topChina retailers for online distribution, we expect a strong rally ofTopsportsand positive implication on otherNike Chinaeco-systemcompanies. Xiaopo Wei, CFAAC+852-2501-2472xiaopo.wei@citi.com Vincent Young+852-2501-2738vincent.young@citi.com Scenario 1: Indicating termination of China retailers’ online distributorship–IfNikeintends to execute the strategy that the market has priced in forTopsports’shares,we expectNiketo operationally lose market shares in China in 27E, with positivestock implication on Chinese & other int’l sports brands (incl,Anta/Puma China,LiNing, Adidas China) and negative stock implication onNike Chinaeco-systemcompanies. In our view,Nike’s China retailers have developed sophisticated anduniqueonline distribution biz models(including store-based live streamingcommerce, store-fulfillment based instant retail, private-domain based e-com).Those online biz with strong “China characteristics” cannot easily be recaptured byNike’s online DTC channel, in our view. With the termination of online biz, its Chinaretailers’ big-sizedNikeoffline stores will also lose appeal to China consumers withan omni-channel reach in the competitive marketplace. Furthermore, almost allChina retailers carryNike’s rival brands (especiallyAdidas) with no brand exclusivityarrangement. China retailers’ loss ofNikeonline distributorship may result in theirshift of resources toward rival brands (incl.Adidasand leading Chinese brands) andlikely more closure of retailers’Nikeoffline stores.Nikemay also lose the strongsupportof China retailers(which have strong local know-how)amid futuregeopoliticaluncertainty.Lastly,Nike’s termination of China retailers’onlinedistributorship (which is intended for its future lift of retail ASP) might be deemed asan action of restricting competition and possibly subject to the anti-trust review ofChina market regulators. All of the above would result in a prolonged period forNiketo recover its brand equity and sales in the China market, in our view. Scenario 2: Reiterating collaboration with top China retailers to optimize Chinaonline distribution– IfNikemgt indicates its intention to continuously collaboratewith its top China retailers, it will be a win-win scenario for bothNikeand its Chinaretailers, withNike’s likely stabilized market share in China in 27E. In our view, areasoftheir possible collaboration include Nike top retailers’(incl Topsports)consolidation of small distributors’ online biz, enhancing differentiated products foronline vs offline channels, and top retailers’ closer monitoring of online pricing in the China Sportswear29 June 2026 whole market. This scenario will have positive stock implication onNike’s top China retailers (Topsports) and otherNike Chinaeco-system companies. Scenario 3: Vague indication on future online distribution strategy.–IfNikemgt fails to give clear direction on its China onlinestrategy, we expect the market to continue to price in the likelihood of Scenario 1, even ifNikeis working towards the directionof Scenario 2. This would have positive stock implication on Chinese & other int’l sports brands (i.e.,Anta/Puma China,Li Ning,Adidas China) and negative stock implication onNike Chinaeco-system companies. Companies Mentioned:adidas (ADSGn.DE; €181.7; 1; 26 Jun 26; 17:30) | Anta Sports Products (2020.HK; HK$68.75; 1; 26 Jun 26; 16:10) | Li Ning (2331.HK; HK$14.92; 1; 26 Jun 26; 16:10) | Nike Inc (NKE.N; US$40.75; 2; 26 Jun 26; 16:00) | PUMA SE (PUMG.DE; €26.8; 1; 26Jun 26; 17:30) | Topsports (6110.HK; HK$1.81; 1; 26 Jun 26; 16:10) If you are visually impaired and would like to speak to a Citi representative regarding the detailsof the graphics in this document, please call USA 1-888-500-5008 (TTY: 711), from outside theUS +1-210-677-3788 Appendix A-1 ANALYST CERTIFICATION The research analysts primarily responsible for the preparation and content of this research report are either (i) designatedby “AC” in the author block or (ii) listed in bold alongside content which is attributable to that analyst. If multi